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Gulf Resources, Inc. Message Board

alan74z 27 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 24, 2014 11:58 AM Member since: Feb 2, 1999
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  • alan74z by alan74z Dec 24, 2014 11:58 AM Flag

    Gure Management has now one week left to Buy back stock before the end of the quarter for which they are required to report stock buy back activity in their 10K filing and if they showed no Buy Back while the stock was way below their price goal, they would lose the little credibility they still had (if any) with shareholders.
    They also have one week to announce the acquisition that they claimed was going to happen before the end of the year, again if such an acquisition didn't close they will need to explain why, if they don't they will show once more that they make a joke of their relationship with shareholders. Anyway, I am not too optimistic and it could be time for shareholders to start organizing and defend their own interests as the current management and board certainly do not care about them, the board which is supposed to represent the interests of the shareholders, we can say that they have so far failed their fiduciary duties and if so it's time to act.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Guesses?

    by gocoltslionssuck Dec 8, 2014 11:24 AM
    alan74z alan74z Dec 12, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    I am more and more on your side, I am just curious to see what they will do if the price goes below $1.... Anyway I am now convinced that the current Management and Board are only playing their own interest and do not care about shareholders, we will have the final proof if by the end of this quarter while the stock price has been way below $1.20 they didn't buy back a single share (they will have to report their share buy back as part of the 10K filing) and if they do not close on this long announced acquisition that was supposed to close in Q4 (2 weeks to go). As you I am also worried that this acquisition could be with related party related elements, meaning that they buy the facility from insiders at an excessive price but I was told by Helen that there would not be related party transactions so this would be another deceptive statement. In addition it could be paid in devalued shares instead of the large amount of cash that they have and this would be again a proof of their lack of interest for shareholders. They need to prove me wrong now in the next 2 weeks but I am very skeptical !

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    How Many Shares Has Management Repurchased?

    by tradelogic2001 Dec 8, 2014 10:38 AM
    alan74z alan74z Dec 12, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    I agree :(

  • Reply to

    Non Event

    by gocoltslionssuck Nov 17, 2014 9:52 AM
    alan74z alan74z Nov 17, 2014 4:55 PM Flag

    Thank you for the nice messages, yes I agree I have a tendency to be on the optimistic side but if I am deceived by the company I am willing to fight them. After this last personal attack I was ready to give up this message board and stop sharing my analyses and opinions. I will put these attackers on ignore and it will hopefully make this board at least for me more valuable. I like people coming up with different opinions from mine and even if I do not see things the same way, I do not ignore what others have to say as I know I cannot be always right, they could be right and it helps me forming an opinion over time. I only like people who have a real contribution based on perceived facts or probable scenarios not emotions and there are several people on this board with who I have been debating in the past and for who I have a lot of respect even if we have different views but I hate personal attacks and insults. Thanks again for your support. You will certainly not hear from me until we know what this acquisition is about.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Non Event

    by gocoltslionssuck Nov 17, 2014 9:52 AM
    alan74z alan74z Nov 17, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    Yes this is my name, and if I were a manipulator I would hide behind a pseudo like you do not go public as I did. Anyway you are on ignore right now as I have nothing to do with people like you, just here to criticize/insult people for sharing their opinion or teaming up with other shareholders to defend their interests against bad management of these companies which this message board were supposed to be about.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Share Repurchase Program Renewed - $1.20 target

    by puzzle4free Nov 17, 2014 8:35 AM
    alan74z alan74z Nov 17, 2014 11:06 AM Flag

    Sorry typing error, I meant not very comforting.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Share Repurchase Program Renewed - $1.20 target

    by puzzle4free Nov 17, 2014 8:35 AM
    alan74z alan74z Nov 17, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    I agree this is just to avoid delisting, yes they increased the target price to $1.20 so what, just a little higher than the previous floor but it will in no way raise shareholder value just limit the risk of going below $1.20. The true test of their focus on shareholder value will be the acquisition, what they are buying, how much they are paying, what impact the acquisition will have on the revenues and profit but also very key how they are paying for it, if all cash, yes it will help the stock price and enhance shareholder value if mainly in shares at the current price of $1.20, it will destroy current shareholder value given the current book value of the company it will dilute potential shareholder value of the current shareholders significantly. So I am not over excited by the buy back announcement, just knowing that $1.20 could be as low as the stock has gone for now and it is now very comforting when it was at $2 in early September (!) but the acquisition is still my main concern.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Another $5M to the coffers

    by gocoltslionssuck Nov 10, 2014 11:23 AM
    alan74z alan74z Nov 14, 2014 3:34 PM Flag

