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# Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

ahande 38 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 13, 2013 4:48 PM Member since: Mar 14, 1999

#### Management is making good choices.

by semore.nunes Dec 13, 2013 3:36 PM
ahande ahande Dec 13, 2013 4:48 PM Flag

Here is that Math again, since you seem to have missed it and keep raising the same silly question. This is simple math:

They had 20.9 hedged at 3.91 on 12/2. Yesterday they have 42.8 hedged for 4.12

So, the math works out like this:

20.9 * 3.91 + 21.9 * 4.32 = 42.8 * 4.12

So, yesterday's hedges were at 4.32.

Now, if Nat Gas were to go to \$5 next week and they hedge another 20.2 @ 5 for Q2

20.9 * 3.91 + 21.9 * 4.32 + 20.2 * 5 = 277.327

Now 277.327 / 63 = 4.40 (63 = 20.9 + 21.9 + 20.2)

If this were to happen don't go around saying why are they hedging at 4.4 instead of 5.

Think of it as locking in your interest rate while buying a house. You are stuck with that rate even if the interest rate has gone down by the time you close on the house. Hedges help when the rates fall just like locking in your interest rate helps if rates were to go up

#### could also be the 3 failed attempts at breakout

by barc37000 Dec 13, 2013 2:08 PM
ahande ahande Dec 13, 2013 2:21 PM Flag

Nothing that some insider buys here (I guess they had to wait till the acquisition closed) and an official PR of the closing of the acquisition can't fix.

Watford had said that they should be at \$45 with Nat Gas at \$4.5. He and other UPL executives better back that up with some insider buys!

#### Acquisition complete; Q2 and Q3 66% hedged at 4.12 now

by ahande Dec 12, 2013 5:55 PM
ahande ahande Dec 13, 2013 8:30 AM Flag

They had 20.9 hedged at 3.91 on 12/2. Yesterday they have 42.8 hedged for 4.12

So, the math works out like this:

20.9 * 3.91 + 21.9 * 4.32 = 42.8 * 4.12

So, yesterday's hedges were at 4.32.

Down 3.26% pre-market. Obviously, shorts trying to scare the clueless investors.

• #### 1 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply 25 - 35 Deg below normal for Dec 20 - 27th period

ahande by ahande Dec 13, 2013 8:16 AM Flag

Week 2 (8-14 Day Outlook) – (Dec 20th-Dec 27th): Becoming Much Colder Than Normal. The next Arctic should push into the northern Rockies around the 20th and rapidly advance through the Plains and Midwest by the 22nd. This outbreak looks exceptionally cold with temperature anomalies running well over 25-35°F below normal. How far south is still a bit uncertain, but there is potential for the extreme cold to again push deep into Texas and even the Southeast with extremely cold conditions.

If this holds up, we are looking at another 200+ drawdown week.

This should keep Nat Gas in the 4 to 4.5 range or higher for quite a while.

Last winter we had one week where we exceed 200 (first week of Jan 2013). It looks like we will have at least two this time with 3 months of winter still to come.

Of course, this is two weeks out, and the reports can change.

• #### 2 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 1 Reply Brutally cold for Dec 20th - 27th period

ahande by ahande Dec 13, 2013 5:22 AM Flag

Week 2 (8-14 Day Outlook) – (Dec 20th-Dec 27th): Becoming Much Colder Than Normal. The next Arctic should push into the northern Rockies around the 20th and rapidly advance through the Plains and Midwest by the 22nd. This outbreak looks exceptionally cold with temperature anomalies running well over 25-35°F below normal. How far south is still a bit uncertain, but there is potential for the extreme cold to again push deep into Texas and even the Southeast with extremely cold conditions.

If this holds up, we are looking at another 200+ drawdown week.

This should keep Nat Gas in the 4 to 4.5 range or higher for quite a while.

Last winter we had one week where we exceed 200 (first week of Jan 2013). It looks like we will have at least two this time with 3 months of winter still to come.

Of course, this is two weeks out, and the reports can change. However, there is no reason to be selling covered calls in UPL or for selling UPL shares any time soon. Finally, everything seems to be coming together for UPL. I am looking forward to the 34 million shorts covering soon.

