PK ..How would you feel if he disclosed that he SOLD 50,000 share at 89c ?
I'm not trying to defend these guys but JT sold $5m in 2012 ?...capital gains tax maybe takes 20-33% of that ..so say he ends up with $3.5m from that sale ...He's in a high tax bracket so he may be paying a hefty tax bill on his yearly salary .
I'm not saying he is poor ... just don't consider him that wealthy ... dont think $45,000 is chump change to him
Joe Z buying $5,000 worth last yr was a joke .
$45,000 is still $45,000 for John Thero our CEO ...doubt if he wants to loose that ...he's not that wealthy as far as most CEO's of Nazdaq listed Co's go.
What you want to watch for is if Lars Echman ? the Chairman of the Board buys
Update tonight on Inactivating NPC1L1 Mutations that lower LDL that lower rate of heart attacks ....Ezetimbe lowers LDL by inhibiting NPC1L1 ...so Improve It Trial may show benefit after all ....and you all know how that helps ESPR
Cuzz thanks for the reply.
I thought the CC was mostly fine... focus on the business, drop the appeal ..market obviously disagrees . What I did not like was that they did not seem concerned with Epanova launching and the statement that DMC was blinded to efficacy data until interim.
So then it becomes ...how to fund RI until Interim and as I've discussed with Shortfish ..I don't see doing it on script sales.
So until the funding path to Interim is understood and accepted , this is the mess we get
Swalchie ...beyond me also Swalchie . Remember back in 2012 when Joe Z was selling his shares. Then RI could have been funded fairly easily but I guess our CEO at the time had other things on his mind ...like cashing out about $12m
Perhaps you could remind our current basher _anguish that I had sold my position prior to their announcing going alone because I did not believe the Co would be sold for "not a dollar under $30 " as JZ stated back then..
If a sale was about to happen ..why was he selling.?
Ucam ..The concerns over placebo being used have been addressed by Dr Ballantyne ( Anchor trial ) . Part of the effect was likely caused by there not being a long enough wash out phase prior to starting the Anchor trial . He doesnt expect it to be an issue in RI
Amarin_anguish ... For the record . I am not a surgeon but I am a patient . I have never advised anyone to" buy all you can " rather I have repeatedly warned that AMRN was a high risk speculative position ...do not invest more then you can loose.
The FDA has reversed their view on approving CV drugs based on lowering of risk markers ..now they want hard evidence of benefit for even the safest of drugs ..Vascepa..
I think they are wrong ..0 risk /probable benefit ...patients should have cheap affordable access to an Rx EPA ...Vascepa....while we await RI results.
But it is what it is ...since the CC your short position has been the right trading decision . The market does not believe in this management .
Shortfish ...funny ...now we just have to get from here to there :)
We need extensive and generous insurance coverage to come even close .
..yes saw your data on Stocktwits
I tend to agree with Elephant Analytic's and Outsized Analytics analysis on Seeking Alpha
I'd be interested in your opinion of how we make it from here to interim analysis without some dilution ?
Serious question ...not soft bashing
I dont mind if we disagree and I hope you are right.
Without doing a deep dive into the financials ...at current script growth I dont think you will generate enough income before 2016 , to offset the cash burn.
Well as we all know , you dont need very high TG's to get a script for Vascepa ...only an MD willing to write the script and an insurance co willing to cover .
Its easier for me to write a defense of Vascepa then it is to write a defense of AMRN the stock .
In the recent CC the Co was clear that the DMC is blinded to the efficacy data till interim analysis mid 2016 .
At current script growth , AMRN will exhaust their cash reserves before mid 2016 so they will need to try and partner with some one or try and raise funds before then .
They will need to also defend their patents and try and prevent AZN from launching Epanova.
If the FDA were to expand the label to include diabetics , it would make a huge difference but doubt if we can expect the FDA to act in patients interests, at least with regard to Vascepa .
How do you have so much time to write this ? OMG I've been accused of repeating myself ...get a grip , get a grip ...unless you are paid by the word to write this of course .
In brief Omegia Via EPA is less expensive then Plus Epa .
Vascepa is less expensive then both with good insurance coverage ..and higher quality
Amarin ..well its late so just a quick glance at your post
No one should be taking Niacin ....risks outweigh rewards
As regards to being a Shill ...Oct I was a soft basher , Nov I'm a shill ?..my story remains the same .
