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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

akanz2 232 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Feb 12, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Outcomes

    by dendreonpro 16 hours ago

    Hi Den ...happy holidays
    For the benefit of discussion I'll throw in the following
    I don't think there are any OTC fish oils in the US . OTC drugs I believe are FDA approved drugs that you can now buy Over The Counter ...Epadel in Japan is now OTC I believe.

    What you are referring to are Dietary Supplements ....and I believe if you search early low dose trials you will find clinical studies ...just not Outcome trials ...and all the studies done at far lower doses ..say 1gm -2 gm epa/dha.

    Dietary supplement EPA ( Plus EPA and Omegia Via EPA ) ...lower TG's ( and I assume other risk markers ) in a similar dose response levels . I have had lipid panels run ( blood tests ) after 3 mths on PlusEpa ( 2012 )
    3 months on Omegai Via EPA ( late 2013 ) and Vascepa ( 2014 ) ...results are similar

    So why do I take Vascepa instead of the DS alternatives ...quality /quantity /purity and cost of the EPA.
    Vascepa is the gold standard , OmegiaVia EPA is a good alternative for those with no insurance coverage ,

    But cost matters OmegiaVia EPA is about $60 a month .
    Vascepa with great insurance and the company's coupon can be as low as $19 a month.
    Vascepa with no insurance but using Amarins coupon costs me $151.72 a month
    Doubt if anyone will buy Vascepa with no insurance coverage or coupon ..cost will be about $220 a month
    AK

  • Reply to

    Unconfirmed new Scripts

    by g550drvr Dec 19, 2014 7:32 AM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 20, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    Thanks
    Wow ...38K a week to breakeven ...lot higher then I guessed.
    Good to read that they could probably make it to read out, with cash on hand, but I expect them to want to maintain 2qts of cash as a cushion .
    Thanks for the DD
    AK

  • Reply to

    Unconfirmed new Scripts

    by g550drvr Dec 19, 2014 7:32 AM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 20, 2014 2:25 PM Flag

    hdgabor
    Whats you estimated number of total weekly scripts needed for Co to break even ?
    You had mentioned that margins are expected to increase in 2015 so if RI reads out early 2016 , whats your estimate of the cash needed for the Co to make it till then ?
    Thanks
    AK

  • Reply to

    After holding this for 2.5 years finally sold it

    by maheyb30 Dec 18, 2014 2:09 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 19, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    Hi Mahey
    Thanks for responding ....shows a certain maturity . This is actually a good learning experience for you as painful as it may be .
    I have learn't the most re investing over the past 40 yrs , when I suffered large loss's. It forces you to reassess
    My lesson's are as follows .
    1) Always stay diversified ....my largest position by far is the biotech ETF IBB , which I've held for several yrs
    My newest ( but far smaller position ) is RSX with a 6 mth horizon ...I like to buy panic , sell parties .
    2) Scale in and scale out of positions .
    3) If a position drops 15% always take yourself out of at least half your position ( 10% may be to tight )
    4) Every morning I look at my positions and ask " what could go wrong here , would I buy this again today "
    5) Emotions rule ...when ever I see sentiment indicators like CNN's Fear and Greed index register extreme greed I sell part of my positions ...when ever I see extreme fear ( recent Ebola scare ) I force myself to buy
    6) Understand that CEO's are often cheerleaders , so take whatever they say with a cup of salt .

    Best of luck ..small cap biotech is very risky no matter how good the story may sound ...diversify
    AK

  • Reply to

    After holding this for 2.5 years finally sold it

    by maheyb30 Dec 18, 2014 2:09 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 18, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    Mahey
    Thanks for sharing
    Can you share lessons learned ...if any ?
    For instance ...why didn't you set yourself a stop loss at say 15% below your purchase price ...to take you out of your position and give you time to reassess .....This is one of my cardinal rules in investing ....always preserve capital
    Second , if you knew Joe Z was selling such as large chunk ...why did you buy . Mgt selling for other then thru pre arranged sale agreements , is a warning sign for any stock.

