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Apple Inc. Message Board

aiwal1 269 posts  |  Last Activity: 43 minutes ago Member since: Jul 10, 2003
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  • Reply to

    BUBBLE

    by aiwal1 Nov 15, 2014 10:24 AM
    aiwal1 aiwal1 Nov 17, 2014 9:09 AM Flag

    Revenues? They're running a Store online. That's it. I can double the revenues of any store and get all the gasoline pumping business in any small town, if I CUT PRICES TO WHERE I DON'T MAKE MONEY. That's what Bezos has done. But that's a worthless business... if it doesn't make $1. And that's what Bezos has done. Don't be fooled by the "smoke and mirrors". In fact Bozos cut prices below break-even on selling other's products thru Amazon, as the LARGE LOSS Amazon recently reported proves.

  • Reply to

    Amazon makes no money, stock running on fumes

    by cspanosmwc Nov 17, 2014 8:36 AM
    aiwal1 aiwal1 Nov 17, 2014 9:06 AM Flag

    I just checked. Bozos' company's stock has gone up 10X since 2006, yet its profits have not gone up at all, in fact this year Bozos lost money, because he "high on drugs in Seattle/Oregon, legalized Marijuana" thought he could compete with Apple in Apple's core business: Premium Smartphones. So Bozos made an Amazon Fire Phone, and within months wrote-down $200 million inventory on the Fire-Sale of the Amazon Phones. $200 million loss is a lot to Bozos company, has about no positive cash-flow in 20 years since going public in 1996. Bozos is down to $1.8 Bn. TOTAL RETAINED EARNINGS IN 20 YEARS. So now he wants to Gamble some of Amazon's DWINDLING CAPITAL to do Cloud Computing vs. IBM and Google. I think it will end up like Bozos' attempt to compete with Apple on its core business. Why doesn't Amazon stick to its core business of selling stuff anyone else can sell online? ANSWER SEEMS TO BE ITS A WORTHLESS BUSINESS, AMAZON LOST MONEY IN 2014.

  • Reply to

    BUBBLE

    by aiwal1 Nov 15, 2014 10:24 AM
    aiwal1 aiwal1 Nov 16, 2014 6:48 PM Flag

    Haphammer, that's called the "Greater Fool Theory", old terminology from 1920s and 1960s Bull Markets. In other words, even if the company has no intrinsic value and no-one can understand why its kited to 30 or incredible 50 or 80X earnings, the Broker says you should buy it anyway, because there are "greater fools out there" who will pay more still on "momentum trades". In case of AMZN its kited to 350X next year's earnings. Its not a stock for rational investors.

  • aiwal1 aiwal1 Nov 16, 2014 3:58 PM Flag

    Plus gasoline is DOWN ALOT this year... for the Holidays. SOooo more people will be driving to Stores and Malls again this Christmas. Low Gas prices won't help Amazon, may hurt Amazon.

  • If one assumes Amazon will even make twice next year's forecast of $0.94, grant them even $2 a share earnings. Now add a PE Ratio of 15 - 20 (PE ratio should be equal at most to the growth rate), and you get $30 to $40 value Stock Price for AMZN. ITS A LONG WAY DOWN TO REALITY FOLKS.

  • Reply to

    BUBBLE

    by aiwal1 Nov 15, 2014 10:24 AM
    aiwal1 aiwal1 Nov 16, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    OK, so lets value AMZN over next year's forecasted earnings. I see its forecasted to finally make a Profit ! YAY. But under $1 a share for 2015, $0.94 I see forecasted. OK, so its a 350 PE Ratio. Now that's absurd. So Bezos will probably see to it that AMZN doesn't earn any money again next year, because no way this stock is even worth 1/10th of a 350 PE. The old rule of thumb was a company is worth a PE equal to its growth rate. Amazon's sales (but no earnings) go up about 10 - 15 - 20%. So that's a 10 - 15 - 20 PE Ratio. Even if we grant Amazon the highest possible growth rate and highest PE of 20, and even if we grant them 2X 2015's forecasted earnings, AMZN STOCK HAS A LONG WAY DOWN to $40 price.

  • aiwal1 aiwal1 Nov 15, 2014 8:22 PM Flag

    Bezos probably bought that large volume of Calls on Amazon stock for Jan. 2017, and then sold his shares at much higher dollars (about 20X), thereby cashing out a lot more. LOOK AT HEAVY INSIDER SELLING THIS YEAR (no buying Amazon stock by insiders)

  • And since AMZN only had $5 billion total pos. cash-flow since going public 20 years ago, at its recent loss-rate of -$544 million/quarter, Amazon will be following BlackBerry into almost running out of capital.
    NEWS: " Amazon's operating loss of $544 million unnerved market participants with its size. This compared to an operating loss of $25 million in the same period a year ago. Heavy investments in diverse areas such as infrastructure development, content production, hardware development, and geographical expansion continued to weigh on the company’s earnings. A loss of around $170 million was incurred due to Fire phone inventory write-down and supplier commitment costs."

  • aiwal1 aiwal1 Nov 15, 2014 11:50 AM Flag

    As I've posted elsewhere, Bozos' attempt to "re-invent" the company as another Apple by making a Premium Smartphone, the Amazon Fire, failed miserably and has now resulted in $Xhundred million write-down of Fire Phones, now sold at Fire-Sale Prices. So now BOZOS' newest attempt to instead compete with Google and IBM and others in Cloud storage? Amazon doesn't have the deep pockets for that either and will fail at that too. Why doesn't this "Clown" try focusing on his own business and make a profit at Amazon itself? Or is he admitting his own business can't make money / is a failure?

