To those the good old days of brokers recommending stocks, coincidentally and w/o any 'interest' at all:
The offering is expected to close on November 19, 2013, subject to customary closing conditions. Barclays Capital Inc. is acting as the sole book-running manager for the offering, William Blair & Company L.L.C is acting as the lead manager for the offering and Needham & Company, LLC and Roth Capital Partners, LLC are acting as co-managers for the offering.
Sales and comps mean nothing if you aren't making money. They doubled the estimated loss. Where do you think they are going to find these 'gems' to sell that no one else can? ROST just reported and they guided down for 4Q saying it will be the most competitive and promotinal Christmas in a long while. We will all know on Jan. 14 but I can't see them turning this around, if I am wrong your right, so one of us is going to be okay, and as much as I see your are approaching this reasonably I just can't see what they are going to do 'magical' that will make that happen.
Be careful what you "wish" for, you should get another chance in the 11's real soon. I wouldn't buy long but it's your money to do with as you like. I just would strongly advise, at the very least, to wait to see some progress before you do that. Right now the entire price, at these levels, is based on some one's reputation and, regardless of how good he is, he is facing a monumental task of turning around a retailer that has lagged behind for a long time. And really has lost it's raison d'etre for being in business, at all.
Wow, that's fantastic that you can margin this stock, in point of fact, it's more than fantastic it's unbelievable because there is no broker or brokerage firm in the world that will margin any stock under $5. But as the Mad Hatter said to Alice at her 'unbirthday' party, a word means what I want it to mean. Let us know when you wake up.
KM was from TJX she knew how to play the closeout game. She was solely responsible for keeping them in business and she got them out of debt. These new guys came in, hyped up the bs, got the price of the stock up to $15 based on absolutley nothing but that she was a bad guy and we are the good guys. Well, these good guys don't know diddle about off pricing. Any one who owns this stock long, please before you lose any more money, ask any person you know of the female persuasion, which they would rather shop Home Goods or Tuesday Morning, and even better what would it take to get them to leave HG? Or, do yourself a big money saving favor, and go into a HG and then go into a TUES store and you decide. This is retailing Darwinism 101 the old, tired and useless get eaten and die.The strong survive take your TUES $ and buy ROST or TJX, which even though they are at all time high pe's will be double the price they are today in three years, and by then, TUES will be long gone.
Excellent post based the reality of the situation. And when the arrows start coming and they will, ask the archers to post some facts and not the usual hero worship.
And you don't think that buying puts takes gonads. Try it some time and let me know, after a stock doubles it's estimated loss, and the stock goes up (as TUES did) how long you can go before you change your underwear. All the personal shots aside I have done nothing but consistenly tell everyone that would listen that, from my retail background and experience, that TUES was not going to make it.
You want a successful retail CEO, Mike Balmuth, at ROST, that's a retail stock I have been in since '98, compare your "new CEO" to him, cause that's his competition to say nothing of Carol at TJX. TUES is not competiting against Joanna's, this is the bigs.
I'll bet you don't grow any sour apples, do you? I would like to thank GB for another blind kick in the balls, first using all funds for R & D so as to show no eps and now this. As long as he runs these companies and he can obfuscate and get away with it, he will continue this bs.He may get MGIC to $150 (3 years after he said he would) and he may get SPNS to $150 as well, The big test for him as it has always been, can the CFO type-personality grow the revs? Does he know how to market, he couldn't grow the software at MGIC and even with all the new wonderful products at SPNS he can't seem to make $. A lot of doubt remains as to whether he can grow revs, that is except for Fuji, who is starting to think of ways to make apples into Kood-Aid for the Reverend GB.
This just keeps getting better I looked at the bottom of the TUES page on my Morgan Stanley account and they have two analysts they quote, from Reuters, as following TUES and they are estimating 2 Q eps, which is Xmas period for TUES, at 49 cent for the Q. Oh, my, oh, my, there is going to be a blood bath when they come up short on that one, I am personally estimating they will be lucky to break even. Any idea when they will report those figures? I am thinking maybe mid Feb? Thankfully, my puts have a date of Mar 14.