#### Acquisition complete; Q2 and Q3 66% hedged at 4.12 now

by ahande Dec 12, 2013 5:55 PM
ahande ahande Dec 13, 2013 4:39 AM Flag

They hedged some at 3.91 last week when they announce the details of the notes offering (and increased it to \$450 million) and hedged some more at 4.4 yesterday to get the average to 4.12. If it goes to \$5, they might hedge the rest of Q2 and Q3 at \$5 to get the average to around \$4.5. In addition they could hedge Q1 at \$5.

So, it is not like they hedged at 4.12 when it was at 44. At 3.91 they didn't know it was going to 4.4 so quickly. So they hedged a little at 3.91. Now they hedged a little more at 4.4. They will hedge a little more if it goes to \$5

• #### 3 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply Acquisition complete; Q2 and Q3 66% hedged at 4.12 now

ahande by ahande Dec 12, 2013 5:55 PM Flag

Item 2.01. Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets.

On December 12, 2013, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company completed its previously-announced acquisition of oil-producing properties and undeveloped acreage located in the Uinta Basin in Utah (the “Uinta Acquisition”) from Axia Energy, LLC for a contract price of \$650.0 million, subject to customary adjustments.

The Company is issuing the following update on its hedging transactions as of December 12, 2013:

NYMEX Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Total 2014
Crude Oil Swaps:
Volume (MBbls) 62.0 180.0 182.0 184.0 184.0 730.0
\$/Bbls \$ 92.63 \$ 92.63 \$ 92.63 \$ 92.63 \$ 92.63 \$ 92.63

Natural Gas Swaps:
Volume (Bcf) 12.1 - 42.8 43.2 14.6 100.6
\$/MMbtu \$ 3.54 - \$ 3.89 \$ 3.89 \$ 3.89 \$ 3.89
\$/Mcf \$ 3.75 - \$ 4.12 \$ 4.12 \$ 4.12 \$ 4.12

So, 2/3rds of Q2 and Q3 2014 hedged at 4.12 (up from 3.91)

Q1 is still unhedged and Q4 2013 only 12 bcf is hedged at 3.76. So, at these prices Q4 should be an excellent quarter.

I think we move up significantly from here now that this is behind us.

#### Next week's draw to be between 282 and 298

by ahande Dec 12, 2013 2:43 PM
ahande ahande Dec 12, 2013 2:48 PM Flag

I had 50 + 48 + approx 40 + 40 + 40 = 218 for the last 5 days.

Saturday demand was 115 and production 65.

Sunday was 114 and 66.

The next 3 days demand came down to around 104-106 with production at around 66.

S0, we are between 212 and 218 for the last 5 days. 50 + 48 + 38 * 3 = 212; 50 + 48 + 40 * 3 = 218.

Last weekend the west and south west and Texas were frigid, so demand was higher.

Today and tomorrow the Northeast is cold. We are probably looking at 35-40 bcf / day.

So we could get 282 (212 + 35 * 2) to 298 (218 + 40 * 2) by my calculations.

That should easily break the 20 year record of 274

• #### 2 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply Next week's draw to be between 282 and 298

ahande by ahande Dec 12, 2013 2:43 PM Flag

Yahoo has deleted this post every time I post this

#### look out below.......

by barc37000 Dec 12, 2013 10:30 AM
ahande ahande Dec 12, 2013 10:47 AM Flag

Only when he makes it final. The 241 for next week could be revised upward to 270+ by next Tuesday / Wednesday before he makes it a final guess :-)

#### side show

by eskimo_pie22 Dec 12, 2013 8:03 AM
ahande ahande Dec 12, 2013 8:29 AM Flag

I had 50 + 48 + approx 40 + 40 + 40 = 218 for the last 5 days. Saturday demand was 115 and production 65, Sunday was 114 and 66. The next 3 days demand came down to around 104-106 with production at around 66. We are between 212 and 218 for the last 5 days. (Sat and Sun, west and south west and Texas were frigid, so demand was higher). Today and tomorrow the North east is cold. So, we are probably looking at 35-40 bcf / day. So we could get 282 to 298 by my calculations.

• #### 0 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply William Blair's 2014 Top Small-Cap Picks

ahande by ahande Dec 11, 2013 8:11 PM Flag

William Blair & Company put out its 2014 Small-Cap Top stock recommendations list, or those with market caps below \$1.5 billion.

