One of the interesting things about Improve it is that it proves that another drug, when added to Statins , CAN reduce CV events .
Nothing before Zetia has been proven to do that in a large outcome trial .
So while Zetia has limited additional benefit ( except perhaps for reducing stroke ) ...the results break the " Statin and only Statin " mindset.
So whats up next in terms of Outcome trials ,with drugs added to Statins ...Interim data on Reduce IT .
Anyone know of any others ?
fjest , quick response
Immediate risk on the horizon is whether or not AZN launchs Epanova.
I don't believe AMRN mgt when these say they are not concerned
If AZN does NOT launch its great for AMRN because it probably means that Amarins patents are very strong
Re Niacin / fibrates etc ...these are cardiovascular drugs aimed at raising HDL and lowering LDL in the Anchor market . The Marine market is more about the risk of Pancreatitis . In that market Lovaza is recognized as the best to lower TG's over 750 the furthest ...the problem being the raise in LDL.
Statins can control the LDL in this market but if patient is Statin intolerant ( about 20% ) Vascepa is the best option
We need AMRN to make it to interim analysis and that analysis to be good enough to stop RI for efficacy
Then Vascepa will dominate the mixed D and RI markets ...which are huge.
Thats why I'm long AMRN . Don't think they will make it on the Marine market alone
Agree that his posts are of anger and anguish. He really got burn't will the GIA strategy announced late 2012 .
Its interesting to read his old posts.
Having said that ..I'd rather read his posts then the dietary supplement sales folks who show up with essentualy the same script every time.
His post are at least a cautionary tale on investing in small cap biotech.
So PK ...if you are reading this ..What if anything would ever turn you bullish on the prospects for AMRN ?
You have made the bear argument .
Can you make a bullish argument ?
Yeah its 2) ..conversion at $2.60 .
Can they covert the debt to stock then ? I think HDGator and I discussed this on IHUB some time back ...you might ask him . His response from memory is that they could but would probably not ..certainly not all at one time
Wow Den ...amazing lipid numbers . I'll never see LDL at 55 unless I go on the new PCKS9's
What a deal $9 a month ...I'm paying $151 a month as Kaiser won't cover .
I'm interested to read what you find on the warrants
Den , what you need to look at is the warrants issued to the Coricsa ? group to move their debt back 2 yrs .
Original I think it was $140m due 2017 ...moved back to 2019 ...warrants triggered at about $2.80 .
Considerable dilutive effect from memory ...maybe you could chk the details .
It is relevant to how much price appreciation we could see if the FDA allows Anchor detail on the label ...and sales reps to market CV benefits
Anything on the label that sales reps or patients can sell ( to their MD's ) as being cardio protective ...that MD's and Insurance co will acknowledge may reduce CV events ...will have an almost immediate boast in script #'s and by far more then 12,500 over the next 12 mths
Currently , MD's see Vascepa as largely for lowering the risk of pancreatitis for those with very high TG's ...without raising LDL ..particularly if their patient is Statin intolerant , or wont take a Statin to limit the LDL increase..
Sales rep can't sell it as being cardio protective
Whether the stock would jump to $5 ...doubt it . There are warrants that can be exercised at around $2.80 I believe that may cap any increase .
I'm not an expert on warrants so maybe some one else could opine.
Actually Raf I think its worthwhile to consider PK's pt of view . At least he can articulate the opposing side.
AMRN still has to convince the market that they can get to Interim data without serious dilution.
Stonepine Capitals recent 9m share purchase indicates that those smarter then I think they will.
Lynch at Stonepine is a Harvard MBA and has done well with small cap bios.
From what I can tell they have invested about 20% of their capital in AMRN ...doubt if they would do that without some very serious DD
AK ( in defense of well written opposing view pts )
Well Swalchie ..I have to give you some credit for that end of day decision .
I had doubled my position early Nov ...did not expect the 50% run up ( no I do not have a crystal ball ) but realized from our exchange earlier on the 18th that I was becoming over confident ...so took your advice and lightened up a little.
I will add if the shorts push this back under $1...may wait until it gets closer to 90c if they are successful ...otherwise will ride with what I have.
It may surprise some that I read the negative posts , if they are well written , more then the positive posts .
The reason ...to see if I've missed something ..what could go wrong .
As T3 and many others can attest ...what can go wrong ( Adcom etc ) generally has gone wrong with AMRN
Hopefully thats about to change
Small cap bio is high risk ..do not invest more then u can afford to loose .
DewDiligence on twitter has a cautious opinion on their outlook ...don't know if you follow him but he's very informed on all things biotech .
I'll maintain at least a small position until their ECT 1002 with Statin read out in March 2015.
I can see ETC 1002 with generic statin as a possible low cost alternative to the new PCKS9's.
PCKS9's I'm told will cost anywhere from $12,000 to $30,000 a year ...I can see a lot of insurance push back on that except for the truly Statin intolerant patient at very high risk
Well T3 thats what makes us different from most on this board ...we at least , acknowledge we don't have a crystal ball !
Best of luck
Well the original Yahoo Jessie Livermore is on IHUB predicting a move back under a $1, and with todays over all down tape ( pre market ) there may be those who caught the run up from 90c who will decide to lighten up.
If AMRN goes back to 90c ...I'll re add the position I sold over $1.30 . Stonepine Capital who just disclosed buying $9m didn't invest that expecting dilution or bankruptcy. Most of their trading history is a pretty impressive on small cap biotech buys
Regarding JELIS , Reduce it and PCSK9's ...sorry , you are poorly informed.
Ps to Swalchie ..thanks for reminding me not to get greedy
Sensing blood in the water ...lets see if they can push this back under $1
For the record .
Any MD can prescribe Vascepa for any indication they feel justified ..I have a script and my TG's have never been over 220.
I've been on Vascepa practically since it was approved ...never had any fishy burps
The closest study to Reduce It is the Secondary Prevention Analysis from JELIS ...try googling it ...results " significant relative risk reduction of 23 % in the EPA group P=0.017 " ...and no its not all related to Angina
Anyway ...if the shorts succeed and push the PPS back under a $1 ... well if you are long it just gives you a chance to buy AMRN again ,if you missed the last time.
Not recommending buying or selling , small cap bio tech is high risk etc
OT to Charles
Best research to show your Cardiologist is in Prevention JACC March 27 2012
" The Impact of a Pure EPA Omega -3 Fatty Acid on Coronary Plaque Stabilization " should get you there .
Try googling it ...any questions , ask me on the AMRN board
Esperions drug has lots of promise , but is years away from approval and based on your Lipid profile its unlikely you would be prescribed it, unless you were having a real problem with your Statin med.
Excellent lipid panel numbers ( blood test )
Suggest you consider Vascepa instead of regular fish oil ..its made by Amarin , AMRN ..you see me posting on it on the AMRN board .
No side effects , very safe fish oil drug
Research out that shows that high EPA ( Vascepa ) blood levels reduces arterial plaque ruptures ...and we both have coronary arterial plaques .
There are dietary supplement versions such as Omegia Via EPA that you can try at 3 gm a day if you cant get a script for Vascepa
I'm assuming you don't smoke and exercise moderately .
I'm on max dose Crestor and max dose Vascepa
PCSK9's maybe mid /late 2015 ...early approval for hetero FH patients who can not take Statins .
Will be expensive ...min $1,000 a mth I'm told ..may be as high as $30k a yr
Do not compete with Vascepa IMHO
Thanks for that note . its an AHA update on the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study ..and shows the benefit for men with high LDL levels ( around 180 ) .
Expect we would find similar benefit in women also with high LDL
Please ...one over the top super bull is enough and Raf has that position .