There is a difference between a major medical conference and an investor conference. They don't present new data at the later. I am not following the minutia like some of you guys. Did they say insulin data would be presented at Barclays?
Re: the cellulite study. I don't assign any value to this program at this time. Would love to be surprised but HALO is all about hyaluronidase and creative uses for their recombinant human enzyme.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
my recollection of that slide with the footnote "data not mature" was that is was dated Sept 2013.
I may not be recalling exactly the slide you are talking about but that would resolve the apparent conflict between the CEO's assertion of cleaning up the data and it not being mature. It is also very conceivable that they could be presenting the study as finished with some still surviving. Not all studies wait until everyone has passed.
Nice. I agree Thanks. Although you'd think they would understand this.
one thing I would quibble with is the price. I'd discount it more relative to daptomycin as it will also be competing with IV vanco that could be given by visiting nurses. They'll still make a lot of money. But the point that the insurance company is who needs to be sold is right on.
Completely agree. Many traders were anticiptating unrealistic earnings news and impatiently sold off. We could have more slow quarters but the big boys know HALO is a long term winner with HUGE catalysts due sometime in the next few years. And they know you can't predict when the catalysts will come nor when the market will value the future revenues. And buyout is always a possibility.
Both Hylenex and Humalog are approved and on the market. Hylenex is not approved to be use with any insulin. HALO is lookiing for that label expansion or indication, primarily for when insulin is used with a pump. The step after that, and further away, will be the trials for a premixed Hylenex/insulin conbination - similar in concept to the premixed HALO/Roche products.
Likely to go down tomorrow as the impatient move on.
News to me: no interim analysis on PegH - results likely to take years.
Long and strong if a little bored
that's about what I'm thinking too
Yikes? Really? LOL cheap shot Mr pharmacist. Please don't feel threatened by me. We can work together.
Unfortunately, we ARE the outpatient docs for scores of people. I may see the same patient multiple times over the course of a month or two. When Doxy, Bactrim, or Clindamycin don't work, IV Vanco is started and I follow levels and the pt until off. Our ID guys work with us in this clinic. If a PCP exists, they don't get Involved. I "turf" them nowhere. Wish I could. Anyhow, Dalbavancin could help a great deal.
The original question regards relative worth of the Trius drug vs the Durata drug. Both companies are/were essentially one trick ponies. Trius sold for about 700 million. (I now count my hoard of CVRs as worthless since it isn't in Cubist's interest to move along ted for other indications too fast). For many reasons, but primarily because I believe ted will eventually replace Zyvox (even generic) for most indications, I think ted is a more valuable drug than dal. By my calculations, that puts the max cap on Durata at something less than that.
I own a bunch of DRTX. I'd love to be convinced the ceiling is higher. Let's bring this discussion back to that. What do you think?
Re: serious MRSA infections: Vanco's MICs are generally rising, Cubicin does not work well in the lungs, and tedizolid's pulmonary concentrations are multiples of Zyvox's. When the studies are done for other indications, it should be easy to conclude even from the usual non-inferiority type studies that the Trius drug is superior when treating MRSA pneumonia. If you have clear superiority in treating pneumonia, it will be the first drug pushed in sepsis while the work-up ensues. The ABSSSI indication is a foot in the door. Tedizolid is a safer drug than Zyvox and daptomycin. It should find its way to the top of the list for the most serious MRSA indications.
That said, while the intensivists are using ted more often in the ICUs upstairs, I will likely be using dalbavancin much more often in my ED downstairs. ABSSSI is very common and we have an infusion clinic right along side the ED for infusions - often vancomycin for those lower leg cellulitis cases that don't respond to PO drugs but are stable enough to be treated as an outpatient. I will be very happy to give an infusion once per week (or just once) instead of seeing a patient return for several hours per day x 7 days or be visited by a nurse for the same.
One thing to watch out for in comparing relative worth of tedizolide and dalvancin is the promise the former has in treating MRSA sepsis and pneumonia. It's pharmacology suggests it will be superior to daptomycin, Zyvox, or IV Vanco. The sub acute skin infection indication is the foot in the door for both but only Ted has the likelihood of being the best drug in a crisis.
That said, I'm an ER doc who can easily see using lots of dalvancin.
Good news from that biotech mecca, Novato ;-)
They seem to have good people but my cursory glance failed to provide understanding of their science, market, or biz plan. Did they data mine for the current results? I'll look some more later.
And I'm still a skeptic with Pran. But it looks like you've had a lot of opportunity to make some $$ there too! Good luck.
For Pete's sake, dctrig, give it a rest. You've mentioned this move a dozen times since and it was a good one! But you talk like people only own two stocks; out of CYTK and into ETRM. Develop a portfolio and own different stocks for different reasons.
How do you feel about buying back into CYTK now? It doesn't have to be with all of your money... :-)
A while back, Genentech did something like that when adjusting its relationship to Roche. I loaded up and it paid off nicely over the following year or two. I suspect allowing current shareholders to participate would be too complicated, too expensive, not clean in that the offering would drag out, and there wouldn't be a guarantee enough shares got to the money guys. Gotta keep them greased if you want to do business.
Trius did a secondary two months before ph 3 trial results. Withiout the secondary, they seemed to have plenty of cash - unless they planned to market the drug themselves. The stock dipped a couple of days and then started to rise. Results were great. Six mos later Cubist bought them out. The cash likely strengthened their bargaining position. Speculation regarding why they didn't wait until after the trial included trial result and macro uncertainty ( it is prudent to raise while you can and the dilution was minimal in the long run) to taking care of institutional friends you can't simply grant options to (eg: the BOD was taken care of very nicely when the deal was done.)
I agree, though it may take a while to shake out.
I disagree re: your take on the 13F. Timing wasn't a coincidence. Buyer(s) want some time to accumulate in the shadows.
Can you believe Pran is up today after those results? Except that the market somehow believes they have shown efficacy - I could have shown the same results with saline - that company is playing out like the two-bit outfit they are.
I am not a regular reader but I learned a long time ago I ignore AF at my peril. He is right about Pran. He is also right about Halo when he put them on his short list of companies likely to be bought out.
Regarding mb posters with hidden agendas, I assume any regular writers such as you or fezz are, at a minimum, biased. You might be paid. I don't care. You both give information I can consider, accept or reject and make this board worth reading. You both bring ideas worth considering and you both, at times, have been ridiculous.
Cool technology. Thanks for the tip. I love new companies to consider and I'll keep an eye on this one. It is too small and too early in development for me at this time. It will need money and I think will raise within a year. They haven't done enough yet to partner, IMO. I would wait to see how that goes. Of course, I could be missing something but my philosophy is to only swing if I can clearly see the pitch.
"Go big or go home."
I guess you aren't a child. You and I are probably the same age. My parents are in their 80s and I also help them with investment recommendations. Regarding portfolio sizes and percentages, you really don't want to compare. I've been doing this a long time. Believe me, though, I will be just as happy as you if CYTK explodes - but I will easily be able to move on if it tanks. Kindly, believe me, you can love a stock too much. I love CYTK. But I love others too. Diversification is for smart investors. I suspect lack of diversification is more often due to laziness than courage. If you actively follow a half dozen promising biotechs and still think the only one for all of your money is CYTK, I would be very surprised.
In the privacy of your own conscience, think about what a failure in CYTK would look like to your wife or parents. Think about what it would do to your dreams. I'm not a short. I'm a successful long term investor, a physician and I actually do own a farm. I make most of my money investing. I diversify. "Stating it as it is." GLTU
We have children disguised as adults on this board. If you HAVE bet the farm on CYTX, I wish you and your parents the best of luck.