Out of town tonight so don't have access to my notes
Last qt they had an operating loss of about $25m
Suggest you read the details of their qtly financial reports .
When you read the ratings from say Goldman ...Goldman rates it as a hold ...which I read as sold.
I think your revenue numbers are wildly optimistic but wish you luck anyway .
Smart move Shortfish ...this is small cap biotech ....do not invest more then you can afford to loose
Please pass that on :)
What was Steve R 's claim recently when the stock was close to 2 , before the FDA decision ...claiming he had $1million in AMRN ...at today's close that's now worth...?
Well I'll let you do the number crunching on that :) ...sorry , couldn't resist .
What ever you decide ...hope it works out
Well certainly do not want to be fear mongering .
Turning out the lights is tongue in cheek
But if you really think they may dilute in 3rd qt 2015 ...Why buy now.?
Why not wait to see if scripts do pick up .
My concern is that I don't see scripts picking up until I see some a sign from the FDA that Vascepa may have some cardiovascular benefit .....Right now their attitude ( the FDA ) towards Amarin is ..get lost
Ok ..we'll move you to the front of the line for turning out the lights. :) ...I'm sure Steve R will be disappointed .
You need to look at cash burn ...you keep looking at revenue
The company is running at a loss each qt ...despite the revenue
As regards to institutions / brokerages / models etc ....name one that predicted today's stock price in 3rd Qt 2014
As an ex CEO ...the company I started is still running ...but I'v seen a lot close their doors on Friday and never open on Monday
Just my jaded pt of view
Generic Lovaza dominates the pancreatitis ( very high TG ) market
Vascepas potential is the CV market ...but if the FDA doesn't bend and allow wider prescriptions ...?
JW....so long winded
Most of those I know on Vascepa are using it off label and are covered by their insurance ...especially if they are present or retired govt employees
OmegiaVia EPA costs about $2.20 per day for 4 gm dose
Vascepa's coupon ends Dec 2015
Your problem is that you have a good product for those with no insurance coverage ....you just don't know how to promote it
I agree that we will be almost out of $ early 2016......which is interim analysis NOT when RI ends
So if the DMC says no problem ...keep going ...as opposed to , great news we are stopping the trial for efficacy ...you are out of $ and I doubt if many are still interested .
So ...for nominations to turn out the lights. ( gallows humor ) ...we have Steve R , Harvey ...can we add you to the list ?
Well I see you have been with us from ....Sept 19th .....is that right ...Sept19th with 2 posts
The problem with the DS business ...is well ...guys like you
Jw....to point out the painfully obvious .....those with great insurance co pays and using Amarins coupon ...can get Vascepa ...an FDA approved and regulated drug for .....$9 a month
And your OmegiaVia EPA ....regulated as a food ...costs how much for 4gms of EPA a day for a month ?
Listen ...I'm all for OmegiaVia Via EPA as an alternative for those with no insurance coverage ...but you really undermine your credibility when you present only half the facts
Clean up your act
Let me say ...You were right ...and I was wrong .
I believed ( and contributed time , $ and effort. ) as part of the EPA drug group ...to try and persuade the FDA that the trials they cited to decline expanded approval at Adcom ...were unjustified.
I still believe Vascepa should be more widely prescribed ....but I try to be realistic
We fought the FDA and the FDA won
This company will not make it on the Marine indication alone
Who should we nominate to turn off the lights ?
Steve what's his name , Harvey ??
We are currently at about a total of 9k a week correct ?
HDGator on Ihub figures over 40k a week to break even ...total scripts weekly ........understand that this is based on 30 day refills ...so the total number of people taking Vascepa now is about 36,000 each month.
That needs to increase to about 160,000 patients renewing their subscriptions monthly ......understanding these are monthly refills
There are about 4 million people with TG's over 500 in the US ....and despite being on the market for over 18 months only 36,000 are actually using Vascepa ( of which I am one ) each month
If my numbers are wrong ...please correct
What you need to look at is the cash burn going forward . At their current burn rate they will be out of $ by early 2016 ...about the time of interim analysis .
It is not certain Amarin will have access to that data in enough detail to determine if V plus Statin is 20% more effective then Statin alone ....15% more effective is likely to be a big yawn .
In the mean time the remaining super bulls ( of which I am NOT one ) expect an early halt to Reduce It because the event lines will diverge by 25% or more....before interim ...and thus save the day .
