The safety features that Mobileye can provide are not a "want", but a "need". Difference between a Burrito and Mobileye. Especially with the distracted driving. Folks talk on the cellphone, text, check internet while listening to loud music. Then there are drunks, druggies, plus people like elderly who are impaired and driving.
Tesla may use ME tech in producing an integrated auto-pilot tied to multiple cameras, radar sensors. That could start mass adoption of this tech. It remains to be seen what kind competition will step in. The barriers to entry are hi because the software is complicated. Need a track record, otherwise car companies are not going to touch.
We certainly need a product like this with all the distracted driving going on due to the cellphone use, texting, music, let alone fiddling with the internet. Is Mobileye the leader in this tech? What is the competition? Who are the auto manufacturers that use their tech? What other products can they make? Auto-pilot?
Tesla is rumored to use some of the ME tech. Tesla has hired enough people in this field to develop their own tech... that is Elon Musk style: develop in house.
cajunblazer: Well said. On the average 98% of the trips are local. On the few trips that need SC use, the majority of people take a break every 2-3 hours to use the bathroom, drink, snack, especially with family. What I would save in gas, it would more than pay for drink/snack.
Anyway, with time, Tesla will offer batteries with 500 mile range. Time is in Tesla favor: cars will get lighter with improved design+materials, energy efficiency. KW-hr/kg will go up. The new battery gigafactory will reduce $/KW-hr by 50%. It is not like Moore's Law, but there significant improvements to be made.
I got nothing against shorting, but shorting Tesla hardly makes sense. Especially with huge short positions. It has been a crowded short trade for a long time. Plus momo is against you.
Want to short? Wait for the Fed tightening to take effect and the market to start rolling over. Then go for out of money puts to get started. Wish I had done back in 2007.
Long TSLA since 35 and added.
I own a 85p. Connect it every night to HPWC at 25A, charge to 75%. At max range, I can reach most of my destinations. May be 4-6 times/yr will have to use my ICE. When SCs get installed in my area, i will ditch the ICE. 20-40 min SC use is no big deal occasionally. The 85p is fun to drive, minimal maintenance. Dont g et. Stressed out about going to gasoline station 98% of the time.
Short interest is nearly 30M, or 42% of available float. Lot of bad news like fires, battery shortage poor guidance. Stock crashed. I think it is still oversold. The short trade is crowded.
Yes, it makes sense to keep expectations in check. Avoids shareholder law suits. Also it keeps from investors being carried away and buying the stock at a hi price. It is better to let performance lead the stock price than the other way around.
Tesla has all the tech pieces in place. Their factory is working. Model S is a great product with good demand. Model X may be just as good if not better. Within 3 years they will deploy GenIII at mass market prices (relatively). Elon says they will get the required battery tech working for GenIII. It may also increase the range of Model S/X to 500 miles. Then there is the supercharger network.
The important issue is if Tesla can build a $35,000 GenIII that has 200 mile range? Build a 300 mile GenIII for $40,000. Make 25% gross margins? Disrupt the ICE market? Does Tesla have proprietary battery and battery mgt tech that are barriers to competitors like hi power density, low cost, safety, etc? Network effect of superchargers?
It is a hi risk, hi reward stock. For longs and shorts.
Would you please indicate the source of the news/link?
It all adds up. It will take the combination of a mass market priced car like the GenIII at $35,000, plus a critical mass coverage of superchargers, service, marketing to start a tornado in sales. Production will have to step up big time.
Right now, what we got are beta products. Not mass market products.
Those VINs were coming out too fast. I could see the production rate going to 600-700/week from 500/week range with improvements in design, automation, supply chain, etc. Anything above is unlikely so soon. Most likely they handed out the VINs with big batches in between for the export market. I doubt it was done deliberately.
Last week, the VIN numbers being posted dropped significantly on the Tesla Motor forum. The analysts, traders, etc follow the numbers closely. The drop was too steep to mean a slow down in sales. Most likely, Telsa changed the way they give out numbers. When I bought my MS, they gave me the VIN within a couple of days after the order was finalized. Now they may have chosen to give out VIN when the order is ready for payment or shipment. Something like this could cause a steep drop in VINs.
Anyway, the stock is going to trade on rumors now prior to earnings. Scare the heck out of longs and shorts. Retest of 160 is certainly possible. As a long, I would like to see a correction, skepticism, pessimism,low expectations, hi short interest before the earnings release.
