Hope you recovered from last weeks smack down .
OT ...Thanks for that note on CEMP .. I read up on it and bt last week ...technicals and fundamentals were great ...only problem was that some were hyping the stock so much it became very vulnerable to any market sell off.
If you liked it at 40 , you loved it back near 30 ....nothings changed re the Co from what I read
Great find on your part
The official source you want is " Secondary Prevention Analysis from JELIS " ...just Google that .
Staccani is referring to the subgroup with very low HDL cholesterol combined with high Triglycerides ( HDL under 40 and TG over 200 ).
This lipid combination is often referred to as the Axis Disorder and is common among Diabetics . Most other trials have also seen benefit in the same subgroup ( ACCORD and AIM-High ) for instance ...but here again these are subgroups.
I estimate that probably at least half those enrolled in Reduce It will have low HDL with high TG's ...and thus be the first major trial where these patients are cohort being studied.
So since this subgroup saw benefit in JELIS, ACCORD and AIM -HIGH ...chances are we will see benefit also in Reduce it ( where this group may be the majority ) .
The questions is ...How much and Will it be enough, to halt the trial at Interim ( 2016 ) for efficacy
Gwin ..Cramer " Biotech not a bubble , just got overheated "... lot of euphoria came out really fast ...chk CEMP which I was buying yesterday
I was buying CEMP yesterday ...one of Golong's favorites .
In that stock a lot of the euphoria came out very fast ....now I consider it good value , lot of potential and on a technical basis also ...a good buy .
Well TTPH is the obvious play ...so I'll have to buy some tomorrow . With CEMP you have Community Acquired Pneumonia ...a real concern. My wife is a PA ( Physicians Assistant ) at a major hospital ...Her opinion ... they really needed new drugs to treat it
To be announced tomorrow
Anyone following this ?
If you liked ZSPH at $50 ...you must love it at $40 . Co now have a ton of cash , a long term clinical trial almost finished , no new AE's that I'm aware of and everyone as you say " heading for the exits "
Even Golong is "licking his wounds with six figure loss's " ...sorry Golong .
All of this IMHO is a good thing ...it remove the speculative excess and creates a value buy
Contraband ...re your comment "worry about the later ..re sea change in attitude "
That you and others are worrying is IMHO , a good thing . There was far to much complacency in Biotech .
Huge run ups like CEMP and ESPR ....what could go wrong .. printing money..
If you liked CEMP at $40 then you must love it at $30 ...still the same company , same Fast Tracked ? drug ...same market potential , no serious AE's ....just a lot better value .
Fundamentals remain intact ..correct ? ..all we have seen is a change in sentiment ...the reintroduction of some fear ...which IMHO is a good thing
I'll sit with about 50% cash for awhile . I'd rather buy when everyone hates Biotech in general and anyone who posts "buy the dips " in particular.
This may be a " buy the dip " moment , but when traders post that, it suggests a certain complacency , which is never a good thing.
I prefer to buy panics....not seeing it yet in Biotech ...maybe we won't .
Hi Golong .
I had started lightening up last wk . Actually sold some ESPR last wk and had Schwab mail me a chk ...why mail ?...so I wouldn't have access to the $ for a couple of day ..forced trading stop ..:-).
Stopped out of the rest early am today.
Started selling right from the open ...was down to 40% cash pretty fast then started nibbling at your CEMP at the end of the day . Liked what I've read on it and will probably add some more tomorrow.
Still a brutal day tho but manageable.
Be interesting to see if we snap back or trend sideways /down for awhile .
I still like Biotech but returns have been huge the past month before this week ...ESPR for example.
Interesting that you added . When have you sold ...anything ?
Not being critical ...just wondering ....did you sell any of this or RYLP at higher prices ...never noticed any sell posts ?
Holy ...Have to give you credit for pushing your short .
No major catalyst on the horizon . I'm stopped out and revisit later ....I had bt in the 30's so it was a triple for me ( nice when it happens but its rare ).
ESPR 's ECT 1002 will I believe be an important drug ...but its years before its on the market .
Agree ...patients want pills before needles . Insurance co's want the safest and CHEAPEST way to reduce CV risk . The PCSK9's IMHO will only address a very small high risk market
The rest with be ECT 1002 instead of Statins
ECT 1002 with Statins ( for those that can handle statins and are not at LDL goal.
ECT 1002 with Zetia
Its a huge worldwide market ....big money knows this which is why the stock has not sold off.
The clinical program for ECT 1002 is being lead by the co founder of Esperion ..Roger Newton ( from memory ) WHO developed Lipitor for Pfzer .
He knows this space better then anyone .
Could adverse events show up ? ..off course ...thats the risk you take in development stage biotech ...but so far so good ...very clean safety profile .
Have to say one thing tho ..you are persistent ...and so far ...persistently wrong .
Golong ..compare that to the 7% that stopped using Patiromer because of diarrhea and 4.8% stopped using it because of GI issues .
So for your 100,000 patients ..thats 7,000 that stop using if because of diarrhea and 4,800 that stop because of GI issues ...a total of 11,800 stop using the drug
With ZS-9 ..all the side effects were seen at the max dose level 15gms from what I could see ...at lower doses less AE's then the placebo .
The numbers I have for treatment of Edema was 5 ...which is about 2,000 in your 100,000 treatment population
So 100,000 on Partimoer you lose 11,800 patients due to diarrhea and GI issues
100,000 on ZS-9 you don't lose any patients but need to treat 2,000 of them for Edema
Re the secondary ...we knew that was coming for over a week
Holy Cramer has been doing his best to end the euphoria since Friday and again before the open this morning ...with his "do not buy call...let it come in "....so an hr into the trading day where are we ?
Any biotech can easily correct 20% of its high, for any reason ,at any time ...thats biotech.
To go much beyond that IMHO you need a fundamental reason ...adverse events show up , market for drug not as big as expected , FDA wants more data ....yes they are all risks but so far they have not materialized.