Others expect a legal challenge against the FDA suggesting legions of attorneys lining up to take the case on contingency . I am not an attorney , and if one is present perhaps they can offer their view ....but it's my understanding that the SPA is legally an agreement NOT a contract ...so good luck with that....and know the difference between the two.
So Den ...how does the company survive until early 2016 ..to even get a chance at a look at detailed event line data ..we need scripts to be at about 40,000 a week to break even from what I have read and I don't see that happening any time soon
How could you verify my diet without trailing me for a week ? Ugh ... the thought of that.
If it bothers you so much ...identify and pay for a Notary Public in the SF / Bay Area and they are welcome to inspect whats in my frig any day they choose.
Diet is only one factor in heart disease....whether you smoke a pack a day or not , is probably a bigger risk .... unless you live at Mickey D's
There is ample evidence that LDL levels are correlated with risk of a Cardio Vascular event . That doesn't mean that everyone with high LDL will experience an event. It is one of multiple risk factors
You might read the Jupiter trial which showed that high hsCRP ( inflammation ) was just as important , if not more then LDL levels , in predicting risk . LDL particle numbers , Non HDL etc are other measures of risk.
Re Lovaza . Lovaza is more effective then Vascepa in lowering triglycerides ..especially very high TG's for those at risk of pancreatitis.
Vascepa , I believe, is more cardio protective then Lovaza because it improves the EPA/AA blood serum ratio , strengthens the caps around arterial plaque making them less likely to rupture, and does not raise LDL cholesterol .
Since you appear new to AMRN ( 2 posts ) ...be aware that small cap biotech is risky . Do not bet more then you can afford to lose whether you are long or short .
Just thought I would repost this as I believe it relates to the discussion taking place within DrJenkins council at the FDA
You fail to mention the sub group in JELIS with low HDL / high TG ratio and the 53% reduction in events
You also failed to analyze the section of the JELIS trial that most closely resembles Amarins Reduce It trial ...but why let these facts get in the way of your superficial analysis.
Lowering triglycerides is but one of several things that highly purified EPA ( Vascepa ) will do ...do you know what else it does .
Let me start you off ...Lovaza lower triglycerides also ...but ...lets see you fill in the rest .
Regarding mineral oil as placebo . Its actually Lt purified paraffin oil and the different was explained by Dr Ballantyne in his letter to the New England Journal of Med which I assume you are familiar with.
You are correct in that no other drug , when added to Statins has reduced Cardio Vascular events to date ...so if Amarins Vascepa does that ...the value of the company is what ???
Re Reduce It
No drug ,when added to Statins, has been proven to further reduce CV events in a US population .
( there may be some exceptions to this in some sub groups using certain Fibrates )
We are 1 -2 yrs away from knowing if Vascepa will be the first drug , that can be used with almost 0 side effects ...to reduce CV events . There is no way this trial will be stopped.
If Amarin needs to conserve cash they will lay off all their sales staff at the end of this year and run all sales thru KOWA. They can also partner with some one to complete Reduce it
I expect interim data analysis ( on 967 events if I recall ) sometime between Oct 2015 and April 2016 .
They will definitely run Reduce it till then .
If we get an expanded label ...no problem completing RI
They doubt they will ever turn a "nice profit " as you say on the Marine indication ...IMHO its go big or go bust
Liver ...this is your second post on this board ...and its going down hill.
I assume you are trying to sell dietary supplements . Your posts tell us more about the kind of person trying to sell the product...... then the product itself.
Just look at cost to patient . Many with great insurance coverage ( especially Federal employees ) and using Amarins coupon ...get a 30 day supply of Vascepa for as low as $19 a month.
Why would they even bother with OmegiaVia EPA or PlusEpa ?
As I have written before ... IMHO OmegiaVia EPA provides a lower quality / lower cost alternative for those with no insurance coverage ....but with people like you trying to sell it...maybe we should all just stay away from it.
1) Anchor not reinstated , label not expanded ..Reduce IT will NOT be stopped
Company bleeds cash , partners with some one to fund completion of Reduce It.
If Reduce it fails ...company is bankrupt. If Reduce it shows benefit ...company likely sold to big Pharma who will mount an aggressive marketing campaign
2) Anchor SPA ..reinstated
We all throw a huge party , congratulate each other on how smart we are ...company does well but not huge unless there is wide spread and generous insurance coverage making Vascepa affordable for all