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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

agtavy 55 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 3, 2014 6:25 PM Member since: Nov 3, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Previous post

    by buyuranium Sep 3, 2014 3:38 PM
    agtavy agtavy Sep 3, 2014 6:25 PM Flag

    Hi.

  • Reply to

    What does yesterday's new 52 week high tell us?

    by buyuranium Aug 28, 2014 7:46 AM
    agtavy agtavy Sep 3, 2014 9:47 AM Flag

    Having watched GRZ daily for years, there was no point where share holders cashed out. No price drop or high volume occurred to support that statement. Steelhead and Greywolf had, and still have, large positions. One or both renegotiated the terms of the debt they hold.

    The stock is near a multi-year high.

    The lack of volume is the biggest curiosity.

  • Reply to

    What does yesterday's new 52 week high tell us?

    by buyuranium Aug 28, 2014 7:46 AM
    agtavy agtavy Sep 3, 2014 6:51 AM Flag

    The low volume remains a curiosity. Each day brings us closer to a final decision but yesterday's volume of the US shares was 1,120 compared to a 30-day average of 21,502. The Canadian shares traded a little better than 50% of normal volume.

  • Reply to

    What does yesterday's new 52 week high tell us?

    by buyuranium Aug 28, 2014 7:46 AM
    agtavy agtavy Aug 28, 2014 8:15 AM Flag

    IMO, after months and months (even years) of the same pattern of low volume, it means absolutely nothing. Factor in the huge bid/ask spread due to iliquidity and that backs up my argument.

    The recent intra-day high was probably more coincidental than anything else and had nothing to do with any pending award.

    Several days of consistently high volume would be a better indicator of what the future holds.

  • Reply to

    Happy Monthiversary

    by knowledgefreesus Aug 24, 2014 9:02 PM
    agtavy agtavy Aug 25, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    Thanks for clarifying, Knowledge.

  • Reply to

    Happy Monthiversary

    by knowledgefreesus Aug 24, 2014 9:02 PM
    agtavy agtavy Aug 25, 2014 11:31 AM Flag

    knowledge, what numbers are you using for debt and shares outstanding?

    felix, I'm sure you know, no matter what the award is, it won't necessarily translate into a certain share price based on numbers. The price per share will be determined by the demand for shares on the open market. We could get a $1.4 billion award and if the market yawns, nothing happens to the share price unless GRZ offers a special dividend or buyback.

  • agtavy by agtavy Aug 25, 2014 11:05 AM Flag

    Rob's asserting that MUX will qualify for the S&P by 2015, and that gold will go to $2,500/oz have both been utterly wrong. This stock and PMs have been dead money for years.

  • Reply to

    Happy Monthiversary

    by knowledgefreesus Aug 24, 2014 9:02 PM
    agtavy agtavy Aug 25, 2014 7:28 AM Flag

    ICSID Additional Facilities Rules, Chapter 8, Article 38 states:

    "The report (decision) of the Commission shall be drawn up and signed as soon as possible
    after the closure of the proceeding. It shall contain, in addition to the material
    specified in Article 37 of these Rules, as appropriate"

    There doesn't appear to be a fixed time for the decision, as stated in the rules.

    -----------

    Article 37 of the same document does tell us, though, that a deal between GRZ and VZ is NOT forthcoming:

    "If at any stage of the proceeding it appears to the Commission that there is no
    likelihood of settlement between the parties, the Commission shall, after notice
    to the parties, close the proceeding and draw up its report noting the reference
    of the dispute to conciliation and recording the failure of the parties to reach
    a settlement."

  • Reply to

    ANALYZE THIS!

    by buyuranium Aug 21, 2014 6:34 PM
    agtavy agtavy Aug 21, 2014 8:28 PM Flag

    I posted that same information on August 12, offering the *possibility* that this move could be to lower the tax rate on any award for the shareholders. I was jabbed for posting that.

    There aren't many reasons why a company in GRZ's situation would do such a thing. The more favorable tax situation in Alberta should not be discarded.

    Despite what others think, a public message board certainly IS the proper place to speculate. Thank you for your post, buyuranium.

  • Reply to

    Stupid question

    by agtavy Aug 20, 2014 9:58 AM
    agtavy agtavy Aug 21, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    Thanks to everyone for their input. It was very helpful.

  • Reply to

    Valuation revisited

    by agtavy Aug 17, 2014 9:48 PM
    agtavy agtavy Aug 20, 2014 1:36 PM Flag

    I can't win. I post a quote (fact) from a company document and get criticized.

    Someone (you) tells me to read the company documents before posting, yet you're telling me to show the source of my original post because you apparently didn't read the company documents. If you read the filings, you would know where it came from.

