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Trius Therapeutics, Inc. (TSRX) Message Board

akanz2 108 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Feb 12, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Current State Of AMRN

    by dendreonpro Sep 19, 2014 12:37 PM

    Cy
    Out of town tonight so don't have access to my notes
    From memory
    Last qt they had an operating loss of about $25m

    Suggest you read the details of their qtly financial reports .
    When you read the ratings from say Goldman ...Goldman rates it as a hold ...which I read as sold.

    I think your revenue numbers are wildly optimistic but wish you luck anyway .
    AK

  • Reply to

    Number crunching again

    by shortfishfry Sep 18, 2014 12:42 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Sep 19, 2014 11:25 PM Flag

    Smart move Shortfish ...this is small cap biotech ....do not invest more then you can afford to loose
    Please pass that on :)

    What was Steve R 's claim recently when the stock was close to 2 , before the FDA decision ...claiming he had $1million in AMRN ...at today's close that's now worth...?
    Well I'll let you do the number crunching on that :) ...sorry , couldn't resist .
    What ever you decide ...hope it works out
    AK

  • Reply to

    Number crunching again

    by shortfishfry Sep 18, 2014 12:42 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Sep 19, 2014 11:04 PM Flag

    Shortfish

    Well certainly do not want to be fear mongering .
    Turning out the lights is tongue in cheek

    But if you really think they may dilute in 3rd qt 2015 ...Why buy now.?
    Why not wait to see if scripts do pick up .
    My concern is that I don't see scripts picking up until I see some a sign from the FDA that Vascepa may have some cardiovascular benefit .....Right now their attitude ( the FDA ) towards Amarin is ..get lost
    AK

  • Reply to

    Number crunching again

    by shortfishfry Sep 18, 2014 12:42 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Sep 19, 2014 10:44 PM Flag

    Hi Shortfish
    Ok ..we'll move you to the front of the line for turning out the lights. :) ...I'm sure Steve R will be disappointed .

    You need to look at cash burn ...you keep looking at revenue
    The company is running at a loss each qt ...despite the revenue

    As regards to institutions / brokerages / models etc ....name one that predicted today's stock price in 3rd Qt 2014
    As an ex CEO ...the company I started is still running ...but I'v seen a lot close their doors on Friday and never open on Monday

    Just my jaded pt of view
    AK

  • Reply to

    Number crunching again

    by shortfishfry Sep 18, 2014 12:42 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Sep 19, 2014 10:31 PM Flag

    Aerytox
    Correct
    Generic Lovaza dominates the pancreatitis ( very high TG ) market
    Vascepas potential is the CV market ...but if the FDA doesn't bend and allow wider prescriptions ...?
    AK

  • Reply to

    Omegavia and other OTC Omega-3's

    by shortfishfry Sep 16, 2014 2:09 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Sep 19, 2014 10:26 PM Flag

    JW....so long winded
    Most of those I know on Vascepa are using it off label and are covered by their insurance ...especially if they are present or retired govt employees
    OmegiaVia EPA costs about $2.20 per day for 4 gm dose
    Vascepa's coupon ends Dec 2015

    Your problem is that you have a good product for those with no insurance coverage ....you just don't know how to promote it
    AK

  • Reply to

    Number crunching again

    by shortfishfry Sep 18, 2014 12:42 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Sep 19, 2014 9:07 PM Flag

    Shortfish

    I agree that we will be almost out of $ early 2016......which is interim analysis NOT when RI ends
    So if the DMC says no problem ...keep going ...as opposed to , great news we are stopping the trial for efficacy ...you are out of $ and I doubt if many are still interested .

    So ...for nominations to turn out the lights. ( gallows humor ) ...we have Steve R , Harvey ...can we add you to the list ?
    AK

  • Reply to

    Current State Of AMRN

    by dendreonpro Sep 19, 2014 12:37 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Sep 19, 2014 8:33 PM Flag

    Jw
    Well I see you have been with us from ....Sept 19th .....is that right ...Sept19th with 2 posts
    The problem with the DS business ...is well ...guys like you
    AK

  • Reply to

    Omegavia and other OTC Omega-3's

    by shortfishfry Sep 16, 2014 2:09 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Sep 19, 2014 8:29 PM Flag

    Jw....to point out the painfully obvious .....those with great insurance co pays and using Amarins coupon ...can get Vascepa ...an FDA approved and regulated drug for .....$9 a month

    And your OmegiaVia EPA ....regulated as a food ...costs how much for 4gms of EPA a day for a month ?

