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Trius Therapeutics, AŞ Message Board

afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine 111 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Mar 28, 2006
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  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Apr 4, 2016 7:49 PM Flag

    I think The Street shares inside information with that other giant of stock analysis, Zachs :-)

    Reviewed By: TheStreet Ratings on March 31, 2016.

    Report Summary: TheStreet Ratings team rates Novavax Inc as a Sell with a ratings score of D.

    Report Snippet: We rate NOVAVAX INC (NVAX) a SELL. This is driven by multiple weaknesses, which we believe should have a greater impact than any strengths, and could make it more difficult for investors to achieve positive results compared to most of the stocks we cover. The company's weaknesses can be seen in multiple areas, such as its feeble growth in its earnings per share, deteriorating net income, disappointing return on equity, weak operating cash flow and generally disappointing historical performance in the stock itself.

    Rating: 2.00 out of 5, 'D' Sell.

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Apr 4, 2016 10:07 AM Flag

    Assuming good ph3 results, the money assoc with the ex-N.A. partnership late this year should make any further dilution very unlikely.

  • Reply to

    Timeline of

    by a_day_in_the_life_67 Apr 3, 2016 4:23 PM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Apr 3, 2016 5:47 PM Flag

    a day in the life -

    Your price to sales ratio of 3 is off. Biotech is usually in the 5-15 range. A smaller company growing fast will be at the upper range.

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine by afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Apr 3, 2016 3:13 PM Flag

    wiley had mentioned the ph2 immune data was late. Does anyone have a reference to back that statement? I don't follow GSK and don't know what they have guided on their RSV development. Appreciate it.

    The Darius hire may give us a clue on this one, though. I doubt he would jump to a company he knew was going to have its hands full with BP competition on its lead product. Seems like a decent indicator.

  • Reply to

    NVAX Prospects for independence

    by rzrbackrob Apr 3, 2016 12:29 PM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Apr 3, 2016 3:07 PM Flag

    mostly agree, rsrbackrob. but I wouldn't expect an annual RSV vaccine to be priced anywhere near the, basically, once in a lifetime Prevnar vaccine.

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Apr 3, 2016 3:05 PM Flag

    anchovies:

    I think the basher Jeff character spelled the last part of his name "man," not "men." One of them is a copycat trying to confuse the board. I doubt figuring it out is worth anyone's time.

    fotd

  • Reply to

    Stan Sellin

    by belkin2468 Apr 1, 2016 5:45 PM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Apr 2, 2016 11:37 AM Flag

    "Kids and grand-kids" sounds too much like Latrelle Sprewell's infamous words when turning down that $21 million contract with the comment that he "has a family to feed." This is about diversification.

    I think that the date on which this happened, March 30, exactly one and two years post vesting dates, makes the theory that this was pre-planned most likely. And if this was pre-planned, it tells us nothing about upcoming events. In the light of Erck's overall holdings, it is a non-event.

  • Reply to

    Stan Sellin

    by belkin2468 Apr 1, 2016 5:45 PM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Apr 1, 2016 6:20 PM Flag

    Listen, he has a lot more than 500,000 options left. And he was just awarded 900,000 more last month with the right to sell in the 4s in six months.

    While I would love it if no one ever sold, the fact of the matter is we have a make or break situation six months in the future. Stan doesn't know what the data will show. Stan may have every confidence in his company, but if I'm his financial advisor and I saw that 90% of my client's wealth was in one investment, I'd be looking to help him diversify in any way I could. Stan can't sell at any old time. He may know that the company is a month away from news on flu, or some initial top line look at unblinded results. This may be the only time he could sell between now and September. We don't know. But we do know he has A LOT of skin in this game. Taking $2 million off the table now is no big deal.

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Mar 31, 2016 11:33 PM Flag

    OH, OH, you almost forgot... you will not post again... But you did....

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Mar 29, 2016 2:59 PM Flag

    birdy,

    I wouldn't think Dr Fries would use the Corporate Presentation at a scientific meeting. It is clearly aimed at investors. But I am looking forward to news coming out of the meeting over the next few days.

    fotd

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Mar 28, 2016 9:44 PM Flag

    The write-up also confuses NVAX's RSV vax with its flu vax. Not sure I like the company NVAX is in in the article either.

