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Compass Diversified Holdings Message Board

ake05bono 58 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 3, 2014 6:06 PM Member since: Apr 15, 2013
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  • Reply to

    From MEMP

    by jbcguy Dec 3, 2014 12:06 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Dec 3, 2014 6:06 PM Flag

    I think this a very positive attitude...furthermore I do think the big sufferers here like Venezuela,Russia,Nigeria, etc will cut a production reduction deal with Saudi Arabia...OPEC cranks out like 30 million barrels/day...a verifiable 10% cut would raise prices enough to cover the lower volume...so, I think MEMP should still do selective acquisitions.

  • Reply to

    Oil Lobby

    by slawsonjames Nov 30, 2014 1:33 AM
    ake05bono ake05bono Dec 1, 2014 9:19 AM Flag

    Disagree. Saudi Arabia has a growing,demanding population that wants jobs,infrastructure etc etc like everyone else..Saudi Arabia needs higher spending,too...in addition, there's a real danger of the rest of the Middle East collapsing into Isis' hands which will put the House of Saud at BIGTIME risk. "Heads will Roll" is a Real possibility theses days...you know Venezuela is going over the cliff on this deal...and Brazil and Mexico are getting hurt as well..Nigeria is tanking into Muslim hands, and Libya is going under....Isis is no longer "The JV squad"......

  • ake05bono ake05bono Nov 28, 2014 8:56 AM Flag

    Thank you for sharing this...IMO what we are seeing is an OPEC bluff trying to get the USA to knuckle under on production cuts...unfortunately for OPEC its members are not immune from intense budgetary pain caused by low crude prices...Venzuela is at the cliff's edge,for example, and even Saudi Arabia will have to go into reserves on this one...and you think Iraq is in good shape? While not OPEC members Russia and Mexico have big income problems,too, and Argentina will whistle in the dark for investment $s unless the crude price goes up significantly...Corruption at Petrobras,Brazil's oil giant, is hurting BIGTIME, and costs at the deep,offshore fields are extremely high...so, something has to give within six months IMO.....

  • Reply to

    I have no stones!

    by lowerlevel4 Nov 21, 2014 9:37 AM
    ake05bono ake05bono Nov 22, 2014 9:04 AM Flag

    Have both. MEMP Hedge position is better...and It seems to be under the radar compared to BBEP. My $s going into MEMP 3/1 right now compared to BBEP.

  • Reply to

    Why NRP was down today.

    by ayscuew Nov 21, 2014 4:52 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Nov 22, 2014 8:56 AM Flag

    I agree with you on next week's OPEC meeting...the last time OPEC agreed on production cuts Saudi Arabia did it but everyone else cheated..this time Saudi Arabia said that it is going for share and so far is cutting prices...Russia,Iran,Iraq, Mexico, Venezuela etc and to some extent the USA are getting the shaft..you have to figure that Iraq and Venezuela are take a $Billion annual hit every time the price of oil drops a $... Saudi Arabia has $400 +Billion in reserve so it's fine...I'm guessing that if the rest of OPEC comes up with a verifiable production cut plan the Saudis might play ball.. It's going to be VERY interesting to see what happens on the 27th...Russia is sending its "Oil Czar" to the meeting...I put extra Bucks last week into BBEP and MEMP betting on a rise to at least $85. We'll see.

  • Reply to

    Question for Board?

    by nymarv10956 Nov 13, 2014 10:51 AM
    ake05bono ake05bono Nov 14, 2014 8:56 AM Flag

    Don't think Keystone will affect GEL much. Only GEL RR loading facility in North is in Wyoming...and RR shipments from there can go East,West,too...and since Keystone goes to Texas instead of Louisiana where GEL is building up no big negative effect...On the positive side Alberta crude in Keystone will require a LOT of condensate which GEL can already load into unit trains at Natchez for back haul to Canada. GEL's barge fleet should also be impacted positively by increased condensate hauling. Don't know about sulfur content of Alberta crude...but GEL might pick up a few coins there,too...am guessing that EPD and PAA might feel Keystone more than GEL.

