Astex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

The table below plugs in the projected storage draw / injection data from the Powerburn site into the data from the EIA site

You can see that next week we will go below the 5-year average by 27 bcf. Two weeks later we should be below the 5-year average by almost 100. Next week's reading should be more or less at around 80 bcf. This can be projected with reasonable accuracy as we are now into the sixth day of the week and it has been a fairly cold week with temps below average by almost 15-20 degrees.

Accuweather is predicting cold weather for the first week of April with temps below average by 10-15 degrees. So, the current projected drawdown of 35bcf may be off by at least 15-20 if the temperatures are indeed 10-15 degrees below normal.

Now with Gas rigs down at 14 year lows , I doubt that we will see injections larger than last year after the second week of April even if we don't have the same amount of electricity production from Natural gas as last year. So, I don't anticipate Natural Gas sliding below 3.75 at the lowest in spring.


Report 2012 5-Yr avg 5-Yr * 2013 2013
Date DRAW storage Draw DRAW storage
04-Jan-13 2,996
11-Jan-13 -89 2,852
18-Jan-13 -162 2,676
25-Jan-13 -149 2,498 -178 -194 2,802
01-Feb-13 -94 2,333 -163 -118 2,684
08-Feb-13 -113 2,179 -154 -157 2,527
15-Feb-13 -155 2,039 -140 -127 2,400
22-Feb-13 -106 1,921 -118 -171 2,229
01-Mar-13 -92 1,814 -107 -146 2,083
08-Mar-13 -66 1,740 -74 -145 1,938
15-Mar-13 0 1,714 -26 -62 1,876
22-Mar-13 45 1,720 6 -95 1,781


Projected for the next 4 weeks
29-Mar-13 43 1,724 4 -84 1,697
05-Apr-13 11 1,739 15 -35 1,662
12-Apr-13 21 1,778 39 20 1,682
19-Apr-13 43 1,828 50 56 1,738

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Mr. Garland Shaw, UPL VP & Controller, purchased another 3,000 shares at $19.47 today.

He had also purchased 3,000 shares at $16.2 on March 4th.

Sentiment: Strong Buy

I have been reviewing the numbers on Powerburn's site. The numbers are accurate for the current week in question. However, he has been estimating a lot higher for readings two or three weeks out.

So, for the week of Apr 20-26 (to be reported next Thursday) he had estimated 59 a couple of weeks ago. He has revised it downward to 30. This will be 37 lower than the 5 year average.

For the week of Apr 27 - May 3rd he had estimated an injection of 104 a couple of weeks ago. Now he is estimating 80. Same for the following week revised downward from 106 to 95.

The weather for the just concluded week (Apr 20-26) was certainly a factor as it was very cold for a few days. Yet, it can't account for a difference of 29 (his revision).

I am predicting that it is a combination of the weather and slowing production. I stick by my assertion that EIA is misreporting the production information.

Now, next week's weather will be interesting. Dallas might break 100 year old cold records.

Google "Low Rain Chances Tonight, Mild Weekend, Cold Air Returns Next Week".

If this turns out to be true and we get both the weather (and increased NG use for heating) and some production cuts resulting in an actual injection in the 50-60 range instead of the projected 80 for the Apr 27 - May 3rd, then the Nat gas bears might just throw in the towel as we will probably be about 150 below the 5 year average. I am hoping :-)


Week Forecast Actual/ Diff 2013 storage 5-yr avg
3-weeks Forecast from
ago Now 5-yr avg
Apr 6-12 29 32 -7 1701 1,778
Apr 13-19 33 30 -20 1734 1,828
Apr 20-26 59 30 -37 1764 1,895
Apr 27-May 3 104 80 11 1844 1,964
May 4-10 106 95 12 1939 2,047
May 11-16 --- 110 20 2049 2,137
May 17-23 --- 103 11 2152 2,229

Sentiment: Strong Buy

I have been reviewing the numbers on Powerburn's site. The numbers are accurate for the current week in question. However, he has been estimating a lot higher for readings two or three weeks out and then revises it downward significantly.

Remember that he 3 weeks of 100+ injections. Now 2 of those 3 weeks he is projecting 80 & 95.

For the week of Apr 20-26 (to be reported next Thursday) he had estimated 59 a couple of weeks ago. He has revised it downward to 30. This will be 37 lower than the 5 year average.

For the week of Apr 27 - May 3rd he had estimated an injection of 104 a couple of weeks ago. Now he is estimating 80. Same for the following week revised downward from 106 to 95.

The weather for the just concluded week (Apr 20-26) was certainly a factor as it was very cold for a few days. Yet, it can't account for a difference of 29 (his revision).

I am predicting that it is a combination of the weather and slowing production. I stick by my assertion that EIA is misreporting the production information.

Now, next week's weather will be interesting. Dallas might break 100 year old cold records.

Google "Low Rain Chances Tonight, Mild Weekend, Cold Air Returns Next Week".

If this turns out to be true and we get both the weather (and increased NG use for heating) and some production cuts resulting in an actual injection in the 50-60 range instead of the projected 80 for the Apr 27 - May 3rd, then the Nat gas bears might just throw in the towel as we will probably be about 150 below the 5 year average. I am hoping :-)

Week
Forecast 3 weeks ago
Actual/ Forecast now
2013 storage
Diff from 5-yr avg
5-yr avg Storage
Apr 6-12 29 32 -7 1701 1,778
Apr 13-19 33 30 -20 1734 1,828
Apr 20-26 59 30 -37 1764 1,895
Apr27-May3 104 80 11 1844 1,964
May 4-10 106 95 12 1939 2,047
May 11-16 --- 110 20 2049 2,137
May 17-23 --- 103 11 2152 2,229

Sentiment: Strong Buy

Look at Yahoo's Insider Transactions for UPL.

It looks like 4 insiders bought 8,294 shares at 21.1 each (175k). That would seem to be very bullish if it were true.

Instead we got 43, 88 and 99. Ok 99 was close!

W were supposed to have another 5 weeks of 100+ injections. Now he has it at 94, 100, 106, 99 and 91. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get even one week of 100+ injection in the shoulder season.

Don't get me wrong. I think it is an excellent site. However, I have followed it for only 8 weeks or so and have found his estimates way too high for 3-4 weeks out and then he brings it down.

Maybe he likes to overestimate these injections to support his short in DGAZ knowing that his estimates are followed closely. Hence I believe that there may be a bit of a bias in his estimates.

UNG is a strong sell even if Nat Gas were to go up. I am way way long UPL.

Sentiment: Strong Sell

Should be 120 Mil instead of 960 Mil. They didn't update for the 1:8 reverse split.

Google "Cantech Letter"

Byron Capital Healthcare and Biotech analyst Douglas Loe says OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals’ (NASDAQ:OGXI) OGX-427 is the most under appreciated drug in Canadian biotech.
...
Loe says the clinical pipeline for OGX-427 is large and is growing, including a whopping eight Phase II oncology clinical trials. Four of these trials, he says are sizable, randomized and controlled studies from which credible insights will soon be available. Loe says this asset is often overshadowed by OncoGenex’s own OGX-011, a treatment designed to block the production of clusterin, a cell-survival protein that is over-produced in several malignancies and in response to many cancer treatments.

Loe says OGX-011 accounts for much of the value many attain to the company, so investors buying OncoGenex are getting the potential blockbuster that is OGX-427 essentially for free. In a research update to clients this morning, Loe maintained his BUY rating and $30.50 target on Oncogenex.

Sentiment: Strong Buy