ETP may still want NGLS, but I believe that the MLP world including ETP is-going to wait and see what Kinder wants to do with the new structure. Methinks that Kinder is going after Targa BIGTIME to get the export alternative to EPD...if Taga goes ahead with a big ethane export terminal like the EPD one, Kinder would be scoring nicely by acquiring it...and Targa has signaled it is available for purchase..Targa is not stupid,either, and having ETP and Kinder bidding against each other would be GREAT..and considering my stake in Targa I would love a bidding war,too!!
It's a fact of life old buddy that MAIN is internally managed...meaning that the mgmt team buys and is awarded MAIN stock instead of using/belonging to an external manager organization sucking the basic BDC dry. MAIN is and will continue to outperform the vast majority of BDCs. Want another internally managed BDC? Try TCAP..I have scored BIG with TCAP for the same reason....
APL currently listed in top ten MLP list at BAC/ML...others on list include DPM MWE PAA EPD etc etc..so APL in good company....and since its near bankruptcy days APL has sort of settled down..incremental,organic growth reassures conservative type investors who abhor volatility....
NSLP going into services is why I started investing here...my rationale is that shale production declines a lot faster than non shale fields...so while production levels of oil and gas are going up a LOT more drilling is required to maintain those levels..that's why sand use is soaring...you have to keep bringing it in. And services will be building up,too. I like to think that NSLP paying out retention bonuses as it did to service personnel knows what it is doing here..it's obvious that the oil gathering is more or less a cash cow and services is where the growth will be...hopefully, NSLP will be similar in growth to MarkWest in shale.....
Bank of America/Merrill Lynch has just boosted AB's Price Objective to 29 and it's rating from "underperform" to "neutral"...Distributions in 2015/2016 put at $2.05/$2.30...encouraging.
Excellent news...what this indicates to me is that the NOVA guys are going ahead with a second cracker project in Sarnia,Ontario....As we all know, A. a modern cracker operation takes 50,000 barrels/day or so of ethane...and B. The Mariner Pipeline either East or West is limited to around 70,000 barrels/day because of pipe diameter. So, one cracker supplied by Mariner is OK...but you want more volume you need a second pipeline...For example, SXL is trying to build Mariner East two to Marcus Hook to get more propane/ethane for export etc. NOVA has been talking about a second cracker that they would build either in Sarnia or perhaps in the USA..The Canadians have gone crazy thinking about jobs lost to the USA if the second cracker ends up here....from a MWE standpoint this is excellent news. It will be shipping over 100,000 barrels/day of ethane to Sarnia...and a lot of propane for other chemical processes,too. Propane is used to dry wheat,too, and Canada is BIG in wheat. NOVA has a big polyethylene polymerization operation in Sarnia,too, and can ship plastic pellets produced via Ship on the St Lawrence Seaway anywhere.. So, ethane is piped to Sarnia, gets cracked into ethylene, polymerized into polyethylene, chopped into pellets or extruded into film, and shipped to market. This is NOW business and not dependent on a new Shell cracker that wouldn't be ready until 2020. But,hey, we have to thank Shell for selling off drilling leases to REX which in another year will be supplying NG from the Shell properties to MWE's Keystone III cryo plant . As Nymarv says, "2016-2017" will be the Golden years...Think $120/unit in those years IMO.
I find myself wondering whether MWE is better off doing as much fractionation as possible in its own facilities rather than simply hooking up its cryo units to a y-grade suction tube benefitting Mt Belvieu? Dedicated product pipelines like ATEX are great in that MWE gets to split out the ethane. We also know that the butane will go to Hampton Roads via rail, the natural gasoline to Canada by rail, and propane via rail,truck etc all over the NE...I am also assuming that Hopedale II isn't the last fractionator going in at that site. I think it clear that the Marcellus/Utica is a lot bigger than initially thought...good indications of that are the proposed reversal of the Rocky Mountain express NG line to take NG to the Rockies and the proposed NG line to Virginia and the SE from the Sherwood area.. SXL has been really quiet on the PR front, so perhaps it is the Texas export terminals driving all this...but I still want to see MWE get as much action as possible...and just call me Gordon Gecko..."Greed is Good!"