  • Reply to

    Question for Board?

    by nymarv10956 Nov 13, 2014 10:51 AM
    ake05bono ake05bono Nov 13, 2014 4:51 PM Flag

    If Keystone is built need a lot of condensate..one big pathway is 200,000 barrel/day Southern Lights pipeline from Chicago to Edmonton..so any MLP in Utica like MWE is involved. GEL can load RR Tankcars in Natchez with condensate for back haul to Canada so any MLP in South can be involved,too. GEL brings condensate by barge to Natchez..and loads crude for GOM refineries. Neat.

  • With the Republican led Senate now in position to have a veto proof bill calling for the Keystone Pipeline to be approved, Magellan with its Houston area crude oil distribution system connecting to all refineries and other pipelines there will score beautifully....buying OXY's half of the BridgeTEX JV owned Houston area system will give Magellan the most comprehensive crude oil distribution system in the Houston area...it will be "Ka-Ching" time on the DCF Register for all of us....and that Magellan sucked in its GP awhile back erasing IDRs doesn't hurt ,either! So, just drop a postcard to your USSenator saying your vote rests on the approval of Keystone....

  • ake05bono ake05bono Nov 6, 2014 4:11 PM Flag

    IMO Semple dodged the Q asked at the end of the CC concerning the Y-grade pipeline...he gave the PC answer that it gave producer customers another option...but with the SXL announcement on Mariner East II and particularly the plan to build a PDH facility at Marcus Hook, the Y-grade line to Mont Belvieu,TX, would be against MWE's best interests. The reason is that with MWE's Number One customer Antero setting up a midstream MLP there is nothing to keep Antero from putting in a couple of cryo units and piping the resulting NGL stream into the Mont Belvieu line bypassing MWE completely. With Mariner East, MWE will be providing fractionated products ethane,propane,and butane for export,domestic use, and processing...the PDH plant is a beauty producing propylene from propane..Marcus Hook is an 800 acre,former refinery site so permits are easy and there's plenty of space. If more space is needed there's lots available in the distressed area.( .EPD has 3,000 acres at Mont Belvieu, and is building a PDH plant there,too.) What I think is shaping up is an alternative to sending natural gas liquids to Texas for Targa and EPD to process,export etc..Between Sarnia and the Philadelphia area MWE has chemical processing areas for natural gas liquids,export facilities, and storage facilities..the RR yards and truck facilities allow shipping everywhere in the East and NE...I note that DPM has started exporting propane from Hampton Roads near Norfolk and will start exporting butane this Q...think RR shipments from the Marcellus for that one. With the third 60,000 barrel/day fractionator going into Hopedale the Y grade line will be delayed another 6+months...and by this time next year I'm betting on a fourth fractionator there,too!!

  • Nothing like MMP investing $600 Million as its half of the BridgeTex Pipeline Project and then to have its partner OXY sell the other half sans Houston area refinery connections to Plains All American (PAA) for a $Billion! And as a nice final touch to absorb the OXY half of the Houston Area refinery connections is just Super...what a coup! MMP mgmt did a great job here in building book value for us and in gaining asset value that can be leveraged for the Saddlehorn Project. It's really noteworthy that like EPD our MMP doesn't rely mainly on secondaries for the CAPEX funding these days...

  • Reply to

    Saudi Price Cut

    by skinz4q Nov 4, 2014 7:43 AM
    ake05bono ake05bono Nov 5, 2014 3:30 PM Flag

    Keep your Tesla...longer term you'll be fine...even the Saudis can't exist on crude oil below $85/barrel long term due to its' own budget needs...I think that what's going on now is Saudi Arabia positioning itself in what is bound to be a very important OPEC meeting at the end of this month...the only way that oil pricing will strengthen in the near term is through production cuts...in times past, OPEC members have ignored quotas...we'll see if it is better this time.

  • Reply to

    Today

    by nymarv10956 Nov 4, 2014 6:00 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Nov 5, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    The key to oil pricing IMO is Saudi Arabia...last time there was a big price decline in crude oil Saudi Arabia followed OPEC quotas and cut production to try and boost price. This failed because other OPEC members declined to cut production...this time Saudi Arabia cut price to maintain market share..At prices less than $100/barrel Russia and others hurt..when you go below $80/barrel about a third of USA shale production is a loser...Venezuela will hurt regardless. Now there is an OPEC mtg in late November to discuss pricing...and Saudi Arabia is taking a tough line so far. I'm guessing that the price will stabilize in the $70-80/barrel for awhile before gradually rising...gas less than $3/gal and hopefully a Republican boost to the economy should encourage more driving...and Asia should continue growing...long term we should be OK.

