Good to hear from you
If you are ever in Mill Valley Ca ...lets meet for coffee on the plaza .
All the best next week ...now repeat after me ...DIVERSIFY
This is all about reducing hard events ....heart attacks and strokes
It's not about competing with Lovaza ...or the soon to be generic version ...for the hyperTG market .
Hyper TG ( Marine ...over 500 TG level ) is mostly about the risk of pancreatitis ....LDL levels are not a big concern unless they are elevated
For you skeptics ....my wife has prescribed both Lovaza and Vascepa to her patients ..we have debated this endlessly .
Bottom line re the Marine indication ....Vascepa has had marginal impact ...ie those that have high LDL get Vascepa ...those that don't get Lovaza ....look at the script data for both . Lovaza is more effective at lowering very high TG's for those at risk of pancreatitis if their LDL levels are not elevated .
The whole story on Vascepa is can this drug reduce hard CV events ...heart attacks and strokes .
This we do not know until we get some Reduce It data
If Reduce It shows clinical benefit then Omethera , Lovaza or generic Lovaza don't matter because ONLY Vascepa will have been proven to reduce ones chance of a heart attack .....the rest will just lower your risk of pancreatitis
BB ...you are doing a great job
I would just say given the extremely negative tone tonight ...as a contrarian investor that follows sentiment indicators ...AMRN looks like a good spec buy at this pt ....and I emphasize SPEC buy
Cincy ...it's my take that Lars Eckman ( chairman of the board ) is trying to lock in mgt no matter what happens next week . This is prudent IMHO no matter how it appears .
The company must survive at least until an interim analysis of Reduce It
Cincy ...don't mention JAZZ ...ugh ...I was working for a VC in San Francisco early last year ( on his house )
He told me his group had a huge position ( over $350 m ) in JAZZ ....I told him I was staying with AMRN ...this was early 2013 ......just shows you how smart I am :)
My guess is to give them more time to get some Anchor info on the label ...freedom of information etc ..if the FDA does not reinstate . It's just added incentive to prevent these guys bailing of we get -ve news next week
Ps to Raf
The Reduce It data is what it is ....no matter what the FDA says now . The mineral oil placebo issue has hopefully been buried . If I believed in the science as CEO , I would take $1 a yr salary plus $10m in options until interim analysis
Raf ....example 1 ....Steve Jobs .....when he came back to Apple there was no assurance they would come back ....but he believed and galvanized the work force and investors
Thanks retired 747. ...I owned some ICPT thru FBIOX ...appreciate the heads up on the Baker Bros
Raf A smarter PR move is to take a low salary for 1 yr plus a lot of options .
If Thero had said " Pay me $1 for the rest of the year but give me a ton of options " then Cincy and I would have more respect for him
Long ...if that was directed at me I said "probably " sell half ...and I reserve the right to change my mind 20 times between now and then : )
Cincy ..were you asking me ?
Lars Eckman ( new chair ) probably has a plan B . He just doesn't want the current mgt bailing en mass if the FDA says no deal . Someone has to get the Reduce It trial thru to at least interim analysis and keep Marine scrips growing ..
Seriously ...if you were the chairman of the board and mgt came to you and said "we are outta here if we don't get the SPA reinstated "...what would you do and how would you explain it to shareholders
Cincy ... You either believe in the science or you don't.
If the SPA is not reinstated I will hold all my shares until interim data from Reduce it .
If the SPA is reinstated I'll probably sell half ...my average cost is under $4.
You understand that no other drug beside Statins has been proven to reduce the risk of heart attacks ...correct.
We don't know if EPA ( Vascepa ) will reduce CVE ( cardiovascular events ) until we get Reduce It data ...interim data late 2015 possibly .....but you should hold till then based on the Jelis study and the make up of those in the Reduce It trial
Cincy ...as one who was once a CEO and also a Chairman of a board ( subchapter S corp CA ) ...if management came to me and said " we are outta here if we don't get the SPA reinstated " ...I'd make the same deal
Cincy ...I am no fan of current mgt ....but the last thing you want them to do is bail , if the FDA refuses to reinstate the SPA
If the SPA is reinstated then Thero et al's deal is just the cost of doing business ....until we get Speedrunner on the board.
Wow Cincy ...now tell us what you really think
And the PPS if FDA refuses to reinstate and Thero et al "retire " en mass ?
This was approved by the board .
Thero et al just didn't approve it on their own
If the FDA refuses to reinstate the SPA and the stock drops to 70c ..what do you figure Thero walks away with ?
The option grants IMHO are to prevent the current management jumping ship if the FDA refuses to re instate the SPA . Thero et al IMHO are oppotunists ...if the FDA does not reinstate , they will be looking for the door.
The option plan probably came from Lars Eckman ( current Chairman of the board ) trying to salvage Sofinnova Ventures investment.
Think where the stock price would be if the FDA refused to reinstate the SPA and then current mgt decided to " retire "
On smart people ....there have been some very smart people ( Cro , JL and Frenzy ) who have lost money on AMRN . Fortunately I'm not smart enough to be one of them . Recognize that this is a small cap biotech co with only 1 drug . Do not invest more then you can afford to lose.
On binary events ... Speedrunner and the Epadruginitiative group have made a very compelling case for why the SPA should be reinstated . This is now some what of a legal discussion. Do the trials cited by the FDA review committee provide a strong enough basis for rescinding the SPA . Since the FDA agreed to review the matter IMHO the decision is being reviewed higher up , particularly by their legal dept..
My take is 60/40 in favor of reinstating the SPA because I don't think the trials cited support rescinding the SPA.
This is a highly speculative situation ...repeat after me ...do not invest more then you can afford ...you know the rest
Frenzy ..appreciate your honest opinion BUT about the " from someone that lost everything ".
Please repeat after me ...DIVERSIFY DIVERSIFY DIVERSIFY ... anyone that "lost everything " on one stock should not be investing their own money ....thats my honest opinion .
I will guess that you are young enough to learn from this experience .....so in that , investing in AMRN has been a valuable experience for you.