What's interesting here is that 1.Saud's are facing a decline in oil reserves 2. Domestic spending is skyrocketing and 3. They instead of the USA suddenly have to finance military action in Yemen...and the dumb bunnies are driving the price of oil down? At the Saudi production rate of ten million barrels/day think of penalizing your treasury of $500 MILLION PER DAY. Or $15 BILLION//month...incredible.....Waaay past time for a Saudi production cut.
A good start, but is kind of a mini-plant compared to Shell etc which require like 50,000 barrels/day of ethane and $5Billion or so...the good news are that infrastructure requirements are a lot smaller and construction times are several years less...I note that Gov Kasich of Ohio is moving towards entering the Prez race partially on energy job creation in Ohio..were e to win, Keystone approval is a lock!
Fun to note Jim Cramer of "Mad Money" pumping MWE,MMP,and EPD...that all three have no IDRs going to GPs, are solid performers, and are well positioned for any energy turnaround may help them avoid the Cramer cratering after pumping..We'll see! (Disclaimer: I have sizeable positions in all three..and I agree with Nymarv that MWE,MMP,and Targa are M&A candidates..and I have positions in Targa LP and Targa GP,too).
I agree with you. This is IMO one of several signals that the GC natural gas liquids line will not be built anytime soon...other signals are 1) MWE building the third 60,000! B/d fractionator 2) Targa buying APL...recall that Targa was lined up to do the GC fractionation..the APL acquisition means Targa doesn't need Marcellus/Utica liquids 3) SXL talking PDH plant at MARCUS Hook..Marcus Hook 800 acre refinery site...plenty of space...EPD opening PDH plant at Mont Belvieu in the next year 4) DPM starting to ship Butane from Hampton Rds..supplied from MWE.and 5) you think Hillary is going to block Keystone.? Let us laugh! Kinder shipping natural gas North to get ready.....
Today's announcement by MMP and Trans Canada covering a nine mile JV pipeline link between Trans Canada's Houston crude tank farm and the MMP crude distribution network in the Houston area is another score from the BP assets picked up by MMP...this link brings in the Cushing/Houston Keystone Pipeline connection shipments to Houston area refineries. It also means that crude shipments on MMP's Saddlehorn Pipeline under construction will be able to flow from Colorado to Cushing to Houston for distribution...a beautiful,organic, "Ka-Ching" ,toll booth contribution to us unit holders....Cool!
Had to smile about EPD buying our OilT,Nymarv...once the acquisition closed EPD imposed a "dockage fee" of $1/barrel on all of OILT customers including BP...the rationale given that "all services must be paid for"....pzzzzed off #$%$ cats are howling! Thanks for comments!
As we think about and discuss the leading MLPs for our near term investment future I did want to note a couple of observations for you...The first is that MMP is going forward with the construction of the Saddlehorn pipeline, an $850 million,400,000 bb/d crude oil pipeline from the Niobara play in MNorthern Colorado to the Cushing,OK, crude oil tank farm, the world's largest...there are several really important factors here...MMP's partner here is PAA, which bought out OXY's half of the MMP/OXY 300,000 b/day BridgeTex crude oil pipeline from the Permian basin to Houston. Purchase price for OXY's half was $1Billion. So, together MMP and PAA are suddenly partnering on $4Billion in crude oil pipelines. And PAA and MMP between them own 30+Million barrels of fully booked crude oil capacity at Cushing...one can speculate that financially solid MMP/PAA just might work together on additional crude opportunities pushing aside weaker competitors..The second observation is that both MWE and TARGA now represent primo targets for the big hitters like EPD,ETE, Kinder etc..and I own bunches of MWE,TRGP,and NGLS partially for that reason...However, with yesterday's closing of the purchase of APL by Targa, methinks the best combination of them all would be a merger of Targa and MWE...excellent geographical balance, tons of fractionation, excellent export facilities on the GOM, and terrific presence in Eagle Ford,Bakken, Permian,OK,Marcellus and Utica...Let me note,too, that I have positions in MMP,PAA,DPM,GELand EPD,too, so I am REALLY looking forward to seeing how all this shakes out! Best Regards
Earlier today Merrill Lynch raised AB to a "Buy" with a Price Objective of $32/unit...this upgrade was assigned on the basis of better investment results,stronger inflows, and the new products being offered by AB.
As MWE adds incremental,organic growth projects to its now completed infrastructure skeleton in the Utica/Marcellus, it will have achieved the EPD model of operation in which operating cash flow is so big that going to the market for equity to support CAPEX is not a real necessity. Ditto MMP. This is of particular importance in the eventual rate raising by the Fed which is going to hammer less solid MLPs. I fully expect the rating agencies to rate MWE investment grade in the next two years. Particularly important now for all of us is what sort of wet gas zones lie another 2,000 ft etc below the current action. If the MWE Utica/Marcellus area turns out to be a multi layered basin like the Permean that can utilize existing MWE facilities this will be a bonanza rivaling the best of the Middle East. And when yesterday's CC noted that MWE is processing 90% of the really wet gas in the Marcellus you just marvel at how MWE emulated the greatest American cavalry general, Nathan Bedford Forrest, who believed in, "Getting there Firstest with the Mostest". Watching Antero simply explode the Sherwood action to a Billion Cuft/day with Mobley and Majorsville at the same level and Fox presumably gearing up for big numbers,too, is just an incredible investing experience. Once operating fully each of those sites is worth over a $Billion....
