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Compass Diversified Holdings Message Board

ake05bono 34 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 17, 2016 9:51 PM Member since: Apr 15, 2013
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  • Reply to

    DOHA meeting

    by matthewshandy Apr 17, 2016 6:54 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Apr 17, 2016 9:51 PM Flag

    SXE's business is gathering "wet" natural gas and fractionating it to separate out the ethane,propane,butanes,and natural gasoline..next year the demand for ethane will soar due to some 20 plants on the Gulf Coast using it to produce ethylene...each plant will require 40,000 barrels/day of ethane..in addition, EPD starts exporting ethane this Fall from the Houston Ship Channel..exports of propane by Targa and EPD will exceed 200 million barrels this year...and none of these natural gas liquids are dependent on oil...also, fracked wells decline rapidly and have to be replaced..since the number of drilling rigs is down significantly you can count on a big rise in natural gas prices late this year and an increase in SXE's business as the Eagle Ford area ramps up.

  • Starting in 2017 the first big ethane based crackers producing ethylene start production on the Gulf Coast..there will be 20 of them taking over 800.000 barrels of ethane/PER DAY. Some 90% of the USA produced ethylene will be from ethane on the Gulf Coast. To supply this ethane EPD is constructing a big ethane pipeline header extending from Corpus Christi to the Mississippi River expandable to 425,000 barrels/day. EPD already has customer commitments for 200,000 barrels/day. From a SXE perspective it will be able to sell as much ethane as it can possibly produce, and with exploding propane exports by EPD and Targa Mourn SXE will be able to sell as much propane as it fractionates,too..So, the bottom line is that getting SXE in shape financially is Job One..After next year the task will be meeting tremendous demand.

  • ake05bono ake05bono Mar 18, 2016 6:43 AM Flag

    At this point I think DPM can maintain the distribution without being fiscally irresponsible...oil today is at $40 and financially devastated OPEC members and Russia are meeting in Doha next month to try and get price relief...think $50/barrel and later this year demand for ethane and propane go up significantly because of exports..as noted in the CC ethane demand jumps 500,000 barrels/day next year because of crackers switching from naptha to ethane.. Add in either a wet summer requiring lots of propane to dry grains or a normal winter or both, and DPM's projections will be met and perhaps exceeded. And when your unit price is as distressed as DPM's you need confidence not distress at this point. And if DPM cuts the distribution and plunges back into the teens you think that Spectra and Philips are going to like explaining the loss of confidence in DPM? I don't think so. Net sult IMO is that the distribution will be held constant for the next two years at least. After that I expect it to rise.....

  • Reply to

    See you at $20

    by mschake Feb 3, 2016 12:03 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Feb 5, 2016 1:46 PM Flag

    Hey, you are GOOD! How about picking the Super Bowl result so we can make some REAL MONEY?!!

  • Haven't seen anything yet to suggest that MarkWEst wouldn't have been better off by itself instead of giving up to Marathon...IDRs are back, the rosy project Distribution Growth numbers chopped...perhaps a "Bait and Switch?", suddenly a Marine segment is being added to the burden, etc etc..clearly MarkWest mgmt could have done better...even Merrill Lynch has given up...new PO is down to $26 from an already reduced $38/unit..a cut in distribution is obviously the next step.....

  • Reply to

    Buying heavily here.

    by drjohnlong Jan 20, 2016 12:11 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Feb 5, 2016 7:22 AM Flag

    Me,too..am buying MAIN as well..two superb, self managed BDCs...all the others are being managed for the primary benefit of their external mgmt groups instead of their investors...

  • Reply to

    Trading 2/1/2016

    by ayscuew Feb 1, 2016 10:03 AM
    ake05bono ake05bono Feb 1, 2016 3:21 PM Flag

    Considering that NRP now gets only 43% of its revenue from coal you would expect it to behave a bit differently from the 100% coal companies...and with 41% of its revenues coming from aggregates/soda ash we can hope that in the next several years NRP emerges as a even more significant player in "other than coal. With Hillary indicted clearing the way for Saunders to wine the White House anyone still in coal is definitely going to feel the "Berne"!

  • ake05bono ake05bono Jan 29, 2016 8:33 AM Flag

    There's a saying,"The approach of the executioner concentrates the mind"..and after OPEC has transferred over a TRILLION $s from oil producers to consumers while heavily damaging Russia,Venezuela,Brazil,Nigeria,Canada,Alaska, and OPEC itself one might think that those folks might get the message...an easily attained 5% to 8% volume cut by the Saudis alone would run the. Price of crude to $50/ barrel easy...and the Saudis also need to understand that 1) USA shale will not disappear 2) The Persian Gulf folks no longer dominate the world energy market...natural gas is out of their control,too..and 3) Shia Iran and friends including Russia aretougher than Sunni Saudi Arabia and Obama led USA..Saudi Arabia also has the problem of propping up the so-called Royal Family with its thousands of "Princes and Princesses" running Saudi Arabia..So,making production cuts is both logical and timely in my opinion.

