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Compass Diversified Holdings Message Board

ake05bono 85 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 24, 2015 8:05 PM Member since: Apr 15, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Questions For The MWE Long Term Owners

    by buyandwin Jul 23, 2015 10:40 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Jul 24, 2015 8:05 PM Flag

    Hi,B&W...IMO what is happening here is 1. The Marcellus/Utica etc opportunity is getting much bigger that Semple or anyone else at MarkWest ever imagined and 2. At 63 Semple isn't going to be around much longer to build MarkWest..So, who is going to lead MarkWest forward? Randy Nickerson, the Chief Commercial announced his retirement already. At age 53 is Randy leaving because of the discussions with Marathon or because he knew he would not become CEO replacing Semple? I sure don't know the answer. This leaves Nancy Buese,Finance, and John Molenkoph of Operations..Obviously, neither was Semple's pick for the future MarkWest CEO. .So, I'm guessing that Semple decided to put the future of MarkWest in the hands of bigger money/organization and picked Marathon over ETP,ETE,EPD, or Team Kinder. The Fox family and other big holders obviously agree with this choice..I would prefer that MarkWest stay independent, but without Semple I think MarkWest is vulnerable to takeover anyway...all that said I am most appreciative of the money MarkWest made for me and the family....I will keep some invested here, and I will redeploy the rest in other opportunities such as GEL and beaten down Plains and Targa. Best of Luck to you, B&W,too. You encouragement and analyses kept me investing in MarkWest in the dark, "Under $10/unit days" and I am most grateful to you. Meeting you at the MWE Investor Day in NYC was for me a real honor...Best Regards

  • Reply to

    Enterprise Acquisition

    by rrb1981 Jul 17, 2015 7:10 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Jul 21, 2015 8:53 PM Flag

    Hi,Dreiser! Good to see you here...our GEL really doing OK these days. And yes, I am assuming that in any MMP/GEL merger, MMP would be the directing force..bigger, better entrenched etc. But both outfits are well managed. And scoring..re ETP or ETE have no preference...both are very large and likely to be survivors scooping up my holdings in Targa,GEL, DPM perhaps,and maybe MMP. With Marathon grabbing MWE, we'll have EPD,Team Kinder,ETE,ETP has the big hitters..have no idea where PAA will go..it's in several JVs with MMP..so we'll see. BPL would probably fit nicely with GEL,too, given marine interests..GEL buying Martin Midstream would be a good fit,too.,,,my sense is that in another two years we'll be moving upward in oil/NG pricing somewhat, and opportunities will expand...GEL gaining a few more customers to fill Gulf pipelines would be a big difference as well! Fun!

  • Reply to

    Enterprise Acquisition

    by rrb1981 Jul 17, 2015 7:10 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Jul 21, 2015 7:04 AM Flag

    This deal also positions GEL beautifully IMO to merge with MMP to form one of the better MLP combinations available. Between the crude pipelines on land and the Gulf, MMP's marine terminals and GEL's marine shipping, crude/refined products by rail,truck,pipeline etc and MMP's storage and Houston crude distribution system this would be an amazing fit. Also, no IDRs or GPs to worry about ...

  • With GEL 1) taking over EPD's Gulf of Mexico crude oil and natural gas pipelines and becoming the lead pipeline operator bringing these products to Texas and Louisiana 2) ramping up in offshore and inland marine shipping and 3) having quite a position in crude/refined products by truck and rail it seems to me that matching GEL with Magellans marine terminals and on land crude/refined products pipelines etc would be a wonderful combination...particularly since bigger is better these days...and GEL like MMPL has no GP or IDRs to sweat....I have sizable positions in both ready to vote "Yes"!!

  • Reply to

    MWE gone...ETE sees massive insider buying...

    by bocamp1 Jul 13, 2015 8:59 AM
    ake05bono ake05bono Jul 20, 2015 6:29 PM Flag

    I suspect that an EPD aqusition of Targa would run afoul of the Feds' anti-trust folks...the combined fractionation/NGLs export position too dominant..at this moment LPG export market share of the combination probably above 90% . As far as GEL goes, a better combination would be GEL and Martin Midstream (MMLP)...the match particularly in the marine and sulphur areas would be perfect.

