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MBIA Inc. Message Board

akanz2 235 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 24, 2014 12:06 AM Member since: Feb 12, 2012
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  • Reply to

    AMRN BUYOUT by Year End 2014 - Christmas Gift! $12

    by rkartik777 Dec 23, 2014 11:48 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 24, 2014 12:06 AM Flag

    rk ....put down the bong ...please ....at least don't try and drive at the same time
    AK

  • Reply to

    200 mill shelf offering

    by sellercar Dec 23, 2014 12:07 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 24, 2014 12:03 AM Flag

    Sellercar
    It was obvious they needed to either partner or raise funds for P3 or start an Outcome trial
    Now we know , they plan on at least GIA for now
    AK

  • Reply to

    Even now the market cap is only 500 mill??

    by nboy1415 Dec 19, 2014 10:58 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 23, 2014 11:58 PM Flag

    Mrluka
    Thanks for the FYI on the shelf .
    My read is that co is confident on having clinical trial hold lifted , ETC 1002 and Statin showing great results and are preparing to run P 3 trial on their own
    Anyone with a different view ?
    AK

  • Reply to

    Are We to Expect a Strong Week from AMRN?

    by annamseaglass Dec 22, 2014 10:06 AM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 23, 2014 9:42 PM Flag

    Alertman
    New lows ?
    Please post an alert when we get there .
    After all we have an Outcome Trial that should read out in 9-16 mths ....and if positive you know what will happen ...so if we hit a new low ..please post an alert
    AK

  • Reply to

    10/17/14 SCRIPTS

    by keystone.investments Oct 24, 2014 8:28 AM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 23, 2014 9:37 PM Flag

    Nofan
    Generic Lovaza is Tier 1 .....of course managed care will cover it more ....now what does generic Lovaza do to LDL cholesterol and is that good or bad for the patient ?
    The board wants to know ...please elaborate in detail
    AK

  • akanz2 akanz2 Dec 23, 2014 9:32 PM Flag

    Eiretekk ......funny ...I'm waiting for your 25c PPS by year end ....that's what so great about emails and message boards . .....your predictions are recorded for posterity
    Please keep posting
    AK

  • Reply to

    Outcomes

    by dendreonpro Dec 21, 2014 9:46 AM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 21, 2014 3:38 PM Flag

    Hi Den ...happy holidays
    For the benefit of discussion I'll throw in the following
    I don't think there are any OTC fish oils in the US . OTC drugs I believe are FDA approved drugs that you can now buy Over The Counter ...Epadel in Japan is now OTC I believe.

    What you are referring to are Dietary Supplements ....and I believe if you search early low dose trials you will find clinical studies ...just not Outcome trials ...and all the studies done at far lower doses ..say 1gm -2 gm epa/dha.

    Dietary supplement EPA ( Plus EPA and Omegia Via EPA ) ...lower TG's ( and I assume other risk markers ) in a similar dose response levels . I have had lipid panels run ( blood tests ) after 3 mths on PlusEpa ( 2012 )
    3 months on Omegai Via EPA ( late 2013 ) and Vascepa ( 2014 ) ...results are similar

    So why do I take Vascepa instead of the DS alternatives ...quality /quantity /purity and cost of the EPA.
    Vascepa is the gold standard , OmegiaVia EPA is a good alternative for those with no insurance coverage ,

    But cost matters OmegiaVia EPA is about $60 a month .
    Vascepa with great insurance and the company's coupon can be as low as $19 a month.
    Vascepa with no insurance but using Amarins coupon costs me $151.72 a month
    Doubt if anyone will buy Vascepa with no insurance coverage or coupon ..cost will be about $220 a month
    AK

  • Reply to

    Unconfirmed new Scripts

    by g550drvr Dec 19, 2014 7:32 AM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 20, 2014 3:42 PM Flag

    Thanks
    Wow ...38K a week to breakeven ...lot higher then I guessed.
    Good to read that they could probably make it to read out, with cash on hand, but I expect them to want to maintain 2qts of cash as a cushion .
    Thanks for the DD
    AK

  • Reply to

    Unconfirmed new Scripts

    by g550drvr Dec 19, 2014 7:32 AM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 20, 2014 2:25 PM Flag

    hdgabor
    Whats you estimated number of total weekly scripts needed for Co to break even ?
    You had mentioned that margins are expected to increase in 2015 so if RI reads out early 2016 , whats your estimate of the cash needed for the Co to make it till then ?
    Thanks
    AK

  • Reply to

    After holding this for 2.5 years finally sold it

    by maheyb30 Dec 18, 2014 2:09 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 19, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    Hi Mahey
    Thanks for responding ....shows a certain maturity . This is actually a good learning experience for you as painful as it may be .
    I have learn't the most re investing over the past 40 yrs , when I suffered large loss's. It forces you to reassess
    My lesson's are as follows .
    1) Always stay diversified ....my largest position by far is the biotech ETF IBB , which I've held for several yrs
    My newest ( but far smaller position ) is RSX with a 6 mth horizon ...I like to buy panic , sell parties .
    2) Scale in and scale out of positions .
    3) If a position drops 15% always take yourself out of at least half your position ( 10% may be to tight )
    4) Every morning I look at my positions and ask " what could go wrong here , would I buy this again today "
    5) Emotions rule ...when ever I see sentiment indicators like CNN's Fear and Greed index register extreme greed I sell part of my positions ...when ever I see extreme fear ( recent Ebola scare ) I force myself to buy
    6) Understand that CEO's are often cheerleaders , so take whatever they say with a cup of salt .