    Listen ...I'm all for OmegiaVia Via EPA as an alternative for those with no insurance coverage ...but you really undermine your credibility when you present only half the facts
    Clean up your act

    AK

  • Reply to

    Current State Of AMRN

    by dendreonpro Sep 19, 2014 12:37 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Sep 19, 2014 8:14 PM Flag

    Swalchie

    Let me say ...You were right ...and I was wrong .
    I believed ( and contributed time , $ and effort. ) as part of the EPA drug group ...to try and persuade the FDA that the trials they cited to decline expanded approval at Adcom ...were unjustified.

    I still believe Vascepa should be more widely prescribed ....but I try to be realistic
    We fought the FDA and the FDA won
    This company will not make it on the Marine indication alone
    JMO

    Who should we nominate to turn off the lights ?
    Steve what's his name , Harvey ??
    AK

  • Reply to

    Current State Of AMRN

    by dendreonpro Sep 19, 2014 12:37 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Sep 19, 2014 7:52 PM Flag

    Pg
    We are currently at about a total of 9k a week correct ?
    HDGator on Ihub figures over 40k a week to break even ...total scripts weekly ........understand that this is based on 30 day refills ...so the total number of people taking Vascepa now is about 36,000 each month.
    That needs to increase to about 160,000 patients renewing their subscriptions monthly ......understanding these are monthly refills
    There are about 4 million people with TG's over 500 in the US ....and despite being on the market for over 18 months only 36,000 are actually using Vascepa ( of which I am one ) each month

    If my numbers are wrong ...please correct
    AK

  • Reply to

    Current State Of AMRN

    by dendreonpro Sep 19, 2014 12:37 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Sep 19, 2014 7:27 PM Flag

    Den
    What you need to look at is the cash burn going forward . At their current burn rate they will be out of $ by early 2016 ...about the time of interim analysis .
    It is not certain Amarin will have access to that data in enough detail to determine if V plus Statin is 20% more effective then Statin alone ....15% more effective is likely to be a big yawn .

    In the mean time the remaining super bulls ( of which I am NOT one ) expect an early halt to Reduce It because the event lines will diverge by 25% or more....before interim ...and thus save the day .

    Others expect a legal challenge against the FDA suggesting legions of attorneys lining up to take the case on contingency . I am not an attorney , and if one is present perhaps they can offer their view ....but it's my understanding that the SPA is legally an agreement NOT a contract ...so good luck with that....and know the difference between the two.

    So Den ...how does the company survive until early 2016 ..to even get a chance at a look at detailed event line data ..we need scripts to be at about 40,000 a week to break even from what I have read and I don't see that happening any time soon
    JMO

    Ak

  • Reply to

    Akanz2's daily diet - - -

    by jj5rye Sep 7, 2014 10:14 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Sep 10, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    Youthink
    How could you verify my diet without trailing me for a week ? Ugh ... the thought of that.
    If it bothers you so much ...identify and pay for a Notary Public in the SF / Bay Area and they are welcome to inspect whats in my frig any day they choose.

    Diet is only one factor in heart disease....whether you smoke a pack a day or not , is probably a bigger risk .... unless you live at Mickey D's
    AK

  • akanz2 akanz2 Sep 10, 2014 11:38 AM Flag

    180052
    There is ample evidence that LDL levels are correlated with risk of a Cardio Vascular event . That doesn't mean that everyone with high LDL will experience an event. It is one of multiple risk factors

    You might read the Jupiter trial which showed that high hsCRP ( inflammation ) was just as important , if not more then LDL levels , in predicting risk . LDL particle numbers , Non HDL etc are other measures of risk.

    Re Lovaza . Lovaza is more effective then Vascepa in lowering triglycerides ..especially very high TG's for those at risk of pancreatitis.
    Vascepa , I believe, is more cardio protective then Lovaza because it improves the EPA/AA blood serum ratio , strengthens the caps around arterial plaque making them less likely to rupture, and does not raise LDL cholesterol .

