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al13_sikorsky 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 4, 2015 8:49 PM Member since: Aug 14, 2002
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  • al13_sikorsky by al13_sikorsky Nov 4, 2015 8:49 PM Flag

    Sarnia plant producing succinic acid product quality above target for 2015. Product has been shipped to over 100 customers for qualification. Expect $1M sales this quarter and steady ramo-up in 2016, from 4,000 tons in Q1 to 7,000 tons in Q4. Sarnia plant will be cash flow positive in Q1 and Bioamber at the corporate level will be cash flow positive in Q4,2016.
    Financing for plant 2, equity partners, government loans, mezzanine, etc underway and expect financial go ahead decision for plant 2, next fall 2016.
    Additional financial analysts toured plant in late October. Expect positive ratings and stock to pop again tomorrow and should test highs set earlier this year.

  • al13_sikorsky by al13_sikorsky Oct 11, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    Single announcement on fermentation success in new plant has resulted in 60% stock gain and probably major short squeeze. Next key milestone is earnings call on Nov. 5, expect positive report on production shipments in Q4 and scaling up production, plus continued discussion of plans for next plant.
    Very positive, stock may retest yearly highs, above $10.

  • Reply to

    Underlying NUGT you ask ...

    by dj_rocks_it Aug 24, 2015 9:05 PM
    al13_sikorsky al13_sikorsky Oct 3, 2015 9:31 AM Flag

    Expect big squeeze on the short sellers in next 2 weeks. Look ar report on 10/15. Covering shorts will continue to drive stock price higher.

  • al13_sikorsky by al13_sikorsky Sep 3, 2015 4:17 PM Flag

    Bioamber has significant short interest, up every month since last Sept from 200,000 shares to over 950,000 shares in mid-August. Major bets that Bioamber will not succeed in their first full scale production plant at Sarnia and face a cash squeeze by the end of this year, early 2016.

  • al13_sikorsky by al13_sikorsky Aug 10, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    Bioamber Director purchased 40,000 shares on August 6, at just under $6/share. That information was released today and probably caused the 15% rise. He now owns 120,000 shares so it is a vote of confidence. Management needs to get the plant operational this quarter and then start production ramp-up and deliveries. I would also expect some positive news to be reported by Bioamber management on initial milestones achieved over the next month.

  • al13_sikorsky by al13_sikorsky Aug 8, 2015 8:21 AM Flag

    A bad week for shareholders. Earnings call did not give investors any confidence that plant will start production in Q3. Increased borrowing at end of July. CEO Promises to start production at end of September. If that fails and plant is not up/running by end of year, cash crunch will be severe and stock may drop below 3... Downside risk very high.

  • al13_sikorsky by al13_sikorsky Jul 15, 2015 6:05 PM Flag

    Bioamber has had very small trading volume--stock has been going up or down 3-5% each day with fewer than 30K shares trading each day this week. Need positive news about Sarnia plant start-up at earnings call on August 4 and a projection when actual first batch production shipments to have any sustained stock move to upside. Only with more certainty on this large scale plant can the stock or company move forward. Company promised more news at June 9 briefing on Sarnia "The next steps will include running initial fermentations and testing the purification equipment to confirm that the plant is producing bio-succinic acid that meets specifications. These activities will be carried out over the next two months...The Company plans to communicate on the outcome of these steps as the plant moves toward commercial operation."

  • Reply to

    BlackburnNews Sarnia

    by tmaccracken Jul 13, 2015 1:21 PM
    al13_sikorsky al13_sikorsky Jul 13, 2015 10:03 PM Flag

    official ribbon cutting, same day as quarterly report. I assume we will get status report on plant start-up and hopefully visibility on when we can expect actual product deliveries to begin. The key to stock performance requires a positive report followed by flawless execution.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Looks like a buy oder at close pushed Bioamber from a 3% loss to a penny gain in the last minute of trading today. Very thin trading volume moves this stock a lot, both up and down, in any single day.
    News over the next 2 months will all be about testing and start of production, most likely it will be quite positive, The key is that the company can actually get quality succinic acid production started over the next quarter. That is a huge challenge with a new plant and new workforce.
    Senior management better be engaged and not lose focus. I hope that they have production experts, on-site, and also having Mr. Orecchioni, the senior operations leader on site, makes sense. Staying at the corporate office in Montreal is not where you want the top production people for the rest of this year!!!! I am not sure of the depth of technical talent for a production start-up. Might be good to have one or two retired engineers as consultants thru this year, especially those who worked on the small scale plant in France.
    I realize that finances/cash are tight and the senior team want/need early success but based on other large scale start-ups in the bio field that would not be realistic.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • al13_sikorsky by al13_sikorsky Jun 3, 2015 4:56 PM Flag

    I would expect company report at the next quarter conference call in August will be very bullish about plant completions and testing of the upstream and downstream processes with a firm commitment for production deliveries to commence. Also, although the company mentioned 3 possible sites for the next large production plant, my betting is that Canada, Sarnia is the odds on favorite. They have taken an option on additional land and assuming that government support is positive, it really rescues their operational management risks. All their talent and experience will be at Sarnia, why go to a new site and start with a new team. Again, at least for the next quarter I would expect all good news to drive the stock price up.

31.71+0.48(+1.54%)Dec 1 4:02 PMEST