    You are not a fool, we are all in the same boat, there is for sure plenty of corruption in lots of these companies but there is also a lack of understanding or concern for what to be a US listed company with shareholders means. The Insiders think that they still own the whole company and in some way can do whatever they want without caring about shareholders, even sometimes things that could hurt those shareholders and sadly enough small shareholders have little to say and little control. I am trying with other shareholders a few things with companies that went dark and we will see if we succeed to make some major changes on the way the company is managed, including taking control from the Insiders which will for sure shock them but it takes time. If we do succeed this could be a warning to all these Chinese companies listed in the US and we should in fact use it to show them that they have to stop ignoring their shareholders but until we have a success story, I have low hopes that these companies will focus on shareholders' value. It also makes me sad to see what is going on but I at least want to try to fight it, not sure we will succeed but at least we will try.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Another $5M to the coffers

    by gocoltslionssuck Nov 10, 2014 11:23 AM
    alan74z alan74z Nov 13, 2014 7:06 PM Flag

    I agree with your statement but still wanted to make a point with the company and its board to show them we were watching them, I don't know personally people who went to jail for insider trading but I know some that were subject to significant fines by the SEC. GURE is a US listed company and subject to the US rules. You will tell me that they are in China but if condemned the trading firm they used to buy or sell the shares can also be fined or penalized and the individuals could never have assets in the US where they could be seized to get the money these people owe or if they travel to the US, they run the risk of being arrested. Anyway I will wait for this acquisition and at the current price will keep on adding slowly a few more shares.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Another $5M to the coffers

    by gocoltslionssuck Nov 10, 2014 11:23 AM
    alan74z alan74z Nov 13, 2014 3:24 PM Flag

    Insider trading with economic benefits is a fraud, so if any insider who is benefiting from the deal has been selling shares to bring the stock price down, knowing that he will get more shares when the deal closes, this is a criminal offense handled by the SEC and they take it very seriously. They have prosecuted people all over the world. I would trigger such an investigation by filing a complain. They also have to report if any insider is a party in the company acquired. Just sent a message to Helen asking her to pass my concerns to the Board and Management.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Another $5M to the coffers

    by gocoltslionssuck Nov 10, 2014 11:23 AM
    alan74z alan74z Nov 13, 2014 2:48 PM Flag

    My only concern is that if the purchase of the Chemical facility is going to be part cash part stocks, there could be an incentive for whoever is associated with the deal to push the stock price down as much as possible before the deal closes to get as many cheap shares as possible for the deal. This is something that I will want to understand when they announce the purchase and if any insider is part of the deal and get some of the cash and stocks, I would seriously question what happened before the deal and would submit an official complain to the SEC as it would be crime but let's see what the deal is about. I will certainly inform IR that I am keeping an eye on this unexplained stock movement and I am ready to step in if they did something wrong.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Another $5M to the coffers

    by gocoltslionssuck Nov 10, 2014 11:23 AM
    alan74z alan74z Nov 13, 2014 2:22 PM Flag

    OK I know I perhaps should not but at the current price I started placing a buy order at $1.17 as even if there is still a lot of unknown with this Chemical facility buying, I know that the company will buy back if the price reaches $1, they still have a $2m authorized stock buy back that they have never used, so the downside seems now less than the upside, again in my view and I understand if people disagree but I am the one taking the risk and it could now become worth the reward as I think that the company is in a better shape than when it was between $2 and $2.50 at the start of the year, so if it just went back there this is a 100% return versus a potential 17% loss if it goes back to $1. So moving from a hold to a buy at this price (below $1.20)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Another $5M to the coffers

    by gocoltslionssuck Nov 10, 2014 11:23 AM
    alan74z alan74z Nov 12, 2014 2:54 PM Flag

    I tried to send you the email address of Helene but I am being blocked by this message board, it starts with beishengrong, is it what you have ? she is usually pretty responsive, talked to her a couple of weeks ago.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Another $5M to the coffers

    by gocoltslionssuck Nov 10, 2014 11:23 AM
    alan74z alan74z Nov 11, 2014 1:04 PM Flag

    I agree 100% with you, the balance of sellers versus buyers is still on the seller side, therefore the continued selling as there are still lots of unknown, getting the details behind the acquisition if they show that the company is really expanding and projecting higher revenues and earnings per share after this acquisition and start using this idle cash to deliver on their growth strategy, then we should see less uncertainty and certainly a seller versus buyer moving to a buyers' advantage meaning an increase over time of the stock price. Again this is if the acquisition is large enough, looks like a good deal and a good use of the cash (meaning low or no stock issued for the deal and good financial projections) and is closed by the end of the year as told. The stock price now at 2 times projected current earnings and now close to 1/3rd of the cash value doesn't represent an economic price but an emotional price where people have discounted the financials significantly and consider that such financials are highly questionable. I am still on the camp of those who believe based on industry reports that GURE is a valid company and the financials are accurate but I agree that management doesn't really care about the US shareholders, at least it is not their first nor even second priority, I see it as kind of pretty last one and do not expect them to do anything about it in the near future.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    No Questions on call

    by joeski496 Nov 10, 2014 8:32 AM
    alan74z alan74z Nov 10, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    I was disappointed that there were no questions, I would have liked to know what resources they are looking for besides bromine in Sichuan at least. My fault as it was at 5:00am my time and I just came back home late last night so was not able to join the call. I will make sure I join the Q4/10K call especially when we will know by then what this acquisition is about, company, products, price, cash versus shares. This will be the call where we should have all the hard questions.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    my take on Q3 2014 earnings

    by alan74z Nov 7, 2014 9:14 PM
    alan74z alan74z Nov 8, 2014 11:34 AM Flag

    I agree, let's wait until we see what this acquisition is, how they pay for it and what projected impact it will have on revenues and profit. We should have less than 2 months to wait anyway. I am going to hold on my shares until such a time for sure and will review what to do next based on what they do.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    No dividend.....

