I would say something a little different -- there is still no explanation as to why it was prolonged till June 2016 when (1) MHRA said their results would be available "shortly" one month ago, and (2) when Silimed has a separate factory that hasn't burned down. Both the MHRA and the German agency I have contacted remain silent or refuse to answer these simple questions.
Ah, a blood clot, but not a death... and yes, I saw the other one but she wasn't on Zafgen's drug. Anyway, there have been some interesting comments on the Seeking Alpha bearish article as to what may have happened.
Legally, it is often not easy to make purchases as an insider. There is a very small window where management can do that since they know intimate details about the business outsiders don't -- I think that window would come right after an ER, since investors would then know essentially the same thing management does. Besides that, management (i.e.: the CEO) has quite a lot of shares already.
@a_buzzerio: PWSAUSA's FB page, right? Can you tell me under which post (date/title?) that message is under? I would like to see for myself, but I can't find it.
Well if you're going to buy calls or puts you should be buying out of the money otherwise it is a bit of a waste imo.
You can just hold and if it will be up by next year (which I strongly believe it will) you will be fine.
Or, the best way to buy some insurance that it won't be up technically is to buy out of the money puts, hopefully on a large volume day to make sure the spread isn't awful.
If you buy calls you are betting that the stock will go up to a certain point at a certain time, so it is a gamble and the opposite of insurance...
"What will it take for you to finally admit that this drug is causing harm?"
How about causation?
I wonder if the safety study will have any new efficacy data. What do you think?
The other question is something a few shorts around here have been passing around: if the 12-month safety study will be released before March 31, why wait until Q3 to submit an NDA? (Does it really take 6 months to prepare an NDA?)
I am just speculating here, but I think it is because it was so thinly traded before it dropped that the mean (for the year) would be much smaller than 20. Looking at the volume chart (estimating), it seems that in one day (Sept. 24) the volume was more than the entire rest of the year. Then, (again speculating) maybe these algos that are shorting also believed that a 50% fall in a day would mean another slow 50% fall to get to a "true value" of $5... so yeah, algorithms. :P