I believe EPA at 4 gms a day reduces CV risk for those most at risk .
I have never been much of a fan of Amarin Mgt ...especially Joe Z.
I also believe AMRN ( and patients ) was screwed by the FDA .
Vascepa should be approved for the Anchor Indication while we await the Reduce It results , solely on a 0 risk / probable reward basis
I really do not care if you buy AMRN stock or short it ...really I do not care
Actually that is an interesting question .." What do you imagine EPA can do to your damaged CV system "
In brief ..the answer ...reduce the risk of coronary artery plaque rupture
From a cardiac cath I know I have coronary arterial plaques ...like those in the Reduce It trial
I also know that 50% of those with my lipid disorders have CV events by aged 45 , that 85% will have a CV event by age 65 and that we are 20 times the risk of having a stroke .
That is hetero familia hypercholestolemia ...roughly anyone with LDL cholesterol over 180 is likely to have hetero FH ....so have a blood test , know your lipid numbers ...its roughly now about 1 in 350 in the US , as high as 1 in 100 in eastern Canada and parts of Europe.
Re Vascepa vs Omegia Via EPA
Vascepa is FDA regulated as a drug
Omegia Via is FDA regulated as a food ...know the difference
Vascepa with great insurance co pays can cost you less then $30 a month , Omegia Via EPA with tax and delivery is closer to $60 a month ...for 4gms daily .
Now if you dont have insurance coverage and cant afford Vascepa ...Omegia Via EPA is the best way to go ..but only at 3gms a day
Downdraft probably related to the Forbes article about the Improve It Trial data due on the 17th .
It relates to ESPR in the sense of LDL being accepted as a surrogate risk marker to approve drugs ,
If Zetia ( Ezetimbe ) used in the trial , fails to show benefit then its less likely that the FDA will approve ETC-1002 without an Outcome trial being at largely recruited and under way .
Zetia was approved solely on its ability to lower LDL cholesterol ...we wont know until the 17th whether this method of lowering LDL results in fewer CV events ( less heart attacks etc )
Outcome trials are expensive and time consuming ...ESPR would need to partner or raise funds
Cardiovascular Outcome trials have been stopped at Interim Data analysis in the past .
The Jupiter trial using the Statin Crestor is the prime example
AMRN is a small speculative position for me . I would not own the stock unless I thought the Reduce It trial could be stopped for efficacy at Interim . Frankly if its not stopped then I believe it will mean that Vascepa has little CV protective value.
Whether that makes me a shill or a soft basher I really dont care .
Just so you know ...Interim data is at least 16 months away ...967events April 2016 ?....maybe longer if the efficacy of Vascepa delays the event # trigger .
PK ..They are GIA ( unless a good offer appears ) , they are not going to fight the FDA and they are going to delay or avoid diluting for as long as possible.
Its a more focused approach
The next thing to watch is AZN's challenge to their patent
PK ....fighting the FDA is a waste of precious resources at this time .
They need to focus on building sales and conserving cash until we get to interim data analysis
That's what they are doing
The financial agreement with Pharmakon ( funds to launch Vascepa ) require that the drug ( Vascepa ) be commercialized .
If this can be done increasingly by KOWA , allowing Amarin to conserve cash ...all the better.
We are on the road to interim data release ...that is when the DMC will see unblinded data to determine efficacy
So it's how to get from here to there ( late 2016 ) without diluting, or some kind of capital raise / deal .
By not hiring more sales staff they conserve cash . They have $135m ...if they can keep there cash burn close to $15m a qt ...you can figure out how far that will last .
If KOWA can up sales in 2015 then the cash lasts longer
They aren't going to waste time and $ fighting the FDA . They will focus on getting to interim data read out and building the business as cost effectively as possible to then.
If you believe in the science and are patient ,you can buy here and wait.
I like it .
Stop fighting the FDA , focus on the business , growing sales , cutting expenses and aim for Interim data analysis when the DMC can review the efficacy data .
No new sales hires , possibly expand relationship with KOWA , limit cash burn ..and so on
Actually I think mgt is probably more upbeat about fighting off AZN then about scripts
This fight has moved to conference level when the judge usually says put up or shut up .
Doubt if AZN can delay any longer based on " we aren't launching yet so no harm done "
Recent displays at the Metabolic conference indicate they are ready to launch if their attorneys give the green light......strictly second hand info ...was not at conference