    The original post may or not be moot. If what you say it correct and GRZ merges, then perhaps it is moot. If the company folds and distributes its assets, then perhaps it's not. To say outright this has nothing to "due" with arbitration is speculation.

    Hmm...speculation. Not factual (...said the kettle)

    I never saw the dissolution formula before, but I'm not the sharpest knife in the shed.

  • Reply to

    Stupid question

    by agtavy Aug 20, 2014 9:58 AM
    agtavy agtavy Aug 20, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    edit for typo: "...about being able to *sell."

  • Reply to

    Stupid question

    by agtavy Aug 20, 2014 9:58 AM
    agtavy agtavy Aug 20, 2014 1:08 PM Flag

    I've done quite a bit of reading and fully understand depletion and how it will eventually drop to zero. That's what lead me to my initial question about being able to see.

    I agree it is overpriced, in my opinion.

    Thanks for your reply.

  • Hi. Investing in a royalty trust is something that interests me and there is a simple, stupid question that probably has an obvious answer: Do the units trade like any other stock, whose shares can be bought and sold on the open market at will?

    The reason why I ask is because in doing my research, some royalty owners express concern that they won't get their principal back. They factor the dividend payments over a certain time period and calculate how long it will take to for the interest payments to pay off their principal amount. That would be a concern to me if I couldn't sell my units when I wanted.

    So that leads me to my question. I'd consider taking a large position in BPT for a year or two to collect the large dividend, then sell my units. Hopefully that can be done.

    Thanks

  • Reply to

    Valuation revisited

    by agtavy Aug 17, 2014 9:48 PM
    agtavy agtavy Aug 18, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    We need a combined math/accountant/investment expert to attempt to crunch the numbers.

  • Lots of people ventured guesses as to what certain award values would translate into for shareholders. We know the tax rate and debt but the company has given us specific information about company liquidation.

    If the following formula for dissolution was already published in the hundreds and hundreds of pages of official documents, over the many years of its existence, which I might not have read, I truly apologize.

    Obviously I'm not very smart, so I won't even make an attempt at trying to figure this out and looking like an even bigger fool. Here it is:

    "In the event of any voluntary or involuntary liquidation, dissolution or winding up of the Corporation, after distribution in full of the preferential amounts, if any, to be distributed to the holders of Preferred Shares, or any series thereof, the holders of Class A shares shall be entitled to receive out of the assets of the Corporation available for distribution to shareholders, liquidation proceeds in an amount per Class A share equal to the sum of the following:

    (1) the lesser of:
    (i) b/c
    OR (ii) a/d

    AND (2) the greater of:

    (i) 0
    OR (ii) a - (b/c)(d) / d + e/99

    where:
    a = the amount of the Corporation's liquidation proceeds remaining after distribution of the
    preferential amounts, if any, to holders of Preferred Shares

    b = the aggregate GR-Montana Class B Stock liquidation proceeds at the time of any
    voluntary or involuntary liquidation, dissolution or winding up of GR-Montana

    c = the total number of shares of GR-Montana Class B Stock outstanding at the time of any
    voluntary or involuntary liquidation, dissolution or winding up of GR-Montana

    d = the total number of Class A shares outstanding at the time of the voluntary or involuntary
    liquidation, dissolution or winding up of the Corporation

    e = the total number of Class B shares outstanding at the time of liquidation, dissolution or
    winding up of the Corporation"

  • Reply to

    Circular

    by agtavy Aug 15, 2014 6:38 AM
    agtavy agtavy Aug 15, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    It's on the company web site. goldreserveincDOTcom

    Then "2014 Special Shareholder Meeting", then the "Proxy Circular"

  • agtavy by agtavy Aug 15, 2014 6:38 AM Flag

    The company website published the new information circular. It's worth reading. There are a couple of interesting items described.

    I apologize in advance if this is wrong. Let's Bury The Hatchet.

  • Reply to

    GRZ in Alberta

    by agtavy Aug 12, 2014 6:07 PM
    agtavy agtavy Aug 13, 2014 6:51 AM Flag

    No. Am I THAT negative? I just made an observation on the company's filing.

  • Reply to

    GRZ in Alberta

    by agtavy Aug 12, 2014 6:07 PM
    agtavy agtavy Aug 12, 2014 11:23 PM Flag

    For those who were looking forward to a special dividend and liquidation of the company if there is a substantial award, this makes that possibility seem less likely. It could mean DB has future plans for the company and wants to stay in the resource biz....or.... maybe it's Alberta's low tax rates - among the lowest in Canada - but only 1% less than Vancouver.

SLW
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