yay, we held 30! Now 3D Systems needs to follow up with a positive announcement such as manufacturing backlog is starting to clear! That would be good for a 20% pop, IMHO.
I took a tour of the 3D Systems facility the second Thursday in November. The guide showed us a printer that was printing prosthetics for a dog born with deformed front legs. This is the result of that:
My experience with DDD is you have to look at what the stock does at 10:10, 12:30, 2:00, and 3:30. If it holds its own at these checkpoints, it's off to the races. So far, so good, but we really need to clear 30 and hold it today. Some followup news would be good tomorrow.
You nailed it! Congrats. I just wonder if the algobots are just trading on TA. That's why it works.
I agree the consumer printers are nothing but novelty items right now, but the industrial printers, especially the metal ones, are really impressive. GE is using them to build parts for their jet engines. I've actually seen the output of a 3D Systems metal printer, and the finish is every bit as good as a cast part. There have been tremendous strides in quality and durability in the last 3 years. As to the consumer printer, it probably has another 2-3 years to go before it will gain any kind of traction with consumers. But what will accelerate its development is the current printers being used by hobbyists to print parts for the next generation printer that they all can collaborate on. Open source projects and Kickstarter funded projects will proliferate. You can't compare what was done decades ago with what can be done now that everybody is connected via the Internet and can share code and parts they've produced.
But there's also a huge short interest, near 40% now. Sentiment is almost universally negative. That's when you want to buy. The company has been around for decades. Not going BK. Someone will make an offer. Continuing to buy from 30 down into 27's, equal installments, known as dollar cost averaging.
Shorts are still in control. Volume is not high. What I see is a buyer's strike. Need a catalyst, like Siemens takes a stake in the company to reverse course.
You are spot on. I've actually invested in both companies, but I think 3D Systems has the edge for exactly the same reason you outline. HP has a lot of overhead centered around PC's and printers and enterprise services. They are not focused on the manufacturing space, something 3D Systems has been doing for 30 years. HP's 3D offering, while impressive, doesn't acknowledge the fact that manufacturing is a capital intensive business. You can't just upend what you've invested huge sums of money in, not to mention ISO 9001 processes that are used to control quality. Right now, HP's 3D printer can't do the entire job (nor can anyone else's), but 3D Systems has the right idea with their raceway continuous fab product. Build product on a 3D printer raceway, send it out to a pit stop when manual assembly is required, then re-enter the track when further hi speed 3D printing is required. This is a hybrid approach which transitions manufacturing from existing infrastructure to 3D. It fuses the best of both worlds and is likely to be adopted more so than the "all-in" approach that HP is touting.
Normally, when a stock has gone up 10 fold and there is some major issue, the stock will lose 90% of its value. In this case, there is no major issue. It just got ahead of itself with all the Motley Fool pumping. So maybe 67% of its value is more appropriate here, a good Fibbonacci number.
3D printing is real. The consumer boom is not quite here, but manufacturing is on the verge of exploding, especially in the specialty areas, where customization is paramount, such as dental, prosthetics, shoes, etc. 3D Systems is in the sweet spot here. I saw a shoe they had printed for one of the shoe companies. This is where the high margins are. Once the company learns what technologies work best, they will go through a cost/value engineering phase to reduce the cost and ramp up the volumes for consumer printers. I project this to be 2-3 years out. We are close to bottoming out. December is the time to buy as tax loss sellers dump and the market is in the doldrums over oil.
thx, that's what I'm seeing as well. I don't try to get it down to the penny. I dollar cost average in. Started at 34, then 32. Will do 30 (29 if the market futures dive in the morning), then finally 25-28 range. At that point, I'll be poised for the next run.
so tell us when it's going to turn? I see it at around 30 in the chart, maybe as low as 29 if the market dumps tomorrow.
Well, it's not like 3D printing was a passing fad. It's not. My company uses them for prototyping. And I work not too far from 3D Systems in Rock Hill. I've seen the facility. I've seen the printers in action. And they have many -- one the size of a coffee maker for fabricating jewelry, another the size of an automobile for printing dashboards. They are expanding manufacturing to a 200,000 sq ft warehouse that they've leased. This is THE future of manufacturing. As far as the consumer goes, I think there's probably another 2-3 years before it becomes widely adopted due to the print times involved.
It's rare that one hits the exact bottom. The best you can do is look for the support levels and buy there. If the stock is being controlled by algobots, they have definite targets and it's impossible to know what the targets are. I suspect that's the case with DDD. It's too orderly on light volume to be funds dumping.
I wouldn't be surprised if HPQ bought out DDD, even though they are working on their own solution. They are way behind and they know that DDD has a raceway solution that integrates into existing manufacturing processes which is 5x faster than their solution. Over 1,200 patents with vendor and customer relationships already in place. A broad portfolio of companies to boot. Manufacturing operations up and running. Widespread publicity, a recognized leader. What's not to like? Good synergies, here.
way oversold, but the entire sector is being trashed, and the stock market is in a tailspin as well, so it's not surprising. Oil stocks and 3D printing companies are becoming real attractive here.
I know. I've seen a good video on the jet engine parts they are producing. My point is we are at the beginning of a giant tidal wave. This opportunity is one an investor does not want to miss. Waiting for $30 to buy more.
I hold stock in both companies, but 3D Systems has the raceway continuous rapid fab technology that is 50x faster.