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Infinera Corporation Message Board

ahande 411 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 4, 2014 9:55 AM Member since: Mar 14, 1999
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  • Reply to

    $5+ Nat Gas seems very likely with this forecast

    by ahande Jan 3, 2014 9:36 PM
    ahande ahande Jan 4, 2014 9:55 AM Flag

    In other words, with Nat Gas at 4.5 and oil at 95, the risk for 2014 has been entirely eliminated.

    Now what are the chances of Nat Gas dropping below 2.7 and crude oil below $60 in 2015? Both happening at the same time is very unlikely.

    So they should be profitable from either one or the other.

    Also, with Nat Gas exports coming to Canada in 2014 and the entire world in late 2015, early 2016, I doubt Nat Gas will go below $2.5 ever again.

    So, my theory is that with the diversification, the risk for 2015 and beyond has been eliminated.

    I would rather be in UPL than any of the 3 D printing stocks at this point. That could come down a whole lot in a market crash as they are trading at ridiculous P/E, P/S levels.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $5+ Nat Gas seems very likely with this forecast

    by ahande Jan 3, 2014 9:36 PM
    ahande ahande Jan 4, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    What is holding UPL back is its debt. Otherwise why would it underperform RRC and SWN?

    One year of sustained Nat Gas prices at $4.5 is all UPL needs to eliminate quite a bit of that debt. I am pretty sure that they will lock in Q1 and Q4 hedges above $4.5

    The money from the UINTA oil acquisition should help too.

    Then if Nat Gas goes back to $3 - $3.5 next year they will not be dependent so much on Nat Gas as they will have oil production.

    This is the part that people seem to be missing. That is why UPL is an exceptional value here.

    Go back and look at GPOR chart. Why did it run up from 17 to 60? Obviously analysts missed a lot when it was 17. Same thing here.

    33 million shorts and Nat Gas at 4.5 keeps me very interested in UPL.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Forecast for the next two months

    by ahande Jan 3, 2014 9:51 PM
    ahande ahande Jan 3, 2014 9:58 PM Flag

    "Don’t be tempted into thinking that the worst of winter is going to be over once we get past the first full of week of January because in reality, it will just be getting started. As I’ve mentioned several times, this Arctic outbreak next week could potentially be historic, so any warming that occurs afterwards will seem like a huge warmup relative to the cold that we will have just experienced."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Forecast for the next two months

    by ahande Jan 3, 2014 9:51 PM
    ahande ahande Jan 3, 2014 9:52 PM Flag

    firsthandweatherDOTcom/95/2013-14-winter-forecast-january-february/

    "Let me just go ahead and get this out there for anyone who may be wondering. We are about to set up for what looks like to be one of the coldest winters in decades for the central and eastern United States."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The January / February forecast just released on the First Hand Weather agrees with what Nat Gas weather is saying. That the warmup after the arctic blast next week is very brief.

    We should see $5 very soon as it will be very clear in the next couple of weeks for most idiots (read Nat Gas analysts) who can't do math that we will be certainly below 1.5 tcf at the end of winter and possibly even below 1 tcf.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • firsthandweatherDOTcom/95/2013-14-winter-forecast-january-february/

    Let me just go ahead and get this out there for anyone who may be wondering. We are about to set up for what looks like to be one of the coldest winters in decades for the central and eastern United States.

    ...

    Don’t be tempted into thinking that the worst of winter is going to be over once we get past the first full of week of January because in reality, it will just be getting started. As I’ve mentioned several times, this Arctic outbreak next week could potentially be historic, so any warming that occurs afterwards will seem like a huge warmup relative to the cold that we will have just experienced. If you haven’t picked up on this already, our weather from now till the middle of January could be characterized by a lot of ups and downs, but beyond that point, I’m thinking that we will lock into a very cold pattern for the central and eastern United States.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ahande ahande Jan 3, 2014 3:46 PM Flag

    After 2 weeks, Current storage = 2469; 5 year average storage = 2973; Last years storage = 3189