    Since you appear new to AMRN ( 2 posts ) ...be aware that small cap biotech is risky . Do not bet more then you can afford to lose whether you are long or short .
    AK

  • akanz2 akanz2 Sep 9, 2014 11:18 PM Flag

    Just thought I would repost this as I believe it relates to the discussion taking place within DrJenkins council at the FDA
    AK

  • Reply to

    Picked Up 2,000 Shares AH @ $1.98

    by dendreonpro Sep 9, 2014 8:41 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Sep 9, 2014 10:05 PM Flag

    Den ...$300-$400 for weekend beer money !!! ..slow down my friend , slow down ...or at least invite us over :)
    AK

  • Reply to

    Amarin ripe for the picking......

    by wilsonwagwa Sep 9, 2014 8:10 PM
    akanz2 akanz2 Sep 9, 2014 10:00 PM Flag

    Atipfrom

    You fail to mention the sub group in JELIS with low HDL / high TG ratio and the 53% reduction in events
    You also failed to analyze the section of the JELIS trial that most closely resembles Amarins Reduce It trial ...but why let these facts get in the way of your superficial analysis.

    Lowering triglycerides is but one of several things that highly purified EPA ( Vascepa ) will do ...do you know what else it does .
    Let me start you off ...Lovaza lower triglycerides also ...but ...lets see you fill in the rest .

    Regarding mineral oil as placebo . Its actually Lt purified paraffin oil and the different was explained by Dr Ballantyne in his letter to the New England Journal of Med which I assume you are familiar with.

    You are correct in that no other drug , when added to Statins has reduced Cardio Vascular events to date ...so if Amarins Vascepa does that ...the value of the company is what ???

    AK

  • Reply to

    AMRN valuation worst and best case scenario

    by staccani Sep 8, 2014 11:32 AM
    akanz2 akanz2 Sep 8, 2014 1:48 PM Flag

    Staccani
    Re Reduce It
    No drug ,when added to Statins, has been proven to further reduce CV events in a US population .
    ( there may be some exceptions to this in some sub groups using certain Fibrates )
    We are 1 -2 yrs away from knowing if Vascepa will be the first drug , that can be used with almost 0 side effects ...to reduce CV events . There is no way this trial will be stopped.

    If Amarin needs to conserve cash they will lay off all their sales staff at the end of this year and run all sales thru KOWA. They can also partner with some one to complete Reduce it

    I expect interim data analysis ( on 967 events if I recall ) sometime between Oct 2015 and April 2016 .
    They will definitely run Reduce it till then .
    JMO
    If we get an expanded label ...no problem completing RI
    They doubt they will ever turn a "nice profit " as you say on the Marine indication ...IMHO its go big or go bust
    AK

  • akanz2 akanz2 Sep 8, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    Liver ...this is your second post on this board ...and its going down hill.

    I assume you are trying to sell dietary supplements . Your posts tell us more about the kind of person trying to sell the product...... then the product itself.

    Just look at cost to patient . Many with great insurance coverage ( especially Federal employees ) and using Amarins coupon ...get a 30 day supply of Vascepa for as low as $19 a month.

    Why would they even bother with OmegiaVia EPA or PlusEpa ?

    As I have written before ... IMHO OmegiaVia EPA provides a lower quality / lower cost alternative for those with no insurance coverage ....but with people like you trying to sell it...maybe we should all just stay away from it.
    AK

  • Reply to

    AMRN valuation worst and best case scenario

    by staccani Sep 8, 2014 11:32 AM
    akanz2 akanz2 Sep 8, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    Staccani
    Quick thought
    1) Anchor not reinstated , label not expanded ..Reduce IT will NOT be stopped
    Company bleeds cash , partners with some one to fund completion of Reduce It.
    If Reduce it fails ...company is bankrupt. If Reduce it shows benefit ...company likely sold to big Pharma who will mount an aggressive marketing campaign
    2) Anchor SPA ..reinstated
    We all throw a huge party , congratulate each other on how smart we are ...company does well but not huge unless there is wide spread and generous insurance coverage making Vascepa affordable for all
    AK

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