  • Reply to

    with the IRAN-US deal, gasoline price may come down

    by nonoyr Jul 15, 2015 1:23 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Jul 16, 2015 6:55 AM Flag

    Good Question. My immediate thought on Iran is that the impact on GEL is inconsequential. The reason is that is that a lot of oil producers like Russia,Venezuela,Canada etc have high priced crude gathering expenses..lower priced Iranian crude will hurt those countries but improve margins at the USA refineries where GEL does a lot of business..low cost shale producers in the USA will be OK so GELs crude by rail activities should be fine. The offshore pipelines will be OK because this is a long term business with very big corporations. Today's announcement of GEL buying Enterprise's Gulf business just emphasizes that point. Also, Iran may be big in crude oil production, but it is small in refineries. Has to import gasoline BIG time. Any economic boom in Iran will send gasoline demand soaring...so, again USA refineries will export more. The USA since 2011 exports more refined products in $s than it pays for crude imports..and as this business expands, GEL will score more..Bottom line, despite Iran I think GEL is OK going forward.

  • For all you folks going into hysteria over the PAA oil spill have a beer to celebrate the reopening of the Santa Barbara beaches..this was a chicken feed spill..and the noise trying to equate this mishap with the Prudhoe Bay spill or the BP Gulf disaster is just spinning. The facts are that the oil reaching the ocean was 500 barrels, less than one railroad tankcar load. The dead fish/birds estimate is 300...want to guess what one fishing boat nets per day? the total length of the pipeline to the offshore platforms is ten miles..small potatoes. Oil flow was 30,000 barrels/day..again small..cleanup costs to date are around $100 million, with insurance covering a bunch of it..the only lawsuit I've seen so far lists as plaintiffs a couple of part timers earning $500/month getting seafood off the reefs..this corrosion caused spill is not going to impact multi billion $ PAA very much..and have I bought more PAA units at the reduced price? You betcha..not going to get rich on PAA...but it is IMO a solid "widows and orphans" MLP for the family.....

  • Reply to

    Spill could be 1 Billion easy

    by winplaceshow999 Jun 27, 2015 9:12 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Jul 1, 2015 6:45 PM Flag

    Come in out of the hot sun...total spill was like a rail car load...small potatoes...lsomething like a mere 200 fish/birds killed..not even one day's catch for a small fishing boat..and even if the entire pipeline has to be replaced it is only eight miles of pipeline able to handle 30,000 barrels/day of crude...an eight inch diameter pipe should be fine..and if the claims multiply PAA will simply go to the appeals court..this is simply noise you are dumping....

  • ake05bono ake05bono Jun 21, 2015 8:01 AM Flag

    Happy Father's Day,B&W! There's nothing really precise about my projections. I simply added one new 200M cuft/day Cryo plant/q for five years and added two years to make sure I would be over 10Billion cuft/year...with the SW starting to move, the Permian a possibility, Kentucky a tantalizing prospect, and the Marcellus/Utica still boiling four new Cryo plants/year should be reasonable...and the USA starts exporting LNG this year and is ramping up exports of NG to Mexico substantially. I also note that America's school busses are switching to propane as are a lot of trucks..and next year starts a whole wave of crackers switching from Naptha to ethane for ethylene production. Add in the PDH plants going online using propane to produce propylene next year,too, and MWE will be running flat out.

  • ake05bono ake05bono Jun 20, 2015 7:38 PM Flag

    When a.)MWE opted for the third fractionation unit at Hopedale b.) Mariner East 2 started talking about laying two pipelines totaling 450,000 barrels/day heading to Marcus Hook and c.) DPM pushing its Hampton Roads Butane export facility using MWE produced butane I decided that MWE/UMTP was a non starter..why send Y grade to the Gulf when you have plenty of action elsewhere? And if NOVA builds a second cracker in Sarnia and a cracker or two get built in Appalachia got plenty of ethane action,too. MWE is emerging as the "EPD Beast of the East".. The principle difference is that instead of having one big site like EPD's Mont Belvieu our MWE has lots of sites blanketing the Marcellus/Utica and whatever layers are found in future drilling. The way MWE is going it will be processing above 10 Billion cuft/day in 2022.

  • Reply to

    My 2 cents

    by nymarv10956 May 5, 2015 12:33 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono May 6, 2015 3:59 PM Flag

    Own positions in both and am definitely interested....and was pleased with MWE's strong position in the Marcellus/Utica...given the economic times we will not have a lot of competition trying to out hustle MWE in those two shales...and with assets in place it would be great if drilling down another thousand feet or so unlocks yet another production zone! Thanks,Nymarv..and good investing to you!

  • Reply to

    Saudi Oil Minister replaced

    by kxviswan Apr 30, 2015 9:22 AM
    ake05bono ake05bono May 3, 2015 6:52 PM Flag

    What's interesting here is that 1.Saud's are facing a decline in oil reserves 2. Domestic spending is skyrocketing and 3. They instead of the USA suddenly have to finance military action in Yemen...and the dumb bunnies are driving the price of oil down? At the Saudi production rate of ten million barrels/day think of penalizing your treasury of $500 MILLION PER DAY. Or $15 BILLION//month...incredible.....Waaay past time for a Saudi production cut.