    As always, though, thanks for the link.

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Mar 24, 2016 12:13 PM Flag

    Good question. I think the biopro explanation from last fall seems most likely; that all flu production must be optimized before pandemic goes forward and that they are "close." A lot of future plans depend on getting flu production right now. We have quad flu, then bird flu, then combo all dependent on getting common production steps perfected.

    Like with that Michelin 3 Star kitchen's soufflé, the flu vax phase 2s have shown that NVAX can make a flu vaccine that works well. Now it's about making 100 million efficiently and that would likely be more of an engineering problem than a discovery problem. In other words, just a matter of time.

    Of course, ML and Henry know this business and I'd love more of their speculation on what is likely being testing in animals right now.

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Mar 23, 2016 11:03 PM Flag

    Thank you, Framus!

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Mar 22, 2016 6:31 PM Flag

    I agree. It's time to recover.

    I was lucky, I got out in the 20s because I thought valuation was too high (based upon recent buyouts of Trius and DTRX) and kicked myself at it went higher without me. But I never dreamed the ph3 for UTI would fail. Now TTPH is selling for less than cash?!! in this era of dire NEED for new abs, the FDA will be kind to this company and a way forward will be presented.

    I liked the under-promise tone at the Roth Conference. Been buying since.

    Good luck.

  • Reply to

    Here's a novel thought

    by hones1abe Mar 19, 2016 4:00 PM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Mar 19, 2016 7:06 PM Flag

    abe,

    A similar thought: It seems NVAX is well respected for the basic science behind their vaccines but I've wondered if NVAX stands much chance to win any pandemic contract before they have production facilities that show capability to manufacture millions of doses of vaccine from an expression system untested at that level.

    A year from now, when NVAX is gearing up to produce, perhaps, 10 million doses of RSV vaccine for the following season, I would think BARDA and the WHO and others would feel more comfortable putting the responsibility of a pandemic contract in their hands. Until then, I'm guessing the best vaccine for Ebola from NVAX is like the best soufflé from that that Michelin three star kitchen. Clearly the best, but can they make ten million of them?

    A few years from now, with the annual production of tens of millions of doses of RSV, all the potential of NVAX basic science will be realized as they will then have the whole package. I hope they can stay independent that long so that I can read some Fortune or Time magazine cover story about the Apple of the new vaccine space.

  • Reply to

    Delays, delays, delays ... Are a good thing

    by blenson2manx Mar 18, 2016 12:03 PM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Mar 18, 2016 1:19 PM Flag

    There was some YMB discussion of this recently and I thought it somewhat plausible - straight to combo. But didn't they mention at the recent meeting Quad flu ph3 is on the schedule? I'd have to review to be sure, but surely someone else here remembers that mention? Of course, that seems much more likely. They don't need to take any shortcuts now.

  • Reply to

    These new hires are not a bluff

    by blenson2manx Mar 17, 2016 10:54 AM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Mar 17, 2016 1:55 PM Flag

    SP this low helps the price of his options.

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Mar 17, 2016 2:24 AM Flag

    Thanks honest1abe. Could they have sold some of the capped calls? They would then likely buy shares.

  • Reply to

    Erck & Dimon

    by mansman1100 Mar 16, 2016 11:02 AM
    afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Mar 16, 2016 6:39 PM Flag

    ...and Erck NOT selling after ph2 now? Maybe they know something?

  • afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine afriendofthedevilsafriendofmine Mar 16, 2016 5:45 PM Flag

    I have. Based on a slide from that presentation, I asked you if the French plant had enough capacity to handle growth in platelet kits since they only can increase by a factor of 4. Cerus isn't selling many right now and I'd think we should hope for a greater increase in market share than four times the current production. I didn't really get an answer from this YMB and when I have time I'll start reading the SEC docs and APs to get a feel for current kit production.

    But this second question relates to studies done in the past. Why would they have discussed it at Cowen this year? I recall no discussion about antibody titers nor the first RBC studies.

    Forgive me, I am relatively new to this company and building a position. YMB can be a good tool to help with DD. I will find my answers eventually but would love a shortcut. Thanks again.