    There were multiple times to get out of this stock ...failure to find buyer and GIA Dec 12 , Adcom decision Oct 13 , Appeal denied Mid 14.......etc all at higher prices then today.

    I am not meaning to be critical . You have obviously suffered a loss . I would like to know what you have learned from this to prevent you and others making the same mistake again.
    I remain a buyer at any price under $1
    I see it as a low cost speculative bet on RI being stopped at interim or before
    Good luck with your future investments
    AK

  • akanz2 akanz2 Dec 16, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    Richard
    misleading longs are almost as bad as misleading shorts ...but at least they aren't as obnoxious.
    "few more thousand scripts and co could become profitable :...!!! yeah , like about 14,000 scripts per week ..
    If weekly scripts grow by 3% a week ...how many weeks until we reach 24,000 scripts per wk ?
    Well I'll let you do the math.....but roughly around 34 wks IF we maintain 3% growth per week .
    Now figure cash burn ...so an interesting convergence ....as we run out of $ , we get very close to break even ( with 3% script growth ) at about the earliest time we may see RI interim data.
    AK

  • Oh the joy of investing in small cap bio's ..to wake up and find your position is down 25% because of the lock up expiring.
    I guess its wait time to see if an SEC disclosure materializes
    AK

  • Reply to

    Reduce It Trial bets

    by akanz2 Dec 13, 2014 1:06 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 15, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    Hi Cuzz
    Its an event driven Outcome Trial , so pretty hard to move the goal posts .
    Don't expect the trial to be halted at interim if efficacy is less then 20%.
    If its not halted at interim , I'll be gone .
    If the trial runs the full length and only show 15% benefit , then I expect those results will be challenged solely on the basis of the paraffin oil used as the placebo.
    AK

  • Reply to

    Another day in AMRN paradise

    by pkarnett83 Dec 15, 2014 10:44 AM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 15, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    PK your post is an example of recency bias ... you can not make a decision on buying or selling AMRN today , based on what JZ did or did not do in 2012.
    Look a current valuation , look at potential catalysts ( expanded label , early interim data ) ..look at short term risks ( push back on Tier 2 coverage , risk of dilution to raise funds to reach interim ) etc and then make a decision ...what say yea
    AK

  • Reply to

    Reduce It Trial bets

    by akanz2 Dec 13, 2014 1:06 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 15, 2014 10:28 AM Flag

    Jan -Feb 2016 ...sounds good to me . I predict later tho as suspect they will run it 1 qt more then they need to as they know they will be criticized for being under powered.
    JMO
    AK

  • Reply to

    identical to Vascepa?

    by uncle_edscharper Dec 15, 2014 8:42 AM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 15, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    Vascepa is DEVOID of DHA
    Epadel contains 2 % DHA ...read the patents
    AK

  • Reply to

    Reduce It Trial bets

    by akanz2 Dec 13, 2014 1:06 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 14, 2014 9:34 PM Flag

    Hi Den
    Yes JELIS used 1.8gms of Epadel ( almost identical to Vascepa ) but the patients were on a high fish diet , so both groups had higher O 3 blood serum levels then what we see in a US population

    Re blocked /deleted messages . Wonder if the shorts are flagging your posts as abusive on YMB , ..thus preventing the new posts from posting .
    Happens to me some times ...
    Don't worry ..I saved your post where you said you were buying drinks in Vegas ( TG levels be dammed ) if RI is stopped on your projected date. : )
    Suggest you don't risk more then you can afford to lose ..many have been hurt in this stock ( thanks to the FDA Adcom )

    AK

  • Reply to

    Reduce It Trial bets

    by akanz2 Dec 13, 2014 1:06 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 14, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    Vascepa_flop ...no I've recently been buying AMRN
    Anything around $1, I view as a cheap spec on Reduce It being stopped for efficacy either before or at Interim.
    Consensus seems to be late 2015 -early 2016 .
    My only concern is funding until then
    JMO
    AK

  • akanz2 akanz2 Dec 14, 2014 4:48 PM Flag

    car90
    any morning for coffee ..The Depot /plaza Mill Valley Ca ....but you have to buy
    AK