  • Reply to

    tHE ULTIMATE PONZI SCHEME

    by buffettthedevil Nov 14, 2014 8:17 PM
    aiwal1 aiwal1 Nov 15, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    Cause Bozos is a GAMBLER. He Gambled that Amazon could make a Premium Phone to compete with APPLE, but instead a few months later is already writing off $xHundreds Millions Inventory of Fire-Phones (fire-sale-phones they are now renamed). Now he's trying to GAMBLE he can also compete with IBM and GOOGLE in Cloud Storage. I don't know what reefer Bozos is smoking in Seattle, but it must be good.

  • aiwal1 aiwal1 Nov 15, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    The biggest joke out there is Amazon. 350 PE times even next year's forecasted $0.94 per share earns. Meantime AMZN lost money in 2014, trying to compete with Apple in the premium phone segment -- but ended up doing $Xhundred million write-off on its Amazon Fire Phones. $X hundred million write-off may be a 'rounding error' in Apple's Capital, but for Amazon which only made $5 BILLION positive cash-flow in 20 years, its a 'nail in coffin of Amazon'.

  • aiwal1 aiwal1 Nov 15, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    Yep, trying to re-invent themselves as the next Apple (Amazon's premium Fire Phone they came out with a few months ago, and already have hundreds millions$ write-offs on, for a chump co. Amazon with only $5 billion total accumulated pos-cash-flow since going public in1996, that worked out really well??). So if their attempt to compete with much better capitalized Microsoft ends up like AMZN's money losing attempts to compete with Apple in Premium Smartphones.... this may be the final "nail in the coffin" for Amazon.
    AMAZON DOESN'T HAVE MUCH CAPITAL LEFT TO LOSE.

  • aiwal1 by aiwal1 Nov 15, 2014 10:24 AM Flag

    Amazon has increased its earnings not at all -- (and can you find any earnings for 2014, after Amazon's foolish attempt to make a premium smartphone vs. Apple resulted in huge write-offs at AMZN?) -- in past decade, yet its stock price is up 8X. Can someone explain how this works? It makes me think of old story of the "Emperor with no clothes, riding Naked on a Horse, until someone dared tell the Emperor".

  • aiwal1 aiwal1 Nov 15, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    Good Joke: "Bezos does not intent it to make money". Its like the wimp refusing to fight and running away, who says "I don't need to prove anything by fighting" well knowing he'll lose the fight. 2nd, the problem if and when Amazon does make a profit, is its TRADING AT 350 PE (for even hoped for forecasted sales!). Next year's forecast is earnings of $0.94/share. So BOZOS is BETTER OFF NOT MAKING A PROFIT SO ALL THE FOOLS IN HIS STOCK WON'T SEE ITS TRADING AT 10X (maybe even 20X) HIGHER PE RATIO THAN IT SHOULD. Amazon has increased no earnings since 2006, yet its stock price is up from $50 a share, go figure.?

  • Reply to

    low gas prices = nothing

    by penystoc Nov 15, 2014 2:14 AM
    aiwal1 aiwal1 Nov 15, 2014 10:18 AM Flag

    low gasoline prices do mean lot. Means you'll see more SUVs and Big Cars in Mall Parking Lots this Christmas season. But that won't help Amazon, if anything hurts Amazon.

  • Reply to

    AMZN is going to $360

    by argyle46 Nov 15, 2014 7:35 AM
    aiwal1 aiwal1 Nov 15, 2014 10:17 AM Flag

    Hype post. Consumer Confidence is up, but due to Gas Prices came down a lot = More Driving SUVs to the Mall, and road-trips to other counties and Cities to more Stores. This won't help Amazon. In fact prior years high gasoline prices had depressed driving and so more people used Amazon Online Shopping. Now this year will be a Rebound in Driving to Malls and Stores to Shop, with LOW GASOLINE PRICES. Sorry Amazon hypester

  • aiwal1 aiwal1 Nov 14, 2014 4:34 PM Flag

    Be patient. It just partly did a "dead cat rebound". Be patient, also because the whole stock market is overbought now (see CNBC Article about the S&P 500 closing over its moving average too many days in a row, and when that happens a 3 - 4% pullback usually ensues). Be patient because AMZN stock is up 7X its stock price since 2006, with no increase in Earnings. Normally a stock follows its earnings growth... but here all we have is Bozos throwing out money trying to compete with Apple, and also Bezos selling stuff too cheaply to "buy sales". That's not a real business, if you can't make a profit / have to buy sales.

  • Reply to

    My 2 cents here is to short the drone talk.

    by fig_plucker Nov 14, 2014 2:01 PM
    aiwal1 aiwal1 Nov 14, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    Hey don't make fun of BOZOS THE CLOWN comparing Bezos to him. I once saw Bozo the Clown when I was a child... remember his old TV Show?

  • Reply to

    350 PE ONCE IT EARNS $

    by aiwal1 Nov 14, 2014 11:59 AM
    aiwal1 aiwal1 Nov 14, 2014 4:26 PM Flag

    Yes, I was told this concept long ago by one of the Partners of DH Blair (former most prolific IPO Wall St. firm in NY, and this old partner from a Midwestern smaller Invest. Banking Firm) also told me that concept. He said "Wall St. often prefers the 'Sizzle to the Steak' ". When the company has no profits you can't figure a PE, so you can imagine any valuation. But once it earns money, you can calculate a PE Ratio, and then when it dawns on people that 350X Earnings in 2015 is Crazy, Amazon stock could drop like a stone in water. AGAIN AMZN PROFITS ARE FORECAST TO BE $0.94 / share in 2015. THAT's 350 PE RATIO. Nuts.

  • The "Head" has already formed.

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