  • Reply to

    Comparing EPD prices in relationship to WTI.

    by dlw2244 Jan 20, 2016 9:53 AM
    ake05bono ake05bono Jan 20, 2016 10:04 AM Flag

    It's not. A Joke..just remember that the ethane EPD is pushing around is supposed to replace naptha from crude oil in crackers..if price of crude goes under $20 no need for ethane..propane use going down with warmer,drier weather....and it's likely the U.S. is going into a recession..you may not get to $9 on EPD, but I think $14 or $15 is a good possibility...and EPD and MMP are touted as the best MLPs...the whole group is drowning..I am just waiting for the White House to say it's really Bush's fault....

  • Reply to

    Dividend Maintained!

    by bonzo6 Jan 19, 2016 7:19 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Jan 19, 2016 8:38 PM Flag

    And that is why the stock price has cratered...going to a c-corporation structure and cutting the distribution as the proposed merger does simply tells everyone that Targa has major,structural problems that mgmt isn't completely open on....incredible irresponsibility when you consider the buyout offer declined....

  • ake05bono ake05bono Jan 19, 2016 3:42 PM Flag

    Federal lands used for coal leasing are mainly in West where mined coal is shipped via Obama 's buddy Warren Buffet's Burlington Norther RR to Pacific and China. NRP will not be exporting a lot of Illinois basin or Appalacia coal to China..

  • ake05bono ake05bono Jan 19, 2016 1:56 PM Flag

    Team Obama has cancelled future coal leasing on Federal Lands...and he still has a year to go before his term ends and Hillary takes over..and then Gov Cuomo!of NY announced that NY State will phase out all coal burners by 2020...add in China having massive alerts on air pollution and pledging to ramp up nuclear cutting back coal and you have the export market dying...the q4 cc should be a devastating one.

  • Reply to

    The State of the Union

    by ayscuew Jan 12, 2016 1:17 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Jan 12, 2016 2:18 PM Flag

    He will also take justifiable pride in delivering on his "Hope and Change" campaign promises...his goal was obviously to tear apart the America he took over and open it up to some new structure benefitting the less fortunate, the incarcerated now freed, and the hundreds of thousands of migrants able.to get a shot from open borders..No President in my lifetime has been more transformative than he....

  • Reply to

    Indicators tell me $.32/sh.

    by j157272 Jan 12, 2016 1:03 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Jan 12, 2016 1:32 PM Flag

    Chapter 11 is opening her arms for sxe

  • Reply to

    I told you about $.88/sh

    by j157272 Jan 12, 2016 12:55 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Jan 12, 2016 1:31 PM Flag

    Zero is next.

  • ake05bono ake05bono Jan 8, 2016 3:44 PM Flag

    Agree fully...the key Q is whether they had the actual numbers to back up their cc comments that EBITDA would trend higher and the distribution was covered....and I think it very appropriate that bonuses are zero, salaries are cut, and significant staff layoffs follow...the CFO should be forced out,too, IMO.

  • Reply to

    Access to capital?

    by chit3522 Jan 7, 2016 10:04 AM
    ake05bono ake05bono Jan 8, 2016 9:40 AM Flag

    EPD,MMP,MPLX, And GEL have no sweat covering backlog projects. EPD,MMP,and GEL have no IDRs to pay, and are still increasing distributions. MPLX is controlled by Marathon which as a big refiner has plenty of profits and drop downs available...

  • Reply to

    VNR - Nat Gas!!!

    by rjcrystal43 Dec 29, 2015 1:04 PM
    ake05bono ake05bono Dec 29, 2015 7:22 PM Flag

    Next month sees Cheniere opening its LNG export operation and making its first shipment overseas..this will help a little as will Natural Gas now roughly equal to coal in electricity generation...

  • Reply to

    Shipping LNG?

    by tacodude63 Dec 24, 2015 11:42 AM
    ake05bono ake05bono Dec 25, 2015 8:22 PM Flag

    No plans for EPD to export LNG...and there is so much LNG export capacity coming on worldwide that folks are getting a little cautious....Cheniere will be the first USA company to export LNG..starts in late January..and it just fired its CEO for being too aggressive in a slowing market..LNG export facilities cost like ten plus billion $s each, so not for the faint hearted..

  • Reply to

    Dividend not enough to match the price decline.

    by nonoyr Oct 27, 2015 10:58 AM
    ake05bono ake05bono Dec 21, 2015 9:43 AM Flag

    Hi,Dreiser! Good to hear from you...I,too,left MWE..amazing how the firm was sold down the proverbial River..am still in GEL,MMP,EPD, and cash..kind of treading water until the OPEC folks decide what they really want to do..Miss the MWE Board Team,too,..fine people willing to share information...learned a lot...So,hey, have a wonderful Holiday Season and A super 2016!

CODI
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