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The Walt Disney Company Message Board

alcuomo881 18 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 27, 2015 1:34 PM Member since: Nov 25, 2011
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  • Reply to

    AA getting hammered again

    by sub4guy Feb 27, 2015 10:22 AM
    alcuomo881 alcuomo881 Feb 27, 2015 1:34 PM Flag

    What is that feeling based on? Auto industries and aero are doing fine. Not sure how the price of aluminum is doing, but these dips come and go. If there is a surplus, they will offset it with a slowdown in smelting. Its the same old story. With the downstream operations taking off, the full year results should be good.

  • Reply to

    Just flashed a buy sign today.

    by elkster08 Feb 23, 2015 1:54 PM
    alcuomo881 alcuomo881 Feb 24, 2015 4:12 PM Flag

    It closed above the 50 day SMA. I'm 12 points behind so don't worry, if I can hold, you can.

  • Reply to

    How has this stock gone up 3x?

    by alcuomo881 Feb 10, 2015 10:41 AM
    alcuomo881 alcuomo881 Feb 11, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    Well a reverse split of 1/10 would do it. This thing is still doomed. The transdermal technology is not new, even if the old board was garbage. They will need to sell a ton of equity to get the cash to get this thing to market.

  • Did people get excited over the change in directors/management? What changed? For years this stock was lingering on its death bed. Did they complete a reverse split? What happened?

  • Reply to

    Is there a bottom

    by applesandspice Feb 6, 2015 4:40 PM
    alcuomo881 alcuomo881 Feb 6, 2015 4:52 PM Flag

    A lot of selling today was on the back of a Credit Suisse analyst report that again, wasn't very bad. I think the stock will trade in a range until it is clear that revenue growth will continue at a high rate. Maybe people should focus more on GILD's other blockbuster drugs, and drugs in the pipeline, and excellent management team. There are a million things that effect stock prices every day, macro events, oil markets, currency markets, credit markets. You need to be in it to win it and there will be bad days. But if the company is undervalued and good, there will be bigger good ones.

  • Reply to

    Recall the last time GILD sold-off

    by notsoobviousman1 Feb 6, 2015 3:38 PM
    alcuomo881 alcuomo881 Feb 6, 2015 3:50 PM Flag

    Both Abbv and GILD have strong pipelines, cash flows from sources other than HCV. Look at the earnings per share. GILD is trading at 13x, much less than the market average over hogwash. In the end, the volume of sale at a slight discount will probably benefit both companies and they will both sell more of their HCV drugs, not to mention their existing drugs and drugs under development. Credit Suisse still had a target price of $115, and $69 for ABBV, both way above the current FV.

  • Reply to

    Upwards earnings revisions

    by alcuomo881 Feb 6, 2015 10:59 AM
    alcuomo881 alcuomo881 Feb 6, 2015 2:48 PM Flag

    Yeah I noticed those names. Thats the problem, these guys create 50 accounts. Oh well what can you do, its the interweb.

  • Reply to

    Upwards earnings revisions

    by alcuomo881 Feb 6, 2015 10:59 AM
    alcuomo881 alcuomo881 Feb 6, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

    Well, I did know they are involved in a lot of other business now, thats why the huge price swings seem a little crazy. It looks very undervalued to me, thank you for responding mostly there are just crazy trolls on these boards with no significant input to anything.

  • So, I know these are estimates which can change and what not, especially with a stock that is still pretty heavily tied to a commodity, but it seems like Alcoa is still vastly undervalued. If they achieve $1.17 in EPS for 2015, which is from Etrade, that puts their multiple at 14x. Still wayyyy below the market average, especially for a company of this size. They also have Cash flows going way up, to 2.06 or something. That would put the cash flow per share multiple at around 8x which is also very low. This stock has its ups and downs but at this point, if the earnings growth materializes, it would mean a good deal of appreciation from here. The other thing is if you look at long term aluminum charts, it really seems like prices have barely been climbing out of a multi-year trough, I guess due to overproduction by the Chinese, etc. With all signs of aluminum demand going up, I don't see how this stock didn't keep up its rally today, especially with the big rally in defense stocks etc. Its one day, but the announcement of the plant and everything probably has people selling on the news. I have my shares since 2011 or something with an average of $14. That seems pretty low considering the above. Thoughts by any non-trolls who actually have real insight into this company and industry?