    Best of luck ..small cap biotech is very risky no matter how good the story may sound ...diversify
    AK

  • Reply to

    After holding this for 2.5 years finally sold it

    by maheyb30 Dec 18, 2014 2:09 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 18, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    Mahey
    Thanks for sharing
    Can you share lessons learned ...if any ?
    For instance ...why didn't you set yourself a stop loss at say 15% below your purchase price ...to take you out of your position and give you time to reassess .....This is one of my cardinal rules in investing ....always preserve capital
    Second , if you knew Joe Z was selling such as large chunk ...why did you buy . Mgt selling for other then thru pre arranged sale agreements , is a warning sign for any stock.

    There were multiple times to get out of this stock ...failure to find buyer and GIA Dec 12 , Adcom decision Oct 13 , Appeal denied Mid 14.......etc all at higher prices then today.

    I am not meaning to be critical . You have obviously suffered a loss . I would like to know what you have learned from this to prevent you and others making the same mistake again.
    I remain a buyer at any price under $1
    I see it as a low cost speculative bet on RI being stopped at interim or before
    Good luck with your future investments
    AK

  • akanz2 akanz2 Dec 16, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    Richard
    misleading longs are almost as bad as misleading shorts ...but at least they aren't as obnoxious.
    "few more thousand scripts and co could become profitable :...!!! yeah , like about 14,000 scripts per week ..
    If weekly scripts grow by 3% a week ...how many weeks until we reach 24,000 scripts per wk ?
    Well I'll let you do the math.....but roughly around 34 wks IF we maintain 3% growth per week .
    Now figure cash burn ...so an interesting convergence ....as we run out of $ , we get very close to break even ( with 3% script growth ) at about the earliest time we may see RI interim data.
    AK

  • Oh the joy of investing in small cap bio's ..to wake up and find your position is down 25% because of the lock up expiring.
    I guess its wait time to see if an SEC disclosure materializes
    AK

  • Reply to

    Reduce It Trial bets

    by akanz2 Dec 13, 2014 1:06 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 15, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    Hi Cuzz
    Its an event driven Outcome Trial , so pretty hard to move the goal posts .
    Don't expect the trial to be halted at interim if efficacy is less then 20%.
    If its not halted at interim , I'll be gone .
    If the trial runs the full length and only show 15% benefit , then I expect those results will be challenged solely on the basis of the paraffin oil used as the placebo.
    AK

  • Reply to

    Another day in AMRN paradise

    by pkarnett83 Dec 15, 2014 10:44 AM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 15, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    PK your post is an example of recency bias ... you can not make a decision on buying or selling AMRN today , based on what JZ did or did not do in 2012.
    Look a current valuation , look at potential catalysts ( expanded label , early interim data ) ..look at short term risks ( push back on Tier 2 coverage , risk of dilution to raise funds to reach interim ) etc and then make a decision ...what say yea
    AK

  • Reply to

    Reduce It Trial bets

    by akanz2 Dec 13, 2014 1:06 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 15, 2014 10:28 AM Flag

    Jan -Feb 2016 ...sounds good to me . I predict later tho as suspect they will run it 1 qt more then they need to as they know they will be criticized for being under powered.
    JMO
    AK

  • Reply to

    identical to Vascepa?

    by uncle_edscharper Dec 15, 2014 8:42 AM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 15, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    Vascepa is DEVOID of DHA
    Epadel contains 2 % DHA ...read the patents
    AK

  • Reply to

    Reduce It Trial bets

    by akanz2 Dec 13, 2014 1:06 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 14, 2014 9:34 PM Flag

    Hi Den
    Yes JELIS used 1.8gms of Epadel ( almost identical to Vascepa ) but the patients were on a high fish diet , so both groups had higher O 3 blood serum levels then what we see in a US population

    Re blocked /deleted messages . Wonder if the shorts are flagging your posts as abusive on YMB , ..thus preventing the new posts from posting .
    Happens to me some times ...
    Don't worry ..I saved your post where you said you were buying drinks in Vegas ( TG levels be dammed ) if RI is stopped on your projected date. : )
    Suggest you don't risk more then you can afford to lose ..many have been hurt in this stock ( thanks to the FDA Adcom )

    AK

  • Reply to

    Reduce It Trial bets

    by akanz2 Dec 13, 2014 1:06 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Dec 14, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    Vascepa_flop ...no I've recently been buying AMRN
    Anything around $1, I view as a cheap spec on Reduce It being stopped for efficacy either before or at Interim.
    Consensus seems to be late 2015 -early 2016 .
    My only concern is funding until then
    JMO
    AK

  • akanz2 akanz2 Dec 14, 2014 4:48 PM Flag

    car90
    any morning for coffee ..The Depot /plaza Mill Valley Ca ....but you have to buy
    AK

MBI
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