Ftc The first clinical data release that I'm aware of is the Phase 2d data on TRV927 due in the 2nd qt 2016 .
There is also an option held by Allergan tied to this data which would mean a $65m payment to TRVN if Allergen likes what they see.
Silver ...at $9.10 I'll add . Not suggesting anyone else do likewise . I still like the long term prospects so its a long term hold rather then short term trade
Silver ...OT good call on Smith and Wesson . No I didn't buy any . Have been 50% in cash for some time .
Don't like the over all economic background and would prefer to wait for some kind of wash out or extreme negative sentiment readings before adding to anything .
Stockham ...good info thx.
Can you provide any more info regarding the delayed Medicare approval.
My wife runs a stage 4 CKD ( chronic kidney disease ) clinic and prescribes HK meds .
She has on average 1 patients every 10 days either in clinic or on dialysis that has HK
Without Medicare approval she says none of her patients will be paying ...$600 a mth ?..for Veltassa .
Most of her patients are on Medicare or Medicaid.
Does Medicaid cover ?
No current position
Full article now out online ( free ) at New England Jour...of etc .
This drug will be approved and every hospital will carry it
JMO ...and I'm way underweight in this
Golong , my guess is as follows .
They have the $ to fund their pain med ,Olicerdine , all the way thru P 3 trials , but are reliant on Allergan exercising their option on the Heart failure drug in mid 2016 and paying them $65m to continue that program..
If Allergan did not exercise that option , but TRVN wanted to continue that program ....that could use this shelf filing to fund that program.
Data from the TRV027 heart failure trial is due in the 2nd qt 2016
Silver SWHC Smith and Wesson ? Guns ?
I'm originally from New Zealand where the only gun you could buy was a single shot hunting rifle .
Consequently "mass killings " are almost non existent in NZ.
I have never understood why almost anyone can buy semi automatic guns and pistols in this country .
I'm mainly bio tech orientated .
Hi Golong and Mark
Yes I doubled my position also ,on this apparent stop loss take down .
Alta Partners have a position in Co ...they also backed ZSPH
Believe TRVN raised $73m at $9.75 back on 9/16 so your purchase Golong was pretty close to last capital raise.
All the data I've seen so far looks very encouraging . So the risks is that there is not much in the way of catalysts until they start their P3 trials in 1st and 2nd Qt 2016
FDA meeting re P2 data Q1 2016
Initiate P3 safety study Q1 2016
Initiate P3 trial Q2 2016 .....all of the above re Olicerdine to replace Morphine in Acute pain
Another Co that just had a beat down was GBT .
You may want to take a look . They will have a lot more data at end of Q1 2016 . Drug is active , no serious AE's . Questions on sustainability of efficacy ...that only long term ( 90 days ) data will answer ..Trial underway .
Let me know if U chk it out
Hi Golong OT
Early days . They need to run 2 P 3 trials in 2016 for their pain med ( alternative to opiates ) and will have data on their Acute heart failure drug mid 2016 . AGN has an option on their heart failure drug.
Their pain med drug is wholly owned by TRVN and is patent protected.
Alta Partners ( who backed ZSPH ) are major holders ( would need to recheck that but still believe so ) .
As you know I'm a fan of following Alta Partners . I think they took a major hit on ZFGN , but scored big time with ZSPH.
Alta Partners are usually in it for the eventual sale of the Co ...ala ZSPH
Have no idea on eventual price target but their pain med has the potential to replace SOC ( Standard of Care ) as its safer , faster acting and may facilitate earlier hospital discharge so save hospital $.
Do you know of competitors in the field and where they are in their trial ?
Do U see any red flags here . ???? .... they have $169m in cash end of 3rd Qt 2015.
Wife likes what she reads so far ( you know my wife : ) ..based on her experience in the ER / Hospital setting.
Anyway ..early days . probably a lot more action in RLYP over next 90 days .
I'm not in the camp that expects a BO offer this weekend.
I expect any Co interested would want to see the DDI ( drug / drug interaction ) results first.
Having said that tho , I'm sure RLYP would rather sell to some one like Sanofi , who already has a presence in the field , then try and launch Veltassa themselves with only a co marketing agreement with Sanofi.
So suggestions that other Co's are interested may force Sanofi to act.
I don't think RLYP really wants to go up against AZN in marketing spend for the HK market . A larger Co like Sanofi will do it so much better.
I think the market for Veltassa is bigger then what Berens ( MS ) is figuring ... but not as large as White Coat Mafia thinks . Actually the BAML survey may be fairly close .
Cardilologists seem to lean towards Veltassa , and Nephrologists towards ZS-9 ...for different reasons .
Anyway ..theres a market for both and the market for Veltassa may be bigger then I originally thought .
Hey Golong ...great day for you , congrats .
I don't currently have a position . ( took a quick 40% gain from $14 to $20 ).
May add on pull backs .
I'm less negative on RLYP then I used to be . ...the change ?...data on high blood pressure , the BAML ( Bank of America / Merril Lynch ) survey and Andy Biotechs post on Twitter .
Sanofi seems the natural for any BO.
Have you looked at TRVN ?
Alta Partners are big backers ( they also backed ZSPH ) and are known for guiding Co's thru trials to eventual buy outs . TRVN was just granted FDA Fast Track status . P 3 trial data on pain med in Q1 2016 .
Let me know if U take a look.
vme These are options that the CEO has that vest on a monthly basis .
This means that every month he can buy 20,000 shares for $7.40 a share and sell them at the current market price .
Expect him to do the same next month
Its a 10b5-1 trading plan
The shares sold are part of the CEO's 10b5-1 plan. He still has 737,877 options to buy the stock at $7.40 a share . They vest monthly ...so expect him to sell another 20,000 shares automatically , next month .
This is nothing to worry about for those of U long the stock .
While he can suspend his 10b5-1 plan he would be reluctant to do so , if there was potential BO offers, as it would smack of insider trading .
If Co gets bought , don't cry for the CEO ...he'll make out just fine.
I'm not impressed with the "non binding " supposed offer. I can make a "non binding " offer also ...don't mean a thing until penalty clauses are written in for non performance ( ie failing to close ) .
Anyway ...great day for all you longs .
Hope Golong et al are hoisting a few tonight .
The next key driver is whether or not they proceed to P 3 trials .
Does anyone on this board know if the efficacy warrants it .
On my first glance , appears so especially since adverse events are same as placebo.
But a P 3 trial will be a major expense , probably over 1,000 in the trial and run over a yr .
Then the FDA will want an Outcome trial to be underway before approval .
So its a major commitment .
Are the results good enough to justify it ?
Appreciate informed comments
Well Golong ...I'm up almost 50% on my RLYP position ...who woulda thunk : )
Certainly not me .
But time to take some profits .
Not suggesting anyone else do like wise