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The Blackstone Group L.P. Message Board

al13_sikorsky 6 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 9, 2014 1:21 AM Member since: Aug 14, 2002
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  • Reply to

    5 year supply agreement with Xuchuan Chemical

    by dj_rocks_it Oct 2, 2014 4:20 PM
    al13_sikorsky al13_sikorsky Oct 9, 2014 1:21 AM Flag

    Press release says that initial contract is for 300 to 500 tons per year, 1-1.6% of initial planned capacity. Based on expanded applications, BioAmber states the potential sales volume could be severe thousand tons. It is obviously a good first step and potentially a strong opportunity but BioAmber needs to demonstrate success in meeting both production and quality/cost targets at Sarnia next year to make this a success.

  • al13_sikorsky by al13_sikorsky Oct 9, 2014 1:10 AM Flag

    it seems a potential conflict of interest that both Canaccord Genuity and Credit Suisse have a buy recommendation on Bioamber for $16 And $20 after both companies served as the book runners for the secondary stock offering in July. They make money selling the stock to the public and then pump up buy recommendations.
    Bioamber may be worth their forecast but only after they have started production at Sarnia and met their production, quality and cost targets for 2015. My guess is that the risks in this start-up are far greater than either the company management and especially financial stock analysts understand.
    So far the quarterly management reports have focused on number of engineering packages released, equipmwnt ordered, etc but not on actions underway or planned to manage the start-up and commercialization process.do they have the technical skills in-house to manage a new plant start-up? This is more than just hiring and training staff.

  • al13_sikorsky by al13_sikorsky Aug 17, 2014 10:59 PM Flag

    Has company leadership defined major risks to scaling their first production plant at Sarnia? Do they have key staff, both technical but also operational leadership? Many other companies have not succeeded in scaling bio-chemical plants from lab/or demonstration plants and have not achieved quality or cost/profitability forecast.
    I would like to hear more about their plans for risk reduction in future conference calls, not just the number of engineering packages released, pieces of equipment ordered and received, number of staff hired and training plans, ERP-production and financial systems, etc. Reporting on all this is fine BUT that won't determine ultimate success of plant at Sarnia. We will be given positive news until mid-2015--but at that point the plant is either producing product within acceptable quality and production targets or else we will start being told about problems and challenges.

  • Reply to

    The Dumpiest stock in the market

    by msenny22 Mar 12, 2014 4:43 PM
    al13_sikorsky al13_sikorsky Mar 12, 2014 9:06 PM Flag

    Clearly the market sees a lot of risk...earnings are slowing all last year. They missed estimates each quarter and had to reduce projected growth rate this year and future 3 years. Lots of debt and if interests rates start to increase each point is worth $78M in additional charges and lower payout. Coverage although still OK is not as good as EPD. I also think that there are pricing/ contract renewal issues with the gas pipeline business when they bought EP. Finally, not all of their new business capital projects are really solid, like the $5+B Canadian pipeline expansion to Vancouver. There is a lot of political opposition among first nations and the Mayor of Vancouver plus a competing pipeline proposal.
    On the plus side, I really like that the fact that this entire management team have all stayed fully invested and continued to buy, especially Rich Kinder. Certainly, a lot better than at BWP, where all the management team bailed on their options in December, before they cut their quarterly dividend and the stock tanked over 50% last month. However, I wish we could get better analyst coverage. I think they all run financial models BUT don't really have a strong insight into the business and competitive challenges.
    I am long and will plan to stay long BUT they really need to start making their quarterly business plan numbers this year and not just financial engineer the books.

  • Reply to

    why bwp went up almost 5% yesterday

    by fourniersean Mar 6, 2014 7:58 AM
    al13_sikorsky al13_sikorsky Mar 11, 2014 9:17 PM Flag

    He exercised 71000 shares of options in Dec,2013 and sold them in 3 days to pocket a few hundred thousand. Why would a CEO have essentially no stock and sell his options. Could he be that he has no faith in the future of this company and his own management leadership? I just checked 5 other MLP pipeline companies and insiders generally hold 25+% of shares. For BWP, insiders holdings are negligible.

  • al13_sikorsky by al13_sikorsky Mar 11, 2014 7:10 PM Flag

    Just looked at this senior management team: Many exercised their options in Dec, 2013...amazing !!! They all sold options which were issued at $23... for $25-26...only $2-3/share gain !!! (including the CEO !!!). Why not just eat the options. Don't they know how this will appear to their average investor. They knew the stock was going to tank and they knew the results !!! pretty #$%$ performance. They should all be fired !!! Where are the Board of Directors !!!

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