It was obvious they needed to either partner or raise funds for P3 or start an Outcome trial
Now we know , they plan on at least GIA for now
Thanks for the FYI on the shelf .
My read is that co is confident on having clinical trial hold lifted , ETC 1002 and Statin showing great results and are preparing to run P 3 trial on their own
Anyone with a different view ?
New lows ?
Please post an alert when we get there .
After all we have an Outcome Trial that should read out in 9-16 mths ....and if positive you know what will happen ...so if we hit a new low ..please post an alert
Generic Lovaza is Tier 1 .....of course managed care will cover it more ....now what does generic Lovaza do to LDL cholesterol and is that good or bad for the patient ?
The board wants to know ...please elaborate in detail
Eiretekk ......funny ...I'm waiting for your 25c PPS by year end ....that's what so great about emails and message boards . .....your predictions are recorded for posterity
Please keep posting
Hi Den ...happy holidays
For the benefit of discussion I'll throw in the following
I don't think there are any OTC fish oils in the US . OTC drugs I believe are FDA approved drugs that you can now buy Over The Counter ...Epadel in Japan is now OTC I believe.
What you are referring to are Dietary Supplements ....and I believe if you search early low dose trials you will find clinical studies ...just not Outcome trials ...and all the studies done at far lower doses ..say 1gm -2 gm epa/dha.
Dietary supplement EPA ( Plus EPA and Omegia Via EPA ) ...lower TG's ( and I assume other risk markers ) in a similar dose response levels . I have had lipid panels run ( blood tests ) after 3 mths on PlusEpa ( 2012 )
3 months on Omegai Via EPA ( late 2013 ) and Vascepa ( 2014 ) ...results are similar
So why do I take Vascepa instead of the DS alternatives ...quality /quantity /purity and cost of the EPA.
Vascepa is the gold standard , OmegiaVia EPA is a good alternative for those with no insurance coverage ,
But cost matters OmegiaVia EPA is about $60 a month .
Vascepa with great insurance and the company's coupon can be as low as $19 a month.
Vascepa with no insurance but using Amarins coupon costs me $151.72 a month
Doubt if anyone will buy Vascepa with no insurance coverage or coupon ..cost will be about $220 a month
Wow ...38K a week to breakeven ...lot higher then I guessed.
Good to read that they could probably make it to read out, with cash on hand, but I expect them to want to maintain 2qts of cash as a cushion .
Thanks for the DD
Whats you estimated number of total weekly scripts needed for Co to break even ?
You had mentioned that margins are expected to increase in 2015 so if RI reads out early 2016 , whats your estimate of the cash needed for the Co to make it till then ?
Thanks for responding ....shows a certain maturity . This is actually a good learning experience for you as painful as it may be .
I have learn't the most re investing over the past 40 yrs , when I suffered large loss's. It forces you to reassess
My lesson's are as follows .
1) Always stay diversified ....my largest position by far is the biotech ETF IBB , which I've held for several yrs
My newest ( but far smaller position ) is RSX with a 6 mth horizon ...I like to buy panic , sell parties .
2) Scale in and scale out of positions .
3) If a position drops 15% always take yourself out of at least half your position ( 10% may be to tight )
4) Every morning I look at my positions and ask " what could go wrong here , would I buy this again today "
5) Emotions rule ...when ever I see sentiment indicators like CNN's Fear and Greed index register extreme greed I sell part of my positions ...when ever I see extreme fear ( recent Ebola scare ) I force myself to buy
6) Understand that CEO's are often cheerleaders , so take whatever they say with a cup of salt .
Best of luck ..small cap biotech is very risky no matter how good the story may sound ...diversify
Thanks for sharing
Can you share lessons learned ...if any ?
For instance ...why didn't you set yourself a stop loss at say 15% below your purchase price ...to take you out of your position and give you time to reassess .....This is one of my cardinal rules in investing ....always preserve capital
Second , if you knew Joe Z was selling such as large chunk ...why did you buy . Mgt selling for other then thru pre arranged sale agreements , is a warning sign for any stock.
There were multiple times to get out of this stock ...failure to find buyer and GIA Dec 12 , Adcom decision Oct 13 , Appeal denied Mid 14.......etc all at higher prices then today.
I am not meaning to be critical . You have obviously suffered a loss . I would like to know what you have learned from this to prevent you and others making the same mistake again.
I remain a buyer at any price under $1
I see it as a low cost speculative bet on RI being stopped at interim or before
Good luck with your future investments
misleading longs are almost as bad as misleading shorts ...but at least they aren't as obnoxious.
"few more thousand scripts and co could become profitable :...!!! yeah , like about 14,000 scripts per week ..
If weekly scripts grow by 3% a week ...how many weeks until we reach 24,000 scripts per wk ?
Well I'll let you do the math.....but roughly around 34 wks IF we maintain 3% growth per week .
Now figure cash burn ...so an interesting convergence ....as we run out of $ , we get very close to break even ( with 3% script growth ) at about the earliest time we may see RI interim data.
Oh the joy of investing in small cap bio's ..to wake up and find your position is down 25% because of the lock up expiring.
I guess its wait time to see if an SEC disclosure materializes
Its an event driven Outcome Trial , so pretty hard to move the goal posts .
Don't expect the trial to be halted at interim if efficacy is less then 20%.
If its not halted at interim , I'll be gone .
If the trial runs the full length and only show 15% benefit , then I expect those results will be challenged solely on the basis of the paraffin oil used as the placebo.
PK your post is an example of recency bias ... you can not make a decision on buying or selling AMRN today , based on what JZ did or did not do in 2012.
Look a current valuation , look at potential catalysts ( expanded label , early interim data ) ..look at short term risks ( push back on Tier 2 coverage , risk of dilution to raise funds to reach interim ) etc and then make a decision ...what say yea
Jan -Feb 2016 ...sounds good to me . I predict later tho as suspect they will run it 1 qt more then they need to as they know they will be criticized for being under powered.
Yes JELIS used 1.8gms of Epadel ( almost identical to Vascepa ) but the patients were on a high fish diet , so both groups had higher O 3 blood serum levels then what we see in a US population
Re blocked /deleted messages . Wonder if the shorts are flagging your posts as abusive on YMB , ..thus preventing the new posts from posting .
Happens to me some times ...
Don't worry ..I saved your post where you said you were buying drinks in Vegas ( TG levels be dammed ) if RI is stopped on your projected date. : )
Suggest you don't risk more then you can afford to lose ..many have been hurt in this stock ( thanks to the FDA Adcom )
Vascepa_flop ...no I've recently been buying AMRN
Anything around $1, I view as a cheap spec on Reduce It being stopped for efficacy either before or at Interim.
Consensus seems to be late 2015 -early 2016 .
My only concern is funding until then