Sure, it could power a personal version of Elektroboot! Elon should have started from scratch. Designed custom titanium hull car completely sealed powered buy their induction motor for road use. Waster drive using water jets via separate sealed motors. Probably would have cost less than what he paid for the 007 car.
Anyway, he is better off focusing on developing Model X and improving on Model S.
The whole essence of investing is anticipating. You can not invest after it proves itself... the stock will be north of $500+. Tesla has all the technology components to succeed with Model S+X. The battery has enough capacity to give a nominal range of 300 miles. It can be charged at home in most cases. Public chargers are a fraction of what a gasoline station costs. Superchargers are being installed in major markets for long distance. 500+ mile batteries are on the way per Elon Musk.
Mass market deployment will take place on Tesla in conduction with Panasonic starts producing batteries with higher energy density and lower $/KW-hr as Elon as indicated in the annual conference. $35k auto with 200 mile range is certainly possible within 3 years. I think that the range will extend to 300 miles over time.
With cost of a fill-up at 1/10 of gasoline in most markets, smoother ride, good performance, low maintenance, etc Tesla can certainly disrupt the the ICE market. Yes, it is a risky bet to invest in Tesla, but also there may be huge rewards. What I call an asymmetric bet, with -1X downside and 5X+ upside. The odds were even better when I started investing at 35-40 and 50% of the float was short. The odds were -1X downside and 20X+ upside.
I don't usually short, but I got nothing against shorts. Just be realistic about risk/reward and the probabilities, either way.
The stock market looks at the future. I looked at the data and the latest rate of VIN issuance is between 700-800, but probably closer to 700. That is an annualized rate of 35,000 cars/year. As the geographic and the supercharger expansion continues, it is reasonable to expect the demand to reach 1,000/week or annualized rate of 50,000 cars/year.
Tesla is investing in equipment, automation and supply chain as well as design upgrades to increase manufacturing efficiency. Considering that the ASP $90,000, there is a lot of room to increase gross margins to at least 25% by year end. Tesla is not run by dummies. They have talented and experienced folks from Toyota, MB, etc who can scale production efficiently. It is not a linear model.
With Model X, the company could sell 100,000/year rate by the end of 2015. Do the math for earnings, valuation.
CNG tank, even at just 5,000 psi is quite heavy and hold limited fuel. It will take most of the trunk space. Then there is the space needed for the gasoline tank. Fire hazard? Honda offers a Civic NG, but not too much success.
Fire hazard? Imagine what a hit to the CNG tank will do. It would blow up and in turn blow up the gasoline tank. A nice gasoline/NG mixture with Oxygen! Very explosive. The US military used them in Vietnam. Make the Ford Pinto look like a firecracker.
I do not think the bashers are taking losses. Most of these folks are paid to post by public relation firms, private funds, 3rd parties. Same with the trolls on Seeking Alpha, etc. In 1998-2000 I saw some pumpers and they were pros... posting sophisticated posting on techinvestor. It is ok, it is a free country a long as taxes are paid. At least they are not peddling child porn.
Got to do your own DD. Manage capital and risk.
I think that Tesla is focussed in optimizing the design, manufacturing process, supply chain, etc. All this will improve quality, reduce costs with economies of scale. Then scale up with Model X. It does not make sense to finalize design, manufacturing until then.
I suspect the Model X will be heavier than Model S, etc. A higher battery pack capacity would help. That will take time to. I would like to see Model S sales hit 50,000/year rate before Model X.
Not surprised, considering how many negative articles are posted. Expectations by pros are very low. Tesla is expected to loose money with just 21,000 sales for 2013. Hopefully we can get the short interest to 30M soon.
The incentive to go with MS is huge in Norway. Due to taxes a small BMW costs close to $100k. Gasoline, parking, maintenance are hi for ICE autos. Besides free SC use, there is free charging everywhere.
Norway is tightwad. Rich country with hi taxes. Highest sovereign wealth fund. Hi savings rate. Different than Anglosaxons. They all look pale to me!
It makes sense for Tesla do delay Model X. Right now Tesla is still optimizing the design of Model S, automating the factory, and lowering costs and reliability of their supply chain. Then those advances can be applied to Model X design, factory and supply chain as well. Right now, Tesla is selling every Model S they make and got supply chain constraints.