Assumptions get you slaughtered. Aside from your cheerleading (which isn't working...), the world doesn't seem as rosy in TRIBland anymore. These recent earnings aren't showing good organic growth even from all their acquisitions, and I read a lot more from their press releases about what would have happened in product or segment X and been better if things were perfect each reporting period. They aren't perfect each season or reporting period.
There is a reason the stock touched 14.00 today, ironically about half it's value from 3/4/14 when it hit 28.06. That's 7 month, and a 50% haircut. Fidelity dropped a lot of stock OUT of their portfolio, and obviously, so did quite a few other institutional buyers. And why not? In the face of this decline, it's prudent to not marry a stock because of the lure of a 37 dollar target by some sell-side analyst, or the lure of an eye-popping buyout conjecture value.
2016 now looks like Troponin's approval year. I don't think 2015 will actually record the FDA win for TRIB, unless they can accelerate it somehow.
That's a real long wait.
here are the options:
1) The Q4 quarter was good
2) The Q4 quarter was great
3) The approval came through for EU testing, as they said it would (met their Q4 goal). We just don't know about it yet.
4) Other facets of their business were better than they expected (Premier product sales)
What I'm saying is - a whole host of good things could be in the pipeline, waiting for them to tell us about.
I'm excited and encouraged by the volume this morning, and the direction/magnitude of the move.
Q2, 2013 Earnings transcript available at seekingalpha
I'm going to weigh in too. This makes sense. HIV, Lyme disease, etc. seem to be mature products in stable markets. Trib's struggling to show earnings growth 5% in these items (and the others tests they have). So they have busted out with 2 new markets (Premier, Fiomi) which are showing incredible promise to "hit the cover over the ball" as they say in the baseball world near the end of this year, into 2014-1015. That why the stock is up here, and attempting to go higher with the promise of two gangbuster products in the markets for important diagnostic tools.
So they now have all this cash doing nothing, and they've doubled the dividend to .20 in 2 years, and still have a boat-load of $$$ in the bank, an have free cash flow of 1 million/month doing what they're now doing.
What's wrong with using cash that earns nothing, for something a business in a market that will grow 20% a year? Pretty good thing in my book. Earnings are accretive immediately, making our bottom line look better.
So far, I like it.
I checked a few site (briefingdotcom and googlefinance) and neither shows anything. I also check Trinitys website but nothing was there either. I think July 12 is kinda early for them, considering their quarter just closed less than 10 days ago. I think more like the end of the month of July, or early August seems more consistent with the timeframe they've demonstrated over the last few years of reporting that I've witnessed.
Lots of interesting stuff going on now. Tomorrow is the annual meeting, and the vote on the dividend. We all know that it is highly probable that it will "Pass" and be delivered in June, as per the past 2 years of evidence on dividend voting.
Technically, we jumped over resistance of 16.55, and now that acts as a support level. Fib retracement from the run starting on May 8 to May 21 or May 22 indicate that the 38% retracement level is 16.52 (about where our 16.55 support is...) or the 50% retracement is about 16.40.
The dividend play of .20 cents may come into play soon, too (if it passes) as the stock goes ex-dividend and some or all of that comes out of the stock.
agreed. they're making their commitments. The Fiomi news is good too.
We are able to announce that our high sensitivity Troponin I test is now demonstrating performance characteristics which fully meet the FDA guidelines for Troponin I. Consequently, we have declared design freeze on both the Troponin I assay and related instrument.
The NASDAQ website lists adds and subtracts from institutional holders in Q1, 2013, as well as other previous quarters. Royce and a few other holder disposed of some shares. It's all part of the ebb and flow, since TRIB has almost 50% of it's stock in institutional hands. Yes there was a big swoon up to 19, but obviously some big firepower took it up there,and does strongly believe it's not only going back, but higher.
So I guess the "it's worth 21 now" and 24 in the future is going to be on hold for a bit, eh? The good news is that we get our dividend rate back to 1.0%,with he .15/ADR now at a stock price of 15 or so dollars. :)
sorry what i meant to say was they owned 500K shares before and then added 1.062 million to that in Q4 2012, making 1.549 million total now that they own.
All ya have to do is to read the conference call transcription, as it explains all the approval timelines and plans. Nothing magical here. They lay it all out. This "liftoff" isn't because of an unknown "big" someting or other. It's because they laid out a plan that makes sense with products plan timelines, and regional expansion goals. They got asked hard questions by analysts, and provided cogent replies that made sense. Those same analysts represented to their clients that TRIB's plans make sense, so there are now multiple interested parties in buying shares. No rocket-science about any of that. A takeover is always an unknown... but that's not why we have a good week last week.
I think you're on the right track. If these tests get approved on the timeline they think they will, and if they get approvals in the markets they want for them (US, China, etc), any offer goes much higher, IMHO.
People are looking at this sleepy little stock that was under 10 dollars a few years ago, and 1 dollar 4 years ago and they recognize the potential. That's why there is an almost vertical climb in the PPS in the last few weeks. It's grossly undervalued where it is now and the risk reward opportunity is huge.