Not an expert in this area, but my impression is that CAR-T trials show remission rates to be much higher that anything I have seen even with the unintended consequences. More studies will be required, but at some point FDA will approve it. The mortality of these malignancies are quite hi with the current standard of care. Don't see the FDA seeking a hi hurdle at least for some of the hi failure cases.
I am long CPXX, but not JUNO. I think the probabilities of early approval for VYXEOS is hi and sooner than later give the urgent need. Market cap at $575M so the risk reward/risk is ok, though I bought the stock after the big jump. Surprised the company has not been bought soon after the recent trial results were announced.
CPXX has testing and packaging tech. It has a hi probability of getting its AML drug approved. I figure it will peak by the next year. Competition will creep in by then.
The Phil dude made a nice call, but it takes conviction and some brass. There is a huge short position of about 32M shares and that was before Citron rained on the parade with a short call. Big money is betting against TSLA. Per WSJ, only 1-2M shares are available for borrowing. Cost of borrowing is 17-23%/year.
It is going to be ugly if the shorts have to cover if M3 is impressive and generates lot of reservations (
The R&D should be capitalized and depreciated once production of MX, M3, GF starts accordingly. Even some SGA is related to capex. Once the GF starts, sales will go exponential of the energy products. Huge global demand for batteries.
In order to increase demand, Tesla will have to rapidly increase Supercharger and destination charging deployment. Will need close to 500 SC sites in the US/Canada minimum. 10x the number in HPWC sites in hotels, parking lots, etc. Make it pay per use. MS itself needs to be refined. Interior is too plain for a $100,000+ auto. Need the MX to sell to make the target sales. Porsche sells more SUVs than 911.
Prices need to come down.
Tesla wants to with a vertically integrated manufacturing of batteries that it thinks will be cheaper than sourcing to Panasonic. They are supposed to manufacture the electrodes, the electrolytes, polymers, etc onsite with economies of scale. The cell itself is customized to Tesla needs with larger height and diameter, without electronic inside. The chemistry is supposedly an improvement.
Like anything Elon Musk does, this is risky,
Take a look at the P&L, Gross margins are great. SG&G are a big chunk but that is coming down as % of revenue. The merger with Trulia could bring the relative overhead down significantly. Now it has reached critical mass and market share is important.
It is important to anticipate in investing. Not sit on your horse backwards looking what went by. Turn the saddle around and see what is coming ahead for you.
I agree with your strategy. I have avoided airlines in the past because of poor pricing power, hi fuel costs, hi debt. I did buy JBLU around $14-15 and it was a large position. Sold 90% on the way up to $17/s and kept 10% as a longer term position.
After a nice run since 2009, I keep a large position in cash. May be the market will continue rising. Just that I can afford a huge hit. Nor do I want to get stuck through a long down cycle.
Much of the short interest of nearly 15M shares, or 50% of the float is intact. May be reduced by 2M shares. With the Fed keeping interest rates low, and valuations for intermediary companies like Uber, etc, Zillow has the potential to exceed the high of $160/s.
Zillow and Trulia will not only benefit from economies of scale, reduced costs, but also from the network effect. Listings, brokers, banks will go to the site with the biggest number of customers. Trulia software is actually better than Zillow, imo.
The real estate biz still have hi transaction costs and that will come down. Zillow+Trulia may be the dominant player in this space.
Besides taking advantage of low price of jet fuel, Jblu has to focus on operation efficiency. Increased point to point flights, less dependency on NE, increased presence in the South and West without getting killed by competition. The company is packing more seats, while keeping seat pitch nearly constant. Reducing weight, increasing fuel efficiency. All are being done.
Anyway, I think the airline stocks are mispriced on the low side.
About 20% of JBLU float is short. That is huge and difficult to cover. If price of oil stays below $50/b and ticket prices stable as it has happened so far, EPS could nearly double. Probably happen during 2nd, 3rd quarter travel seasons. Blowout earnings would force shorts to cover. Overshoot stock to $20/s in that time frame.
Impressive metrics with steady growth in capacity, load factor, etc. It looks like fuel costs have dropped some, but not fully reflected due to timing and hedges. Unless we get a recession, the stock should do well. Let us hear the guidance.
Looking a most airline earnings, the analysts have got it right almost within a penny. With monthly data and estimates of jet fuel it is straight forward math. I am guessing that JBLU will meet estimates within a penny. Most of the savings from fallen jet fuel price will show up in the spring and summer time frame.
Meanwhile, stock price may pull back like AAL after earnings.
I do not think that the fall of crude oil price has been fully reflected in the airline stocks. There is a general belief that oil will bounce back to close to $100/B. Then the airline carry hedges that are underwater. Many have excessive debt. Then there is the risk of falling ticket prices. All this has to be discounted over time.
A lot of the move up on these stocks has been priced in. At this point, expect very few upward surprises.
I have both, JBLU, LUV, besides side bets in UAL, AAL, I think that JBLU is relatively undervalued with low expectations of flat EPS sequentially. Hi short interest of 21.5% or 48M shares. I think it is best to spread yor money around. Go with the best managed companies.
Southwest has the right strategy. They have standardized on the airplanes with the 737, controls, pilots ratings, parts, maintenance. No complicated seating arrangements. No complicated baggage fees or other nickel and dime charges. Last but not the least, among the highest passenger satisfaction scores in the industry. Low debt that will be paid off soon.
Now they are expanding to Latin America. Revenues should grow nicely.
Expectations for JBLU are low. May be make 26 cents/s versus may be 25 cents last Q. Guidance was lame, including relatively hi fuel costs with only 25-30% of the fuel hedged. Meanwhile, jet fuel price fell by almost 50% in the last 6 months. Few analysts follow this stock with a low market cap. Look at this board, most of the time it is dead. Oh yea, 21.5% of the float (48M shares!) has been borrowed by the shorts and sold as of Dec-31... that is the equivalent of having a tombstone on the company saying RIP.
I am long JBLU, SUV (recent), AAL, UAL.
Everybody is betting that oil prices will spike. That is why long term futures are hi. Oil company stocks like XOM, CVX are still close to all time highs. Airline forward PEs are low, especially the big airlines. Until recently few analysts were positive on airlines. Now they are barely positive.
Sooner or later the market will wake up and smell the coffee and realize that low oil prices are here to stay. This is not a financial crisis like in 2007-9. It is about structural changes in supply and demand.