  • In the spirit of Nymarv's sage,very profitable advice, I just wanted to pass along that MMP's decision to go ahead with its Saddlehorn Pipeline Project is IMO a remarkably aggressive,potentially very profitable move...A few years ago, MMP was kind of a quiet pipeline company totally immersed in piping and storing refined products...then came its move into crude oil launched by acquiring BP storage assets at Cushing and BP's refinery/pipeline switching connections in Houston..add in the reversal and VERY profitable, 3X EBITDA conversion to crude shipments on the Longhorn Pipeline from the Permian Basin to Houston..and MMP started on a real Roll in crude. The just completed BridgeTex pipeline, a JV with OXY is in its first month bringing 160,000 barrels/day of crude to Houston,too. Capacity is 300,000 barrels/day...and now MMP is going to link the Niobrara play in Northern Colorado to its big time storage position in Cushing with a 600 mile, 400,000 barrel/day pipeline..the beauty here is that MMP already owns most of the right of way which it uses for piping refined products from the Gulf Coast to the Rockies...kind of neat! The size of this pipeline is generally something you would associate with PAA,EPD, Kinder,ETP, Enbridge etc...To see MMP do it is super...add in a splitter project in Corpus Christie, and a pipeline system extension to Little Rock, and MMP is positioned to keep the good DCF Times coming....Best Regards

  • Reply to

    PBF in DE Studying Export of Marcellus ngls

    by ake05bono Oct 31, 2014 9:06 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Nov 3, 2014 9:27 AM Flag

    Hi,Dreiser! The bit on ngls came from a local Delaware paper I monitor that covers Marcus Hook and the Delaware River action...in this case it was the News Journal...I find myself keeping track of things by checking in the case of GEL the Natchez,MS, paper, Baton Rouge, etc etc...then I hit Oil and Gas Journal, the EIA Natural Gas action..etc etc..kind of works well..I even sent political contributions to politicians in the areas of interest to me such as WV,Texas, Colorado etc along with notes to support,please,fracking and so forth...a lot of profitable fun! Best Regards

  • It's kind of fun to report that the big PBF refinery in Delaware City,DE, is studying the export of natural gas liquids from the Marcellus...this is not a trivial exercise..the PBF Refinery is able to handle bigger ships than upstream Marcus Hook, has several thousand acres available on the Delaware River estuary, and already has 130,000 barrels/day of crude oil arriving by rail building up to 210,000 barrels/day...and who knows whether a pipeline from Houston,PA, to Delaware City ,DE, would be an easier build than Mariner East II to Marcus Hook. The State of Delaware is enthusiastic,too...and I will bet that building a Y-grade line to the PBF site for fractionation and export would be possible,too....Interesting!!

  • Reply to

    For the Board of Directors

    by nymarv10956 Oct 29, 2014 12:24 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Oct 31, 2014 8:47 PM Flag

    I have GEL , and so far it's been a very successful investment for me...even with the trough it's been in lately. In a way, I think the pause is due to GEL trying to decide what it's strategic direction is going to be. Right now, GEL is kind of a jack of all trades IMO...some offshore pipelines, a sulfur recovery business, the push boat/barges bit, 500 odd RR tankcars, and RR tankcar loading and unloading facilities...GEL even has a small refinery in Wyoming..Now what seems to be happening in a strategic direction is GEL putting together a Mississippi River based presence in the Baton Rouge area...loading/unloading,interlinked facilities for import/export involving GEL owned barges,ships,rail,tank trucks...a real integrated operation topped off with the acquisition of the 330,000 barrel capacity tanker ship that presumably will be tied into this set of facilities...call it a miniature Houston Ship Channel operation...Now, GEL has like EPD,MMP,and MWE sucked in its' GP ...so it is in good shape for lower cost capital compared to most MLPs...GEL has guided to lower,double digit distribution growth...and IMO should hit $60/unit next year and perhaps $70/unit in 2016-2017...So, nothing explosive..just solid, mainly organic growth...now, if there is going to be an acquisition by GEL I look to more marine assets like the Hornbeck acquisition of nine big offshore tank barges and push boats and the recent tanker purchase...what's changing the world GEL operates in is the decline in petroleum imports into the USA and the growing exports of natural gas liquids, refined petroleum products, condensate,and presumably crude in the future...are there bigger tankers in GEL's future? Good question...certainly moving splitter products through the Caribbean will be a large opportunity..and if crude reverses to $90+/barrel GEL's GOM pipelines will score big.