To me today's report and CC marks the emergence of MWE into the Top Tier of MLPs joining MMP and EPD as fee based, IDR free,solidly anchored vehicles for the future. The position of MWE in the Utica/Marcellus with gathering,processing,fractionation,RR/trucking,Mariner E/W,ATEX,condensate treatment etc all in place and operating makes any incremental,organic growth project pure gold. And producer customers can just plug in and go for the ride. In the Utica/Marcellus there is no real competitor...MWE has really put it all together IMO, and kudos to MWE mgmt on this remarkable achievement..Going forward, MWE can now grow like EPD did in Mt Belvieu,Texas...Nobody can challenge MWE's sweep from SHerwood through Mobley,Majorsville,Houston(PA), and Keystone...with the guidance going out to 2020, MWE is saying 1) we should see distribution up 50% in five years despite the poor pricing environment today 2) unit price will be over $100 then, and 3) If Kinder,EPD,the DCP Enterprise, ETE, Exxon,Statoil etc want to buy us it will cost a ton. Now recognize that in 2016 a wave of crackers along the GOM will ramp up on ethane. EPD's PDH plant will start using propane to produce propylene. And propane exports will continue to build. Export shipments of LNG will commence,too. So, if you want to sell MWE and try another one,great! Or have a Scotch and enjoy this!!
I smiled when I saw your comment about the possibility of Nigeria buying its' way into the USA oil market with that tanker load. I wondered about it,too, as shale has pushed Nogeria pretty much out of the USA action...but a few weeks ago Nigeria was screaming for USA Army troops to be sent against Boko Haram..Perhaps the deafening silence on that request convinced Nigeria that they had to do something to get Obama's attention? Methinks that if anyone should go to Nigeria it should be the British!
From a numbers perspective, a distribution in the $1 to 1.40 range is fine..from a corporate strategy standpoint cutting the distribution yet again might have a lemming like effect as dividend investors bail out.
I hope you noticed that Team Obama just cut a $Billion funding for the so-called "Clean Coal Project" administered by the National Coal Research lab in Illinois...way over budget and not scoring technically...and with the current White House claiming that climate change is a deadlier threat than the " workplace violence creators" ,aka Muslim extremists, electric generation via natural gas will continue to soar...the USA is the darling of the emission control list thanks to natural gas...and then it's back to solar and wind turbines...was driving west of Amarillio two weeks ago and saw MILES of wind turbines...old Route 66 had signs advertising wind turbine technician schools....next year sees the USA start exporting LNG,too...as far as energy diversity goes, not to worry...the Chinese have a monster nuclear program going ,and they will be offering nuclear plants for sale cheap just like they are doing in high speed rail. The Chinese have the volume in everything these days that supports these programs. As far as the Soviets go..they have tons of gas..but getting it to market is really tough these days..and with Putin in control you want to invest in Russia or with Russia? Better to have Antero and Range drill to 10,000 ft depths and see what natural gas zones they can find under the current Marcellus/Utica action...I expect tons of natural gas. I note that Williams/DPM just started delivering natural gas out of a 7200 ft deep pipeline in the GOM. 2016-2017 will see a wave of crackers start up on ethane and EPD's propane based PDH plant cranking up...so big changes are coming...and the Chinese now have 64 million vehicles on the road adding over 20 million/year...at the end of 2017 they will have over 100 million vehicles..crude should be moving up nicely by then.
What an extraordinary change from a few years ago! At that point everyone was building LNG receiving installations in the USA thinking of the millions of tons the USA would be importing...then, Satcmo starts singing that great Broadway Hit Song, " Hello Fracking, Hello Fracking, it's so Good to see you back where you belong...." And now it's,"So long Coal, and let's export to Europe..." ...and if Europe accepts LNG from Russia, it's crazy...buying LNG worldwide with break the Russian energy grip from Russia..."Hey,, when you got them by the short hairs their hearts and minds will follow." NG price should be over $6 in the next five years?
hi,NyMarv: if you want a "Best of Breed" CC in these volatile times might I suggest the MMP archived CC? The mostly fee based biz is solid, organic growth projects are well funded without additional equity required, and the impressive distribution growth(15% in '15 and 10+% in '16) well covered.. With investment grade, no GP, and plenty of FERC calculated pipeline returns MMP is IMO well positioned for a little acquisition action of distressed properties,too, like it did picking up BP assets and what is now the Longhorn Pipeline with its' 3X EBITDA and 250,000 barrels/day of crude flow. Looking forward to the listed of completed MWE projects,too...like to see it ramping up like MMP!