Here is a short assessment why my shares are basically in a lock box;
Virtually every analyst out there will have 2015 consensus EPS of $7.50.That' s a conservative number and we know, AAPL could easily beat. But use $7.50.
Current PE is 13.5.
That's ridiculous and doesn't take ANY growth into account. Now with Apply Pay, as a new business service, any prudent analyst must assign some additional growth.My VERY conservative increase brings the PE to 15 from 13.5.
I am not adding ANYTHING for Watch. Nothing.
15 PE X $7.50 EPS (est 2015)= $112.50
Add the NET $20 cash and you have $132.50
That's with conservative EPS, conservative PE growth of 9% (13.5 to 15)
And NO revenue from watch.
$132.50 is the FMV NOW!!!!!
Impatience is the #1 reason for losing out on winners.
You MUST relax.
You want wild gyrations and pops up 10 pts?
I was going to say "In 6 months all will be happy", but I should know better.
Most small retail investors are NEVER happy.
Don't even watch it.
Let Tim Cook continue to execute on 8 cylinders and enjoy what's happening, unfolding in front of the world stage.
Realize,they are not a 1 trick pony.
And, they WILL be the first TRILLION dollar company!
DOn't even give bashers or shorts any attention. Just relax and enjoy.
My bottom line is accurate and conservative.He is pizzed he is short or sold out.
Current multiple of 13.5 will HAVE to be raised given new product/services = ApplePay and Watch.
Let's take a LOW rise and get to 15x earnings.
7.50 x 15 = 112.50 + NET $20 cash = $132.50
THAT is my 12 mo.conservative target.
Staking my rep on it.
Fubar-these pisants on these boards don't understand, nor do they matter.
A year fromnow they'll be saying it'll drop to $150 on earnings...............LOL
The pundits are saying at least a 4% move based on options action.
So, $95 or $103 pick'em.
I say you will be surprised.........
continue to be the most sought after tech company now and in the future!
He will be.
And we are AND will be shareholders!
The beauty of it all is we are being ignored for the most part.
Funds want to get in lower and are hoping for a continuation of a tech sell off with a bad report.
If earnings come in ANY number under $1.30,it will be sold off.
If they come in higher, say $1.40 + AND an exciting forward guidance, it could explode.
Just my op.
IBM report was terrible. Software sales were bad. Hardware, bad. China, worse than ever expected. Tech getting hit on all sides due to lower revenues, lower earning and forward guidance revised downward.
Which leads up to AAPL.
If they miss, depending on the miss, we drop to $90-95.
BUT,if we beat, every freak'n fund will increase their stake.
Upgrades galore and importantly, Funds are UNDERWEIGHT AAPL right now.
It could be a massive buying spree, and flight to safety. Safety in a tech giant. And $105-108 tomorrow, with $120 on the 6 mo. horizon.
Place your bets.
I placed mine.
GLTA longs. Ready for the next ride!
Ialso believe the street will be SHOCKED in a positive way on Tuesday 21st.
Gown a few up a few, in 3 months, we will be over $120 IMO.