Thanks,Moneyonomics...what a wonderful outline...MWE will be building enormously to stay on the Antero Wave rising up..Best Regards
When you see this size NG pipeline going in you have to ask A. Just how much NG is in the Sherwood area? B. How far does this BIG NG play extend beyond Sherwood? And C. Where is MWE going to build its next WV facility? With Sherwood VII, that location is going to be one of the larger NG processing centers in North America. And when you look at Hillman popping up so close to Houston(PA) you have to ask," We going to get Sherwood South or Sherwood East? The Antero/MWE Tag Team is incredible to watch...and the kids are delighted to cheer their legacy to higher levels!!
Hi,Nymarv..I really expect KMI to sell off significant chunks of its' combined pipeline empire to finance a bid for Targa...my rationale is that the natural gas liquid surplus being created by the drilling can only be brought into balance through massive exports..the domestic market isn't big enough...and EPD and Targa are waaaay out in front of everyone else in exports. And really, a KMI/Targa group going against EPD kind of makes sense. ETE at least has SXL as its' "export arm" even though it's small compared to EPD and Targa. What really surprises me is that the USA's biggest producer of natural gas liquids, the DCP enterprise, hasn't been more aggressive in exports. Its Hampton Roads facility exporting butane is really small. If you want a really wild scenario for the future, visualize the DCP Enterprise(Phillips 66/Spectra Energy)/MWE vs KMI/Targa vs EPD vs ETE/SXL etc!
There is only one ethane export facility under construction able to handle the big volumes destined for India..and that is the EPD facility that will open late in 2016 on the Houston Ship Channel at Morgan's Point. Targa now the second largest propane exporter next to EPD is studying the possibility of building a big ethane export facility,too. My thought is that when Kinder announces the Y pipeline from the Marcellus to the Targa fractionalion area in Mont Belvieu,TX, will proceed it will also announce a tender offer for Targa to get the full package in its control.
If you look at the latest EPD presentation you clearly see the rationale for using ethane to produce ethylene from a cracker. A lb of ethylene produced from ethane costs ten cents. A lb of ethylene produced from the naptha used currently in crackers worldwide costs FORTY FIVE CENTS PER LB. what EPD then points out is that a normal cracker producing one and a half billion lbs of ethylene/year can save $480 million/year by switching to ethane. Reliance is one of the larger firms in India and can easily afford the big ethane carriers needed to bring ethane from the USA all the way to India...and this monster savings is the reason that I say that from a MWE perspective who cares if Shell ever builds a cracker in PA.? The 50,000 barrels/year of ethane required starting in 2019 pr 2020 is chicken feed compared to the massive export potential outlined here for India alone.
IMO Kinder is doing this because there is no other way that the group can catch up with EPD in what really counts today: natural gas liquid production and exports..through its fractionation operations, the new PDH plant being built, and its propane,condensate,and ethane exports EPD is really scoring...add in no IDRs and EPD has really gained the high ground. Once Kinder gets the financial war chest built I think that there are two targets that Kinder will pursue simultaneously: Targa and MWE. Targa brings in the fractionation and export facilities and MarkWest is building a dominant midstream position in the Marcellus/Utica. Even if Kinder has to sell off a bunch of pipelines to satisfy the US Govt I think Kinder would be happy....
Very nice post and comment, Moneyonomics. Thank you! I had noted the DPM plan to export Butane from Hampton Roads, and assumed that shipment to Hampton Roads would be by rail...compared to propane and ethane the export volumes of butane are small and could not justify a pipeline.. What I did not appreciate was that to get 7,000 b/d of butane requires a BIG fractionator to get that small volume out of the big amounts of ethane and propane in the NGL stream. This sure explains why having the second fractionator at Hopedale helps the butane production. More DCF for MWE and it's producer customers!
