Novice Wife works on a dialysis floor . Loss of patency ( blood flow thru fistula's ) is a major problem .
If PRTO's Vonapanitase works ...even to reduce loss of patency by 20-30% ...it will be a major win .
Their P 3 trial ends in Nov 2016 .
There was some concerns re their P 2 trial results but can't find the details at the moment.
The excitement Friday is over speculation re their CT order filed
( SEC ok'd them not filing some confidential financial or commercial info )
That may or not be BO offers or partner interest ...we'll see
Hi Hap The Brexit decision will affect trade in the am . At 7pm PT its to close to call BUT if Brexit wins , expect a huge " risk off " move at the open tomorrow.
Silver ...its a Medicare Advisory Board empowered to act to control Medicare spending . Apparently will render a decision on Thursday about growth in spending ...whether its within projected target range or not.
If not , where to cut /curb spend by 2018....spooking all biotech currently
There's a Govt decision due ..possibly on Thursday ..re containing Medicare costs .
Barons has an article on it ...spooking all Biotech today .
Hap The 5.58 was a spike down on the open ...probably a lot of stop loss's triggered . Stock was there for a very short time and then traded around $6.2 ( where it is now ) .....from the chart I'm looking at .
Anyway , agree that stocks can " easily get beaten into the ground "as you say
Richard interesting thx .
I bt more at the close today . Market will be on edge until post Brexit ( then we will worry about some thing else : ).
I'll stay long unless TRVN drops more then 20% below my purchase price ...if that happens I'll sell half and accept I miss timed the purchase or didn't fully understand the downside risks.
1) I'm assuming the P 3 trail will use the same dosing regime as the P2b trial ..a loading dose of 1.5mg and probably followed with the .35 maintenance dose. If anyone knows different ...please advise .
This dose showed less hypo ventilation , less vomiting , less nausea , plus faster onset of action then Morphine
2) CEO recently purchased shares , direct / open market ( 5/26 ) at $7.08
3) P3 should finish end of year with data in March 17 ...Co has funds to see this thru.
4) General market is "risk off " due to Brexit fears .
Bottom line ...seems a pretty low price for an FDA fast tracked pain relief drug that has so far shown to be safer and more tolerable then Morphine when used at the .35 maintenance level after a loading dose of 1.5 mg.
Biotech is risky ..only invest what you can afford to lose .
The "tell " was Dr Bunn from Harvard agreeing to be on the review panel. Doubt if he would have been there unless the data was impressive .
In term of a deal with Big Pharma. J Farrow is now their CFO. He engineered the sale of ZSPH to AZN last year.
GBT is also FDA Fast Tracked and I believe have plenty of COH ( cash on hand ) .
Data looks very encouraging .
Major unmet medical need.
I'm neutral on AMRN ( not outright bearish ). We have seen a 50% run up in a little over a month .
Just don't expect the same for the next month ..or even half that . There is always the possibility of some deal as Shortfish points out but I don't think anyone will agree to anything significant until we know the DMC decision at Interim analysis .
By the way ..if DMC says continue ...Amarin and everyone else will stay blinded . No one will know the RRR ( relative risk reduction ) other then that its probably higher then 3% otherwise the trial is likely to be stopped for futility ( very unlikely IMHO )
Any way , good luck
Looking forward to you proving me wrong , with a stop at Interim ..:)
AK ( whalatane /Kiwi on Ihub
Shortfish If the Baker Bros step in and refi the $15m due in Jan ( they did some thing similar late last yr ) and if scripts increase more then 3% a week on a rolling 4 wk basis ......then its possible AMRN avoids the need to partner or dilute and I will have sold to early .
If R-IT is stopped at interim I will have definitely sold to early ...: )
All good arguments BUT script growth is not fast enough to stop cash burn .
Co will need a capital raise or a stop at Interim . Co acknowledges that the bar is set high for a stop at interim .
Its not often I get a 50% gain on a trade in a month ...so will settle for that and wish all you longs, the best of luck .
After an approx 50% gain on this trade in a little over a month , I'm moving to the side lines .
At the conference J Thero is pretty adamant that R-IT will not be stopped at Interim .
The last 4 wks has seen pretty tepid script growth .
Co is still losing about $7m a month and will be down to about $39m cash on hand if the R-IT interim results aren't released until the end of Sept.
Co has $15m note due in Jan2017 and no signs of a deal with the Baker Bros or anyone else to refi this .
They will need funding from some where unless they make some over seas deal and to date no sign of that.
Am also more cautious now on the over all market .
JMO / guess. AMRN's done better then I expected over past month . Not pushing my luck.
AK ( Whalatane / Kiwi on IHUB )
IMHO because of the panel of experts they have gathered to discuss the data June 10th .
Doubt if Dr Bunn from Harvard would be there unless he knew the data was a major step forward
So , interesting to revisit this post .
My view is still the same
Buying at $1.51 was buying a Call option on R-IT .
My trading style is always to have a trailing stop, 20% below current prices ...so note to Swalchie ..I've locked in a profit
Swalchie , I believe I wrote that if AMRN dropped below $1.20 I would immediately sell half . I would have obviously timed it wrong and my basic capital preservation rules would require me to limit my loss's.
In the mean time ...I'll continue to accumulate AMRN at various times when it trades between $1.40 and $1.60 as long as scripts show a steady increase ( on a 4 wk rolling average ) .
And I reserve the right to change my mind ..;)
Thx for the updates Key
Trend supports Jefferies Co view of a " steeper upward trajectory in TRx in 2016 "
If AMRN is able to maintain a roughly 5% weekly increase ,then scripts total will double in 14-15 wks.
( rule of 72 )
Babybull I've read the filings
" Twice -daily dosing with Rhopressa had a greater IOP- lowering effect but also had a higher rate of discontinuation due to adverse events "
" Specifically , Rocket 2 found the overall rates of adverse events -mostly mild to moderate hyperemia - were around 65% in the once -daily Rhopressa and 78% in the twice -daily group "
I don't have a problem with Rho being approved. Just think patients will prefer an eye drop thats as effective without the Red Eye adverse event profile
JMO ...like I said . You can hedge your position by owning both
Century ...are U responding to me ? It helps if U identify who you are responding to .
Suggest you read the most recent CC and the Co's comments on the annual cost of Reduce -It .
babybull ...thanks for the large print . Due to my glaucoma it was hard to read the smaller script .
So if both work ( Rhopressa and Tradodenoson ) ....but Rho causes Red Eye but Trad doesn't ...which do you think I should use ?
You know you can always hedge your position by buying both , right. ?
I've traded in and out of AMRN since the Marine trial days of 2010 .
The last time I was long AMRN was starting Oct/Nov in 2014 ...selling out in early 2015.
I'm back in now because I believe they will make it ( with some dilution if necessary ) to an early 2018 read out . I believe that read out will show clinical benefit .....more then anything else we have seen to date as an add on the Statins.
There will always be the issue of " why not use Omegia Via EPA etc " which is a dietary supplement I have used...88% EPA ...about $66 a month. The answer is always Insurance coverage and co pays for Vascepa which you know is 96% EPA .
If R-IT reads out with anything close to 20% RRR , it will be a major game changer in the preventive treatment of CAD and strokes and MD's will want to prescribe Rx ( FDA approved ) drugs ...not " suggest " dietary supplements and insurance co's should be willing to cover with affordable co pays..
AMRN ( the stock ) looks pretty bombed out to me . Not many people post here any more . Swalchie's comments are always welcome as is anyone who can provide informed opposing views.
Bottom line ..I don't see more than a 20% downside from here ...and there are potential upsides like an Interim stop or faster script growth .
JMO ...good luck