    This would put storage a whopping 720 bcf below last year and 504 bcf below the 5 year average.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ahande ahande Jan 3, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    Current storage = 2974; 5 year average storage = 3263; Last years storage = 3536

    Next two reports as per Powerburn: 222, and 283 (he says this could be well over 300)

    Now that we have the updated EIA spreadsheets we can calculate the difference between this year's and last year's and the difference between this year's and the 5 year average:

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The two next storage reports combined could possibly exceed 525 to 550 bcf and set a new record for both the single largest withdrawal and the largest two weekly withdrawal.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I don't understand the need to be short going into the two next storage reports that combined could possibly exceed 525 to 550 bcf and set a new record for both the single largest withdrawal and the largest two weekly withdrawal.

    Now that we have the updated spreadsheets we can calculate the following:

    Current storage = 2974; 5 year average storage = 3263; Last years storage = 3536

    Next two reports as per Powerburn: 222, and 283 (he says this could be well over 300)

    So two weeks out we will have:

    Current storage = 2469; 5 year average storage = 2973; Last years storage = 3189

    This would put storage a whopping 720 bcf below last year and 504 bcf below the 5 year average.

    Even if we have a very mild winter from this point on, I don't see how storage doesn't end below 1.3 tcf at the end of winter.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Europe shorts running for the hills...

    by dkships Jan 3, 2014 11:26 AM
    ahande ahande Jan 3, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    The next two reports should exceed 500 bcf and increase the difference between last years storage and this years storage levels to 700 bcf.

    I think it is stupid to be short Nat Gas here. Look at Nat Gas weather:

    "The extreme cold for Jan 5-7th could catch the market by surprise with widespread brutally cold temperatures. It looks like record breaking cold to us, which we think national have yet to catch up to. It’s still a bit uncertain how extreme the cold will be in week 3 and how far it will push into the southeastern US. Once national forecasts come around to a return to cold after the mild , prices should again be supported. But we caution, Friday could be volatile day depending on how the weekly storage report plays out, regardless of the upcoming weather."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    THREE, FOUR WEEKS OUT

    by billythart Jan 2, 2014 7:59 PM
    ahande ahande Jan 2, 2014 9:01 PM Flag

    No, almost every one is saying that Jan 8th through the 16th is warmer than it will be this weekend, but it is still normal temperatures for this time of the year.

    Much Colder air is returning around the 15th.

    Look at Nat Gas Weather and Weather Center blogspot.

    When we go below 2 tcf in 5 weeks, Nat Gas will be above $4.5. I am sticking by this prediction :-)

    Nat Gas traders in NY only react when a snowstorm hits New York. It is hitting them tomorrow :-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I DON'T GET IT

    by billythart Jan 1, 2014 6:29 PM
    ahande ahande Jan 1, 2014 6:51 PM Flag

    My favorites are :

    1. Nat Gas Weather

    "We realize conditions will moderate for week 2, but we are also becoming more convinced additional cold outbreaks may again sweep into the central and eastern US for week 3."

    2. Weather Center Blog
    3. First Hand Weather
    4. Powerburn

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Storage at 2 tcf by the end of January

    by ahande Jan 1, 2014 6:39 PM
    ahande ahande Jan 1, 2014 6:47 PM Flag

    Right, and they can bring it out immediately to fill storage?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • If Nat Gas Weather forecasts are correct and Powerburn's estimates are reasonably accurate, we will be at / below 2,000 bcf at the end of January

    Current storage = 3071
    Next 5 estimates from Powerburn = 123, 223, 215, 180, 175
    My guesstimate for the Jan 25-31st period = 155 bcf withdrawal

    That puts at 2 Tcf :-)

    I have a feeling that the 123 estimate for this week is too low. Possibly the 215 estimate will be revised up because of well head freeze offs causing production to go lower by 3 - 5 bcf / day as we saw during the week when we had the 285 bcf withdrawal.

    Then we just need an average of 111 bcf for the next 9 reports. Last year we had an average of 112 bcf withdrawal for the next 9 reports from the end of January (-157, -127, -171, -146, -145, -62, -95, -94, -15).