  • Reply to

    Great Earnings

    by lawwman719 Oct 31, 2014 8:52 AM
    ake05bono ake05bono Oct 31, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    With the decision to proceed with Saddlehorn can think $100/unit by late 2016 IMO...

  • Reply to

    MWE Raises Distribution to $0.89 and ----

    by buyandwin Oct 22, 2014 5:09 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Oct 26, 2014 7:38 PM Flag

    One of the growth vs CAGR issues is the gigantic growth rate of the wet gas being extracted from the Marcellus/Utica/Huron and MWE's two third market share of the midstream action..if MWE wants to maintain share it has to continue expanding like crazy...the area produces 16Billion coft/day now and analysts are predicting a double to 32Billion cuft/day..and Mariner East I is sold out at 70,000 barrels/day starting this quarter...and already Antero has signed up for 60,000 barrels/day and Crestwood for 10,000 barrels/day on Mariner East II when it finally gets built....ATEX is gearing up to supply the 16 gulf coast crackers going on line with ethane by 2017...so,hey all this action will happen...and right now I expect MWE to keep expanding....

  • ake05bono ake05bono Oct 21, 2014 12:16 PM Flag

    When I look at this great post and consider 1. Antero and others keep drilling away and 2. Our MWE has two thirds of the combined midstream action in the geographical area ...I say to myself ,"Just how big is the action going to be in this area for natural gas,natural gas liquids,and MWE?" I think at this point the only bigger gas field in the world is in Saudi Arabia...and with some folks predicting a doubling of the Marcellus/Utica and presumably Huron from 16Billion Cu ft/day to 32Billion Cu ft/day you are talking a monster increase in midstream action,too., if MWE keeps its current market share.....I noted on Antero's operational update that it is committing like 60,000 barrels/day to Mariner East II...we know that Marniner East I is sold out at 70,000 barrels/day...what this tells me is that Mariner East II is probably in the 200,000 barrel/day range..this means a) a lot of MWE fractionation and b) the Kinder /MWE Y Grade line to Mont Belvieu just might be postponed for awhile...if 85% of the Huron is wet gas, the number of MWE midstream sites will rocket upwards....

    Regards

  • Reply to

    oilt

    by dreiser139 Oct 1, 2014 9:14 AM
    ake05bono ake05bono Oct 4, 2014 6:22 AM Flag

    Right now,Nymarv, it's hard not to pick Team Targa..the whole MLP world knows that Targa is for sale with three groups having the $s and fit to pull it offf:Kinder,ETE,DCP Enterprise...add in organic growth and prospects for 40% in two years are excellent. That said, I think our MMP holdings could be in for a big boost,too,and we'll know at the end of October when the CC occurs..this Niobrara pipeline MMP just announced with a fast open season closing on Oct 22 is a game changer IMO..this is a big, 600 mile, 400,000 barrel/day line from a strategic, Rocky Mountain area basin delivering crude to MMP's Cushing tank farm...and MMP asserts this $Billion range project will be complete in 18 months. Add in the BridgeTex line that just went commercial for $625million(MMP's share), the Corpus splitter etc for $250million, and the Little Rock line for $150million and you have $2Billion or so in CAPEX hitting within the 18months. MMP is already boosting distribution this year 20% and 15% in 2015..2016 should be 20%+. Since both Targa and MMP are getting big I just put a few bucks on tiny NSLP to see if its move into oil field services pans out..I'll know in a couple of quarters. But what we all know is that with EPD's ethane export facility and propane based PDH plant coming on line, 10+ Gulf Coast Crackers starting up on ethane, the expanded Targa terminal cranking up etc etc your prediction of the "Golden Age" for MLPs being 2016-2017 is for REAL...placing bets well is really important.

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