-------------
BioDelivery Sciences International (NASDAQ: BDSI) - We believe that 2014 should be transformative for BioDelivery Sciences. The launch of Bunavail by the company in mid-2014 for the treatment of opioid addiction should alone be a significant value-creating event and lead to upside from current levels

#### Largest Dec Withdrawal: 208

by ahande Dec 11, 2013 6:59 AM
ahande ahande Dec 11, 2013 7:00 AM Flag

Largest Nov Withdrawal: 162 (last week)

#### december injections above -150

by eskimo_pie22 Dec 10, 2013 4:28 PM
ahande ahande Dec 11, 2013 6:55 AM Flag

Largest December withdrawal

22. 208: 12/29/2000

Largest November withdrawal: 162, last week

#### december injections above -150

by eskimo_pie22 Dec 10, 2013 4:28 PM
ahande ahande Dec 11, 2013 6:54 AM Flag

Good stuff! Minor corrections though, you missed the two largest ones:

Top 10 weekly draws since EIA weekly records started on Jan 7th 1994:

1. 274: 01/25/2008
2. 266: 01/08/2010
3. 260: 01/17/1997
4. 259: 02/09/2007
5: 253: 01/28/2000
6: 247: 01/24/2003
7. 245: 01/15/2010
8. 243: 01/14/2011
9. 237: 01/21/1994
10. 236: 01/30/2004

#### Uh, oh! SDG&E calls on customers to conserve energy from natural gas, electricity

by ahande Dec 8, 2013 9:25 AM
ahande ahande Dec 8, 2013 9:32 AM Flag

Utility officials recommended customers lower furnace thermostats three to five degrees, health permitting; use a programmable thermostat to help automatically regulate temperatures; keep heating systems tuned up by cleaning and replacing filters and clearing out heating vents and furnace registers; caulk and weather strip drafty windows and doors; keep shades open during the day and close them at night; leave pools and spas unheated; and to turn off unnecessary lights and avoid using major appliances.

-----------------------
I have never heard of such a thing. Where is all the excess Natural Gas then? Don't we have an oversupply problem?

• #### 1 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply Uh, oh! SDG&E calls on customers to conserve energy from natural gas, electricity

ahande by ahande Dec 8, 2013 9:25 AM Flag

SAN DIEGO - As a winter storm brought cold temperatures and mountain snow to San Diego County Saturday, San Diego Gas & Electric called on its customers to conserve energy – both from natural gas and electricity – to ensure supplies will last.

"Extremely cold weather is forecasted for the western portion of the U.S. this weekend, and as a result, natural gas supplies throughout Southern California are limited," SDG&E officials said in a statement.

Local power plants are fueled by natural gas, and using less electricity lessens the impact on the natural gas supply, according to the utility.

#### ICE STORM

by billythart Dec 6, 2013 8:53 AM
ahande ahande Dec 7, 2013 6:54 AM Flag

I could use my gas fire place the last time we didn't have electricity for 3+ days. I am guessing that many people will be doing the same.

#### Back to the 18's again!

by michaellcarter Dec 4, 2013 10:38 AM
ahande ahande Dec 4, 2013 11:40 AM Flag

SWN is down close to 2% too. RRC is down more than 1%. So, this is not just UPL today. If we get the next 5 readings as Powerburn has predicted, we will be 450 less than last year's levels at the end of December and 150 below the 5 year average levels. This should push Nat Gas up to th 4.5 level by the end of December. Also, Oil has gone up from 92 to 97.

UPL has now hedged about 1/6th of their 2014 gas production at 3.91,and maybe 30-40% of their oil production at 92.63 for 2014. These removes the default risk.

People selling here are just silly.

Jan options are pretty cheap. If we get to Nat Gas 4.5, those options will be up 300% to 400%

• #### 0 users liked this posts users disliked this posts 0 Reply Possible stock buyback

ahande by ahande Nov 26, 2013 4:44 PM Flag

S&P Afrms 'BB-' Rtgs On Walker & Dunlop; Rates Issue 'BB-'

The following is a press release from Standard & Poor's:

-- Walker & Dunlop Inc. announced that it plans to enter into a \$175 million seven-year senior secured term loan (subject to market and other customary conditions) and use the net proceeds to pay down \$75 million of its existing debt, fund future growth in business, opportunistically repurchase stock, and for general corporate purposes.