    by cyclopz_n_taz Nov 7, 2014 7:43 PM
    alan74z alan74z Nov 8, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    Yes they always have this in the 10Q quarter after quarter and in fact 2 years ago issued new shares for 50% of the price of the new production facility ($5m cash $5m shares) which they said was requested by the seller as the price of the shares was at $1.29 at the time. I do hope the new acquisition is mainly in cash with little stocks as they have the cash, if it is with a significant amount of stock, I will drive a campaign to have GURE's Management Buy back those shares if the price remains where it is with the cash that they will not have used unless the acquisition is for over $100m+ and take a significant portion of their cash but seems unlikely to be that high.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    my take on Q3 2014 earnings

    by alan74z Nov 7, 2014 9:14 PM
    alan74z alan74z Nov 7, 2014 9:29 PM Flag

    second part:

    The thing that made me happy is that they finally spoke about an important acquisition in the Chemical segment, they said it should be completed by the end of the year, so less than 2 months to go: "Currently the Company is in discussions with a large sized chemical company based in China majored with TMP crude product and TMB. We intend to enter into an acquisition agreement by end of the year. The Company is also doing deeper prospecting on its well project in Sichuan, in order to evaluate the underground resources besides bromine"
    Now I want to find out what "large sized" means in term of cost and production facilities/revenue opportunity. I also am curious to find out what other underground resources they are looking at besides Bromine in Sichuan, they are a Bromine and crude salt company, are they thinking of starting a new Business with other resources, just curious. I doesn't mean that I would like them to diversify in other resources as their core competency is with Bromine but curious to see what it is. All this could justify the use of some of their accumulated cash. If by the end of the year they announce a 10's of millions acquisition of the Chemical company with good revenue and profit prospect, then I would be happy and so should the market as they would finally put their accumulated cash to a good use instead of sitting idle like today and I would be OK (I didn't say happy, just OK) with no dividend or stock buy back even if I think such a buy back would have been a great opportunity at the current stock price.
    Anyway, Q3 earnings once again are in line with my expectation, now I will wait and see if their acquisition announcement is going to happen as said and what are the financials behind such an acquisition, so I can reconsider my 2015 revenue and earning expectations. Sichuan news is right now highly discounted in my view but let's see if they can surprise me positively.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • First of all no big surprise as expected, Q3 looks a lot like Q2, comparing to Q3 2013 has to be adjusted for the relocation of factory payment that distorted Q3 2013 earnings so a comparison to Q2 is more accurate to see trends, the trend is flat, total revenues went down by 2% from Q2 to Q3 driven by crude salt down by 9%, Bromine and Chemical down around 1%, so flat. COS went down too by 3% resulting in gross margin $ to be flat. then G&A was up by $190K and they wrote off some materials that they replaced as part of the project improvement for $663K which is what brought operating down from $7.6m to $6.7m, without this write off the operating profit would have been pretty flat too, like at the end of Net Income. So as I said no positive or negative surprise here, their average bromine price at $2,885/ton or around 17,500 RMB/ton was not a surprise and is pretty close to what it is today for Q4, paving the way again to an uneventful Q4 in term of revenue and profit. By the way now over 60% of the profit is coming from the Chemical Business and unless the price of Bromine and crude salt turns around this should now be certainly the on going picture, which is not bad as the Chemical business is less volatile and should provide more consistent profit over time.
    Now looking at cash flow which is more interesting, they generated 9.4m of operating cash flow despites an increase of $3m of AR, but they used $6.5m as part of their improvement project, resulting in roughly only $3m in increased cash from $129m to $132m, still $3.36/diluted share !
    to be continued .....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Quarterly earnings 10Q - When?

    by cyclopz_n_taz Nov 6, 2014 12:06 PM
    alan74z alan74z Nov 7, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    The deadline for accelerated filers is 11/10, Gure is not an accelerated filer based on market cap but they have been following the accelerated filer schedule so I expect earnings on Monday with conf call the same day or the day after. More interested by what they will say about their cash strategy at the conf call than by earnings which should be no real surprise and similar to previous quarters, bromine and crude salt prices lightly lower than previous quarters but hopefully if the chemical business remained stable, then similar type of earnings and cash flow from operation around $10m for the quarter bringing them above $130m unless they made some investments in their current production facilities as they didn't announce new facility purchases.

    Sentiment: Hold

GURE
1.08-0.02(-1.82%)Dec 26 3:59 PMEST

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