Tri-Tech Holding, Inc. Message Board

Volume coming from Magician's followers on thelion board. He's known for some pretty prescient calls.

Put another way, you'd have to be 90.5% certain that the company would be sold at .59 per share vs 9.5% that it would sell at $7 per share to get an expected value of 1.19 per share, its current trading price.

ok, so in the best case scenario, a short would get you .59 per share, while a long would get you about $7 a share given where the stock has been before. Let's say the probability is 70% that it hits .59 per share and 30% that it hits $7 per share (the odds stacked in your favor). That would give you an expected value of 2.51 per share, about a 113% gain from where it's trading now. I don't think you want to be short on this one.

It's actually a matter of prudent investing to sell your winners even before they peak to buy undervalued stocks with potential. The question is, is BSDM undervalued. Do you think the company is worthless? If not, how much do you think the company is worth, given the microwave ablation technology and the hyperthermia equipment. Keep in mind they are the only game in town when it comes to hyperthermia. I am interested to know what kind of valuation you'd give to the company.

Sad, really. Company in the thick of a country where 80% of the lakes and streams are polluted and they can't do any better than this? Some American firm could buy them out for a song and get a foothold in China and India.

Loss less than previous quarter.

But the volume is now much higher than before the offering. Somebody is accumulating big time, keeping the price low to get more shares. I can't imagine all this volume just for a 3 cent gain! Nor can I envision them to be shorts.

I think you mean May 31st?

That is what the CEO has intimated. But if you were to value the company right now, consider this: in 2005 Tyco's Valleylab bought Vivant Medical, maker of the VivaWave microwave thermal ablation equipment, for a total of $101M ($128M in today's dollars, just using CPI inflation rates, not healthcare inflation rates which are much greater). At the time Vivant had 17 employees and one product, not yet approved by the FDA. Based on this figure, BSDM would be worth around $4 a share today. But BSD Medical not only offers microwave thermal ablation equipment but also hyperthermia, has 50 employees, numerous patents, a worldwide distribution network, and its own FDA-approved manufacturing facility, not to mention net carry-over losses that can be used to offset profits, yet has a market capitalization of less than $40M. If worse comes to worst, the company could sell at at around $7 a share in my opinion, given the prospects of the technology.

Bottom line is this. I believe BSD Medical is in dire need of a partnership with a major player such as Siemens or the up-and-coming Health and Medical Equipment division of Samsung Electronics. These companies have the marketing muscle that would give the BSD Medical much-need visibility and the deep-pocketed financial resources to conduct the studies that insurance companies and government regulators require to bring the product lines front-and-center in the marketplace. Finally, they would have the means to conduct the PR needed to make cancer patients aware of the amazing results of microwave thermal ablation and hyperthermia in the treatment of cancer.

As to hyperthermia, there is the added hurdle of government regulatory approval and a bad perception left over from hyperthermia studies done in the 1980's. While the BSD-500 is fully FDA-approved for certain cancers just below the surface of the skin, the deep tissue BSD-2000 line has only a humanitarian device exemption (HDE) from the FDA. Many studies have been done which show the efficacy of deep tissue hyperthermia, yet the perception still lingers that the temperature cannot be controlled, that its effective range varies for each patient, and that different tissues respond to heat in different ways. You'll find literature still citing studies done in the 1980's. What they don't account for is the fact that the temperature can now be more precisely measured with the Bowman probe and through functional MRI's, that software has since been developed to plan the heat treatment session by hitting the tumor at different angles and with different duty cycles, depending on the type of tissue and the patient's heat tolerance and response profile. Germany has been a leader in this area.

My personal take is that hyperthermia should be standard practice for the treatment of cancer early on. It should not be a last resort as it is now. The reason is that the patient needs to give valuable feedback to the radiologist as to the comfort level of the temperature setting. This information would be used for all subsequent sessions. The problem with bringing hyperthermia in late in the game, is that radiation which is coupled with hyperthermia, destroys the nerve endings in the tumor such that the patient can no longer feel the temperature range that should be used for them. So the equipment might not be set properly. Even so, with hyperthermia being used as a last ditch effort, the results are remarkable.

BSD Medical, with its limited resources, has wisely chosen to identify the key players in the industry, the pioneers who are prolific publishers in leading journals and who are keynote speakers at conferences, and make their equipment available for them to try. Dr. Dupuy is one such individual. He was using competitive equipment to perform microwave ablations. Now he is using the MTX-180 and has joined the board of BSD Medical. That tells you how much he thinks of the equipment.

The "rental" program is not a leasing arrangement, but a "fee-per-use" program. It is different in that the equipment is moved from hospital-to-hospital in a region on an "as-needed" basis. It's actually a clever move on BSD Medical's part. First, they do not have to build up huge inventory, requiring much up front capital for parts, labor, etc. Secondly, they don't have to pay the new 2% excise tax on sales (part of the healthcare reform act). Third, they can write off the equipment as a cost of doing business. And finally, they can use the program to showcase their equipment to a broader range of hospitals, all the while making their money off of antenna sales, which is where the real profit margins are. I do believe it is an effective stop-gap measure, but in the long run, I don't believe it's scalable as more and more hospitals begin to ramp up on microwave thermal ablation. At that point, I'm sure the company will switch over to the standard sales model, but in the meantime they can bootstrap their way to success in that market sector.

Don't think so. Still someone bearing down on the ask at 1.04. Some 40k shares. This stock will dip under 1, maybe .76 to test the low for the year.

what? I didn't lose lots of money. I'm just trying to point out that this poster thinks he'll get away with defamation because he's posted under a pseudonym. Believe me, you can be tracked down easily. I have developed web applications. The IP address is logged along with the time of posting. The Internet Service Providers, when served with a subpoena, can give up the name of the person whose IP address was logged. It's done all the time. Be careful of what you post.

Your IP address has been recorded. Based on that, the Feds can get your name and address from your internet service provider. This is not a smart thing for you to do.

My take on the India contracts, from Dec 18:

If you do a Google search on Bihar Urban Infrastructure Development Corporation and click on the Projects tab, then select current, you'll see the 3 projects Tri-Tech announced listed. If you convert the crore rupee (crore being $10M) to dollars, you'll come up with $20.7M, $11.9M, and $13.6M for a grand total of $46.2M at today's exchange rate, a little over the $42M Tri-Tech announced. Now if you look up National Ganga River Basin Authority on Wikipedia, you'll find that it is headed up by none other than the Prime minister of India, and his cabinet members are on the board. So Tri-Tech will have no problem collecting, IMO. The company has announced they have received cash advances for the Indian Bihar sewage systems projects in mid-October and mid-November. The Bihar projects are currently being implemented as scheduled, and the company anticipates further cash payments as the projects continue to move forward. So unlike the Ordos project, the Indian projects have much more favorable terms from a cash flow standpoint.

no, this quarter's financials are not quite done. Reviewed last (Nov) quarter.

Yes, didn't catch it, but he was on the call. This is VERY significant. He's obviously looking to do business with BSD Medical. That's why he was asking questions about running out of cash. He's offering his services. Of course, if they do a secondary with Morgan Stanley, you know Morgan Stanley will recommend the stock. Morgan Stanley does not mess with microcaps. They must see huge potential here.

Yes, but 2 brokers is infinitely greater % than the last call. Do your realize how big an interest by Morgan Stanley is? And the significance of his question about running out of cash? He's looking to do a capital raising for BSD Medical. He wouldn't give this company the time of day if there weren't potential for a large $$$ deal.