  • Reply to

    Ohio Ethane Cracker Still Economically Viable

    by chrxind Apr 16, 2015 9:34 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Apr 17, 2015 8:52 AM Flag

    A good start, but is kind of a mini-plant compared to Shell etc which require like 50,000 barrels/day of ethane and $5Billion or so...the good news are that infrastructure requirements are a lot smaller and construction times are several years less...I note that Gov Kasich of Ohio is moving towards entering the Prez race partially on energy job creation in Ohio..were e to win, Keystone approval is a lock!

  • Fun to note Jim Cramer of "Mad Money" pumping MWE,MMP,and EPD...that all three have no IDRs going to GPs, are solid performers, and are well positioned for any energy turnaround may help them avoid the Cramer cratering after pumping..We'll see! (Disclaimer: I have sizeable positions in all three..and I agree with Nymarv that MWE,MMP,and Targa are M&A candidates..and I have positions in Targa LP and Targa GP,too).

  • ake05bono ake05bono Apr 15, 2015 6:00 AM Flag

    I agree with you. This is IMO one of several signals that the GC natural gas liquids line will not be built anytime soon...other signals are 1) MWE building the third 60,000! B/d fractionator 2) Targa buying APL...recall that Targa was lined up to do the GC fractionation..the APL acquisition means Targa doesn't need Marcellus/Utica liquids 3) SXL talking PDH plant at MARCUS Hook..Marcus Hook 800 acre refinery site...plenty of space...EPD opening PDH plant at Mont Belvieu in the next year 4) DPM starting to ship Butane from Hampton Rds..supplied from MWE.and 5) you think Hillary is going to block Keystone.? Let us laugh! Kinder shipping natural gas North to get ready.....

  • Today's announcement by MMP and Trans Canada covering a nine mile JV pipeline link between Trans Canada's Houston crude tank farm and the MMP crude distribution network in the Houston area is another score from the BP assets picked up by MMP...this link brings in the Cushing/Houston Keystone Pipeline connection shipments to Houston area refineries. It also means that crude shipments on MMP's Saddlehorn Pipeline under construction will be able to flow from Colorado to Cushing to Houston for distribution...a beautiful,organic, "Ka-Ching" ,toll booth contribution to us unit holders....Cool!

  • Reply to

    Divi $0.59/share!

    by blauberry Feb 25, 2015 6:56 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Mar 2, 2015 7:31 AM Flag

    Got my brokerage 2014 tax statement...was pleased to see long term cap gains as part of TCAP return. Nice score in troubled times!

  • Reply to

    Two MLP Observations for Nymarv and the Board

    by ake05bono Feb 28, 2015 7:45 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Feb 28, 2015 10:05 PM Flag

    Had to smile about EPD buying our OilT,Nymarv...once the acquisition closed EPD imposed a "dockage fee" of $1/barrel on all of OILT customers including BP...the rationale given that "all services must be paid for"....pzzzzed off #$%$ cats are howling! Thanks for comments!

  • As we think about and discuss the leading MLPs for our near term investment future I did want to note a couple of observations for you...The first is that MMP is going forward with the construction of the Saddlehorn pipeline, an $850 million,400,000 bb/d crude oil pipeline from the Niobara play in MNorthern Colorado to the Cushing,OK, crude oil tank farm, the world's largest...there are several really important factors here...MMP's partner here is PAA, which bought out OXY's half of the MMP/OXY 300,000 b/day BridgeTex crude oil pipeline from the Permian basin to Houston. Purchase price for OXY's half was $1Billion. So, together MMP and PAA are suddenly partnering on $4Billion in crude oil pipelines. And PAA and MMP between them own 30+Million barrels of fully booked crude oil capacity at Cushing...one can speculate that financially solid MMP/PAA just might work together on additional crude opportunities pushing aside weaker competitors..The second observation is that both MWE and TARGA now represent primo targets for the big hitters like EPD,ETE, Kinder etc..and I own bunches of MWE,TRGP,and NGLS partially for that reason...However, with yesterday's closing of the purchase of APL by Targa, methinks the best combination of them all would be a merger of Targa and MWE...excellent geographical balance, tons of fractionation, excellent export facilities on the GOM, and terrific presence in Eagle Ford,Bakken, Permian,OK,Marcellus and Utica...Let me note,too, that I have positions in MMP,PAA,DPM,GELand EPD,too, so I am REALLY looking forward to seeing how all this shakes out! Best Regards

  • Earlier today Merrill Lynch raised AB to a "Buy" with a Price Objective of $32/unit...this upgrade was assigned on the basis of better investment results,stronger inflows, and the new products being offered by AB.

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