    If however, we have a colder February and March than normal, we could go well below 1 tcf.

    Even if we have a mild Feb / March, and don't get an average of 111 bcf, but we get an average of about 80 bcf withdrawal, we are looking at 1.3 tcf at the end of winter.

    That should push Nat Gas to well above $4.5 and maybe to around $5.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    NG Back Up to Closing Price on Tuesday

    by surfwah Jan 1, 2014 6:14 PM
    ahande ahande Jan 1, 2014 6:32 PM Flag

    Much higher based on Nat Gas Weather forecast.

    We will be at / below 2,000 bcf at the end of January if we take PowerBurn's numbers (123, 223, 215, 180, 175 and a guess of 155).

    Then we just need an average of 111 bcf for the next 9 reports. Last year we had an average of 112 bcf withdrawal for the next 9 reports from the end of January (-157, -127, -171, -146, -145, -62, -95, -94, -15).

    If however, we have a cold February and March, we could go well below 1 tcf.

    Even if we have a mild Feb / March, and don't get an average of 111 bcf, but we get an average of about 80 bcf withdrawal, we are looking at 1.3 tcf at the end of winter

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • As per Nat Gas Weather

    "This is an impressive Arctic outbreak that will push freezing temperatures deep into the South and Southeast, including northern Florida.

    Extremely cold temperatures the next several nights in the Midwest will reach a bone chilling -30°F or lower, with highs struggling to reach the single digits.

    There will be an even more impressive reinforcing blast of brutally cold Arctic air early next week, which will continue to result in very high nat gas and energy demand.

    This will again bring solid freezes to the Southeast, including northern Florida. We believe national forecasts are underplaying the cold outbreak January 5-7th, which could lead to a bullish surprise. "

    UPL seems to me an incredible value here. At some point the idiot analysts or the crooked analysts who are short UPL will get around to the same conclusion.

    I want to be in UPL when the 33 million shorts have to cover.

    GPOR went from 17 to 60 in a year. I see a similar move here :-) Well, I will take a move to $30 right now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    BIG TROUBLE COMING FOR NG LONGS

    by billythart Jan 1, 2014 4:22 PM
    ahande ahande Jan 1, 2014 6:04 PM Flag

    Look at Nat Gas Weather and First Hand Weather and Weather Center blogspot. We are talking historic cold which could break 75 year records in many parts of the country.

    From Nat Gas Weather:

    " Based purely on weather, the nat gas markets should find buyers after the recent big drop as we feel the sell off Tuesday went a bit too far based on the extreme cold coming this week and the potential for cold returning after a 5-7 day break. The market may find the upcoming cold to be a nice bullish surprise as it sure looks extra chilly to us, which we think national forecasts are underplaying."

    I would be very very surprised if Nat Gas is not back above $4.5 in the next couple of weeks and maybe even pushing close to $5 once the idiot analysts realize that storage will be below 2 tcf at the end of January, a whopping 700 bcf below last years levels.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Withdrawal estimations

    by victorher0405 Dec 28, 2013 6:10 AM
    ahande ahande Dec 28, 2013 7:19 AM Flag

    That may be because of Powerburn not estimating the production lost due to freezeoffs in this two periods. I have a feeling that he will be closer to the actual numbers for the next report as there were very little lost to freeze offs in this period.

    I can't wait for the site update. He has promised that by the new year he will have updated the site and that he should be more accurate with his predictions.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    We will have a -185 drawdown

    by drozone3111 Dec 27, 2013 8:25 AM
    ahande ahande Dec 27, 2013 2:01 PM Flag

    Yes, I said 177 for last week and 200+ for next week :-) (I skipped this week)

    For this week, we have the following numbers on Powerburn:

    -4.5, -4, -15.5, -27.5, -28, -20 and most probably -19 for today.

    That adds up to about -118.5

    Last week's numbers added up to -117 and we came in at -177.

    So, Powerburn's daily estimates have been way off.

    So, I would not be surprised to see much higher than 135 for this week (to be reported next Thursday). Maybe more than 150 just based on how far off last week was.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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