  • Reply to

    Rigged Game

    by nav41680 Jan 14, 2015 11:27 AM
    alcuomo881 alcuomo881 Jan 15, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    Give an example. How does Alcoa have anything in common with any of these stocks? I'm not saying its the greatest company or investment in the world, but compared to where it was it certainly has come a long way. It hasn't outperformed, but it is setting itself up to outperform in the future. Only factor that makes things hazy is aluminum prices and Alcoa's close ties with general macroeconomic conditions and the transportation industry. But every company has risks. Otherwise everybody would just buy SPY and become rich.

  • Reply to

    Rigged Game

    by nav41680 Jan 14, 2015 11:27 AM
    alcuomo881 alcuomo881 Jan 15, 2015 10:04 AM Flag

    Alcoa has nothing in common with Enron or Kodak and if anything will profit from GM. They are a cyclical company, they have focused on downstream production right now as it will be more profitable in the next 10 years than upstream most likely. Upstream still accounts for a large part of revenues and is the only reason that Alcoa is even sticking around at these levels. If all goes well, they will have more of a prescence in downstream markets, so that when the cyclical price move up in aluminum happens, they will be more diversified and profits will go through the roof when aluminum comes around. Prices fluctuate.

  • Reply to

    why AA's water just broke

    by sama10amas Jan 14, 2015 10:37 AM
    alcuomo881 alcuomo881 Jan 14, 2015 11:33 AM Flag

    It could take a year. There is sure time horizon in investing. Look at TSLA today. The whole market is down and this stock is volatile, doesn't really matter what they said in earnings right now when there is a macro panic sell day like today.

  • Reply to

    Rigged Game

    by nav41680 Jan 14, 2015 11:27 AM
    alcuomo881 alcuomo881 Jan 14, 2015 11:31 AM Flag

    Sometimes you have to sit through some pain to get to the serious gains. Its more algorithims than manipulation. Macro sellers are selling and putting pressure on commodity based stocks. Seen it before, will see it again.

  • alcuomo881 alcuomo881 Jan 14, 2015 11:27 AM Flag

    That and drops in energy cost are good for aluminum producers. Alcoa has had similar big drops recently and has bounced back. The charts don't look great, but that is mostly a measure of short term sentiment in the past. I have held Alcoa through its worst years, at an average price of $14 over 5 years ago now I think. I don't want to sell when the company is actually positioning itself to succeed.

  • Reply to

    why AA's water just broke

    by sama10amas Jan 14, 2015 10:37 AM
    alcuomo881 alcuomo881 Jan 14, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    Alcoa had similar drops in the last few months and rebounded. It is typically volatile after earnings. Lower energy prices is nothing but good news for aluminum producers.

  • alcuomo881 alcuomo881 Jan 13, 2015 11:56 AM Flag

    Yeah, this is a case of selling the news I guess? Or people are attributing the gain in earnings to the rise in the price of aluminum. Nobody on these message boards can have a normal conversation, they just go bashing each other back and forth so you won't find the answer here.

  • Reply to

    Barron's Article on Dec. 26th

    by alcuomo881 Jan 12, 2015 3:09 PM
    alcuomo881 alcuomo881 Jan 13, 2015 10:54 AM Flag

    No, why did they downgrade? I think they just think that the leveraged shale plays are in trouble.

  • I feel like Barron's has pumped this stock, management, etc. and if you look at the current status of the company, there is no news, the Barron's article said they are set to ramp up production 90%, well what good is that if the prices they are getting are garbage? I am not going to make predictions on oil and gas prices, but this stock has probably been one of my poorer spec plays. They supposedly have high quality assets, but there has been dilution with the midstream IPO, a drop below the IPO price in less than a year of trading, 900 million in debt, this is looking extremely speculative right now.

    Sentiment: Hold

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