Becker alone sold 255,000 at 12.81, most def, would not take that as a positive sign, can't imagine him thinking that Christmas will be a blow out. It will go to $5 before any one ever sees $15 and the CEO is telling you, no he is shouting to you, get out, as I am. The 35 cents estimate should be a one liner in some comedians routine.
Yes, I agree but chval and it being a shunda aside it is embarrassing so much more so because these suits are baseless, unfounded and totally without merit and the bloodsuckers are all chevrah, gee remember when that used to be lanstman?
Absolutely the truth, GB was a G-d send when he first came back to MGIC after being the CFO, he is a numbers man and got the company back to a real solid firm base. But marketing and how to get MGIC software to the masses forgetaboutit.
Wow, you took the words out of my last 20 posts, there is no way they can compete with ROST and TJX. "Period." (to quote Obama.)
I do not "speculate" about closeout merchandise, I am softlines manufacturer who sells to all three, and all of these stores have 80% production goods in their stores. Do you possibly believe any manufacturer could stay in business supplying 3600 stores with 'closeouts' there are not enough of these goods in the world to keep that many stores stocked on a regular basis which is why they have to buy production and not wait for the few closeouts that exist.
While not as heavily as you, I am, for me, very heavily invested in SPNS. I can't for the live of me understand something and perhaps you and explain it to me. SPNS has some very strong products, including the two new ones, that you mention in your post, Decision and the Retirement Recoding Keeping, both of which are proprietary, I would assume. With all of this wonderful future that supposedly exists with SPNSand forgetting that they won't increase the eps to aid long-suffering shareholders because they have decided to invest R & D to develop these "wonderful new produsts" can you please explain to me why their gross margin dropped over 5.5%?
Couldn't agree more. I am certainly not a techie, but every single tech solution they have touted over the last 4-5 years show how just never, never ever happens. They have never had a tech break out product in that time. After reading your post I see the problem no one there has any clue what to bring to market to increase their software revs and that has been the case forever. The only growth comes from the consulting, the software biz has been stuck in place for 25 years.
You answered your own question MGIC is only 50% a software company the overwhelming share of the growth in the past few years has come from the consulting acquisitions. If you are ever planning on MGIC achieving software pe's it would be the first time in 13 years that has happened. MGIC is now a very steady small cap slow grower, with a 3% divi. There is NEVER a break out Q eps-wise and waiting for that will only frustrate you more. And that's if any one can figure out the GAAP, NON-GAAP, and other incredibly confusing bs they report. Forget the headline what was the actual growth, 3%?
Proving the point that there are not a lot of "closeouts" out there that are not procuced against orders from TUES itself, and not 'department stores closouts' Again, none of them ROST, TJX, TUES have any more than 20% goods in the store that are not produced speficially for them. And TUES is last in line after TJX and ROST so if they do get anything it is only what the others have first refusal of.
I am short the stock and have litte hope for it's survival as ROST and TUES are the toughest competitors out there, and to think the MIchael's people, who competed against Joanna stores, is going to take market share away makes no sense to me.
This idea of a "closeout" business is not reality. I sell to both TJX and ROST and the even though they have the public convinced that they dieal in closeouts, seconds, irregs, and merchanidise that department stores have canceled, at the most what they call "special purchases" makeup 20% of their mix.The other 80% of the mix is what is called "production" and that is what the supposed "closeou" biz is today. Ralph Lauren's bigest customer is TJX they have a special collection made just for TJX.
When KM came to TUES she brought TJX people who know the business and apparel is where the $ is made, the idea that a hardliine reatiler like Michael's people can turn around a soft lines biz is not only ludcrious but will end in 'closiing out' all TUES stores. Period. Operationally, they can change the stores but $ is made from merchandise not from new cash registers.