And best of all the big propane export expansion isn't quite commercial yet and the two new cryo plants aren't yet maxed out...the Q4 numbers should be jumping for joy!
Hi,Nymarv! Given EPD's size and the fact that it has 1.4 DCF coverage of its' distribution I'm guessing that the $half billion settlement is more like a speed bump than a real body blow...I doubt that more equity will be sold to raise settlement $s....EPD will just delay a new plant or two for a year and just lumber on....regards
The ethane capable tankers are being built now in a big shipyard in China. I have seen pictures of the hulls under construction. In addition, the massive , necessary expansion of the Panama Canal should be complete in 2016,too. The entire package should be ready when EPD turns the ethane export valve in Q3, 2016. Another point I would make is that crackers produce ethylene...and NO ONE ships gaseous ethylene (explosive) anywhere except next door straight into a polymerization unit to produce polyethylene plastic or another intermediate. So, when you build a cracker in WV or PA you have to build polymerization units, film extrusion lines etc etc. all of that infrastructure is in place already on the Gulf Coast. In addition, shipping polyethylene pellets by RR hopper car or film rolls by truck costs a helluva lot more than ethane in a pipe...so it's really complete system costs versus system costs that count....and you know that you have a lot of cheap land in Texas, low taxes, and little snow...when you put in union labor, tough topography, and little flat land WV and PA have it tough. Seeing pictures of MWE's Sherwood and Mobley sites is amazing...and having been through Parkersburg WV I can guess that a $5Billion cracker project there is going to be a really strenuous piece of work to accomplish....but as I said before, my investment is in MWE, and MarkWest has plenty of cracker customers for ethane...and when EPD opens its' big PDH plant next year based on propane and Targa its' big propane export expansion later this quarter MWE's propane production will be sold out,too. The second half of 2015 will IMO be a barn burner for MarkWest. Best Regards
EPD just announced that it has signed, long term contracts for 200,000 barrels/day of ethane going out of its' export terminal now under construction on the Houston(TX) Ship Channel. That export terminal goes on line in two years. With the ATEX ethane pipeline originating at MWE's Houston(PA) plant site and extending to Mont Belvieu(TX) and then on to the new export terminal, MWE will be able to "ship ethane to the ships". And with 16 crackers on the Gulf Coast going to ethane as a feedstock demand for ethane between exports and ethylene production on the Gulf Coast alone in 2017 will exceed a million barrels of ethane/day. Mariners East/West will take another 100,000 + barrels of ethane/day...and these are real, contracted for numbers. That's why you see me saying here that talk of crackers in WV an PA is just smoke at this point. New crackers plus polyethylene polymerization facilities will take five years to build...and will take only 80-100,000 barrels of ethane/day. By the time these new crackers get built EPD will have doubled ethane exports, and MWE will be sold out regardless. NOVA is talking about doubling production,too. And will Mariner East 2 still be buried in the legal system ? Tune in!!
EPD reported Q2 results this morning. Included in the notes was the statement that the ATEX ethane pipeline from MWE Houston(PA) to EPD Mont Belvieu(TX) averaged 44,000 barrels/day. With reported gross margin of $35Million reported for ATEX the cost of shipping ethane to Mont Belvieu seems to be roughly the cost of ethane itself. And with Mariner West presumably at or near 50,000 barrels/day destined for NOVA in Sarnia,Ontario, shipments of ethane from the Marcellus are now roughly 100,000 barrels/day. Have no idea what propane volumes are. However, one unit train of tankcars is roughly 60,000 barrels...and you have to believe that with two railroad yards in the Utica/Marcellus MWE has to be cranking out at least a train or two..add in the trucks, TEPPCO northbound,and Mariner East later this year and I would guess that MWE will be pushing 200,000 barrels/day of propane...