Trius did a secondary two months before ph 3 trial results. Withiout the secondary, they seemed to have plenty of cash - unless they planned to market the drug themselves. The stock dipped a couple of days and then started to rise. Results were great. Six mos later Cubist bought them out. The cash likely strengthened their bargaining position. Speculation regarding why they didn't wait until after the trial included trial result and macro uncertainty ( it is prudent to raise while you can and the dilution was minimal in the long run) to taking care of institutional friends you can't simply grant options to (eg: the BOD was taken care of very nicely when the deal was done.)
I agree, though it may take a while to shake out.
I disagree re: your take on the 13F. Timing wasn't a coincidence. Buyer(s) want some time to accumulate in the shadows.
Can you believe Pran is up today after those results? Except that the market somehow believes they have shown efficacy - I could have shown the same results with saline - that company is playing out like the two-bit outfit they are.
I am not a regular reader but I learned a long time ago I ignore AF at my peril. He is right about Pran. He is also right about Halo when he put them on his short list of companies likely to be bought out.
Regarding mb posters with hidden agendas, I assume any regular writers such as you or fezz are, at a minimum, biased. You might be paid. I don't care. You both give information I can consider, accept or reject and make this board worth reading. You both bring ideas worth considering and you both, at times, have been ridiculous.
Cool technology. Thanks for the tip. I love new companies to consider and I'll keep an eye on this one. It is too small and too early in development for me at this time. It will need money and I think will raise within a year. They haven't done enough yet to partner, IMO. I would wait to see how that goes. Of course, I could be missing something but my philosophy is to only swing if I can clearly see the pitch.
"Go big or go home."
I guess you aren't a child. You and I are probably the same age. My parents are in their 80s and I also help them with investment recommendations. Regarding portfolio sizes and percentages, you really don't want to compare. I've been doing this a long time. Believe me, though, I will be just as happy as you if CYTK explodes - but I will easily be able to move on if it tanks. Kindly, believe me, you can love a stock too much. I love CYTK. But I love others too. Diversification is for smart investors. I suspect lack of diversification is more often due to laziness than courage. If you actively follow a half dozen promising biotechs and still think the only one for all of your money is CYTK, I would be very surprised.
In the privacy of your own conscience, think about what a failure in CYTK would look like to your wife or parents. Think about what it would do to your dreams. I'm not a short. I'm a successful long term investor, a physician and I actually do own a farm. I make most of my money investing. I diversify. "Stating it as it is." GLTU
We have children disguised as adults on this board. If you HAVE bet the farm on CYTX, I wish you and your parents the best of luck.
Silver and Golong,
I believe I was that physician. I said that way back when TTPH was about half the market cap as DRTX. I've subsequently sold TTPH pretty much at the high, more than doubling my money in a few months. I think its ahead of itself right now. I will get back into it if there is a slide but I still own DRTX simply because, like you, I expect approval this year. My target is 16-20.
Thank you. I did similarly and booked profits on the jump in Jan as well as today. That this would rise at least two bucks from Oct to now, before T results, was an easy call. Now I too will hold thru results. I suspect if it climbs much more, there could again be disappointment if T results don't support a Breakthrough filing. Another pullback on good but less than stellar results could present another buying opportunity.
I'd prefer Blum didn't talk about the possibility of skipping Ph3. Perhaps he feels pressure from ALS patients and advocates to mention it but I'm afraid it can't be trusted as a reason to invest now.
Beezlebub's buddy's bud. :-)
"absurdly cheap valuation" ? I am very long this stock and very happy with today's move but I can explain the bear case.
The drugs CYTK are developing are so unique, there haven't even been trials before with anything like them, much less anything like a "cousin drug" approved. The primary indications, ALS and CHF, have huge markets but the stock market values the likelihood of approval as very low. Preliminary results have been very promising but, on the face of it, that is all there is - promises. In some analyst's eyes there are no Ph 2 results of any significance for any of CYTK's drugs. So, do we feel lucky? We have a kind of binary event coming up in a few mos.
I do feel lucky with CYTK. But it takes a parsing of the data to get there. I won't do that as its been done very well by such analysts as Smith on Stocks. But the shorts got a hold of this stock last Sept after some called the IV OM trial a miss and are only now ducking out just ahead of the T results.
As usual, because of the possibility of lousy data, one doesn't bet the farm on a company like this. Evaluate the risks and rewards and bet accordingly. I use a version of Kelly's formula. good luck.
Your guess is as good as anyone's. The macro environment makes it tough to call.
Why not sell some June 15 puts for about two bucks and use those two dollars to offset the purchase price of some shares purchased today?
IMO, a stop order will simply rob you of your shares some day. When investing in tiny, thinly traded biotech, pick a good company and hold until a certain goal. Otherwise, it is too easy for a large investor to drive down the price and scoop up your shares - not that any such investors are here, yet.
Just looked at it and remembered some research I did over the summer. TLR science is very cool and I owned a company a handful of years ago that got bought out with a lung drug in development (can't remember what co or who bought) but I read a lot about TLR research then and it seems to me now over the years the TLR science kind of plods along.
IDRA doesn't fit my profile mainly in that it doesn't have the resources now to get its lead drug thru trials. I'm usually investing in late Ph2 or Ph3 cos. Sorry for taking up space on the TTPH board.
I'm also a doc and love this drug but I am out today. I've doubled my money here in a few months and I am getting dizzy. I'll be back I closer to approval or if it falls.
I try hard not to think about time when identifying good companies. By my own rule, if I gave you a guess, you should ignore it.
Yeah. Trading is so thin it's tough to get much and will be impossible to get out of if the first trial news isn't great. I'll get my little position over the next few weeks and sit tight.
Did you pick up a bit more HALO at yesterday's dip? CYTK is starting to move. I sold a bit of TTPH yesterday. That one trades thinly too. Holding DTRX through approval this year...
I picked up a little SPHS last week. Still researching though.
I have my full complement of HALO and am conflicted about future corrections - though it seems likely you will get some chance to add in the future. GL2U
Glad to see you here, Lenny. I left a few comments over at SA this AM. Maybe we can figure this out together. I like what I see and soon will look to start building a position as I continue researching.
Off to family time.
I saw your mention of this stock over at the HALO mssg board. Intriguing, thanks. I'm starting my DD today. I am partial to San Diego companies since I spent time at UCSD and my wife at TSRI.
Regarding your concern about the length of trials, I don't think they would be long at all and I love the cash position. That said, they will probably need two Ph 3s but I believe they would go quickly. My questions go to the market PRX302 would try to carve out.
Right now BPH is treated with drugs, minimally invasive procedures, and the SOC, the TURP. For moderate to severe symptoms the TURP and some of the minimally invasive procedures (variations on thermal ablation) give about a 12-15 point decrease on the IPSS. Looking only at the company website and their linked paper, I see they found about a 9 point decrease in IPSS with Ph1&2 trials to date (against a control of 5). Although the injections of PRX302 would be much easier than the above TURP or min invasive procedures, I would feel much better with a result closer to the gold standard. It's also bothersome that there was no dose-related efficacy change measured. The sample size is small though.
Does anyone know if there have been any marketing surveys done with urologists about the niche for this drug? Anyone here a knowledgeable bull who wants to pitch this company? Any mitigating factors I should consider that might increase the estimation of only moderate efficacy? Thanks.