  • Reply to

    Reduce It Trial bets

    by akanz2 Dec 13, 2014 1:06 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 14, 2014 4:45 PM Flag

    Celebrate _Fish ...well done ...at last an informed opposing view .
    Citing from Adcom ?
    Dr Ballantyne and Dr Baum wrote opposing views on this in the NEJM.
    Dr Baum supports your view re "mineral oil "
    Dr Ballantyne counters with the fact they used Lt weight refined paraffin oil ,not regular mineral oil , that similar effects were seen in the Lovaza trials and that these effects should wane over time .
    Reduce It is an Outcome trial ...so for lt wt mineral oil to effect results it would have to reduce the benefit of the Statin in the Statin only arm .
    There is no evidence that I can find that proves paraffin oil effects Statins ...but I acknowledge that some will always use this to say it effects results .
    Which is why I want 25% efficacy or better
    AK

  • akanz2 akanz2 Dec 14, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    Vascepa-flop
    Actually I agree with these 10 steps ...they are almost exactly what I do ..except 1-2 glass's of wine most nights .....yet while on max dose Lipitor my TG's would still be in the low 200's and my HDL never above 40

    We are talking about mixed dyslipemia here ...the ANCHOR indication ...about 24m people in the US with high TG's and or high LDL or very low HDL ....and who still have high TG's despite Statin therapy.

    Anyone with what is considered a normal lipid profile EXCEPT high TG's will lower them by following the 10 steps you outline ...
    For those diagnosed with mixed dyslipidemia .., Vascepa is the best add on if insurance will cover , OmegiaVia EPA 500 ( lower quality EPA) for those with no insurance coverage. to consider.

    But really , TG's is almost a side issue . Most of the CV benefit appears to be in lowering hsCrp , other surrogate risk markers ...and most importantly for the Reduce It cohort ...making coronary plaques less likely to rupture. ( EPA has been shown to strengthen the fiborous cap covering the plaque )
    Most , if not all , in RI will have coronary arterial plaques . All we need is Vascepa to reduce rate of plaque rupture

    AK

  • Reply to

    Reduce It Trial bets

    by akanz2 Dec 13, 2014 1:06 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 14, 2014 4:03 PM Flag

    Celebrate -fish ...hmmm informed short ...refreshing
    Chk the views of Dr Ballantyne
    He has vigorously defended the lt weight paraffin oil used . Dr Chowdbury ? also dismissed the concerns I believe .
    Either way ...thats why I want 25% efficacy to stop the trial ....there is no way that paraffin can effect results even a third of that much
    AK

  • akanz2 akanz2 Dec 14, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    Back in the day when I was accused of being a short !...Dec 2012
    AK

  • akanz2 akanz2 Dec 14, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    Hi Joey_Zee and CY
    Few pts
    Anyone who cares can review my posting history ...starting in early 2012 I was posting about trying to get into the Reduce It trial
    Late 2012 ...Dec in particular I was warning of my concerns about the pricing of Vascepa , that DS alternatives ( altho lower quality ) provided competition .

    I was out of the stock at that pt. in Dec 2012 . I did buy in again before Adcom , believing the risk / benefit analysis supported approval. I think the FDA made a mistake ...Anchor should have been approved.

    I don't really care if posters are long or short ...just want to read well written arguments for either position.
    Unfortunately there is a dearth of well written posts for being short .
    I have been both bullish and neutral on AMRN . Right now anything close to $1 is a cheap bet on Reduce It being stopped for efficacy . Its just a matter of trying to determine when that will be and how much $ the company will have to find to get there .
    JMO ..AMRN is a small high risk spec position for me
    AK

  • Reply to

    Reduce It Trial bets

    by akanz2 Dec 13, 2014 1:06 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 14, 2014 2:17 PM Flag

    HDG
    Thanks for the detail
    I believe one of the early graphs posted by AMRN showed events tracking below 5.2%...back in the day they were accepting TG levels between 150-200
    AK

AMRN
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