See my reply to fluteman. Perhaps longs are shocked are no longer surprised that pps didnt skyrocket to 90 today on such favorable news. Today's 4 % gain was rather disappointing. We also don't know if 22M shares will be covered. If half of those shares are held by ackman, i have a feeling he won't cover and just hold on to the shares indefiinitely.
We all know ackman has lost this battle. Question is if and when he will finally throw in the towel
You are 100% correct. I have learned to take profits after watching pps go almost 30 points above my cost basis, give back all of my gains and linger for a while at a price lower than my original cost basis. After being whipped around up and down from black to red and red to black, I finally got fed up and started to take profits.
Sadly, I gave up any hope of 100 after watching pps jump a mere 10 points from 45-55 after 2/26 earnings release. Furthermore, a mere 5 points from the "advanced stages" release 3 weeks ago and a measly 8 percent again after today's rumor of a resolution.
I have started to take my profits and wait for a pullback to buy at or a couple dollars more than my original cost basis. I also keep some shares as a core, write calls against some shares to collect the premium if calls expire worthless or sell shares if assigned.
Like yourself, I'm playing every angle and yes one can't go wrong taking profits.
I'm as long as long can get. As much I would love to see90-100, I feel that much of a resolution has been baked in. We went from 45 to 62 since Feb 26 when HLF announcement pending resolution.
I'm with fluteman. I feel a more realistic gap up is 10-20 percent to 70 before the shorts try to take it back down again.
HLF will then trade on its execution without ftc overhang.
It's a possibility. At the very least, he may look to takeit private after ftc resolution. No one would want to buy a company in the midst of federal and state investigations that could potentially put it our of business or severely hamper their financials. No lender would take such risk either.
VRX has a very real chance of going under and taking PS down with it. Accounting scandal, double billing, zero credibility, massive debt load that they have little chance to pay off..Within 2 years, I would not be surprised if PS goes under.
does management have obligation to publicly disclose settlement as soon as it is settled? hlf is a public company and shareholders deserve to know this info as soon as it is confirmed. Why wait til earnings or annual meeting?
Troll, Gasparino is pro HLF. Did you see this discussion with Liz Claman that came out 6/23/15
Liz Claman: Charlie has an excellent point to make about Herbalife. This is a tough turn, but we’re going to make it. Herbalife [is] making some major gains this year. Look at the jump year to date – that’s 80 percent. Had you bought in January, you’d be up 80 percent.
Claman to Charlie Gasparino: Charlie, what’s going on with this company?
Charlie Gasparino: I never give stock recommendations but, you know, this is kind of a sleeper stock that people haven’t realized that it’s jumped almost 100 percent. A lot of people think it’s going to go higher. Here’s what we know: It’s set to double… double since late January. So that’s a pretty big move. And here’s why it is.
Gasparino: Essentially investors believe that the FTC investigation into Herbalife, whether it’s a pyramid scheme as Bill Ackman, the short-seller says it is, a lot of… most investors are coming around to believe that this company is not going to be shut down. That if it was going to be… if they… if the FTC was going to rule it’s an illegal pyramid scheme, they would’ve done it already. That’s at least what investors say. I do know from people inside the company, what they do… what they are expecting is by the… sometime after the summer the FTC will come out with its official decision.
Gasparino: My guess: They’re gonna come out. Slap ’em around a little a little bit. Say, you know, ‘You had some deceptive marketing tactics, uh practices,’ you know. Which we should point out Herbalife has basically cleaned up since this thing began. But I, you know, my guess is that this company is not going to get shut down. That’s my guess. I’m not predict… I’m not in the prediction business, but…”
Claman: Well, Bill Ackman has been out to get this company, Judith. I mean he really has. He has cried over what he feels are slights against the people who sell these health shakes. It’s almost like he has taken it too pers
To add icing to the cake, HLF is at a 52wk high and in the green while dow is down over 100 points. Too bad you did not keep your 100 short shares from the 80's/90's but who would have predicted the impending slew of bad news to plague VRX?
Greg. You are right once again. What a joke that investors are bidding stock price on this temporary delay o f BK. From lost of credibility to accounting fraud to federal investigations above and beyond the massive debt load, VRX is ultimately doomed. Who says VRX can even pay off their 30B debt given their current financial position and NO growth. I foresee BK in near future. This has Enron and Worldcom written all over it and Ackman's PS will ultimately go down with it.
The fact that HLF is in settlement talks with FTC implies that a resolution is months if not weeks away. Being on the conservative side, I would say end of the year, the FTC would have wrapped up their case once and for all. Of course this is super conservative. More than likely, it will be much sooner
Very good question. My guess is settlement is reached, it would front page news the moment the settlement came to fruition. I can't imagine a public company withholding such critical mainstream news from the public and especially investors
Flutie - you are correct. As much as I would love to see pps jump to 100 upon FTC resolution, I cannot realistically see it happening. The prospect of the FTC resolution resulted in a mere $9 jump. You predicted a $10 jump. I'm not convinced we will break its all time high of 81 even with a complete exoneration.
FTC and HLF are in talks which implies a monetary fine of some sort at the very minimum. It's clear that shutting down HLF is out of the question as is ending investigation with no action taken.. This leaves a fine of some sorts and quite possibly some changes to the business model.
Let's face it longs - we are not going to 100 plus. We will be lucky to get another $10 increase once this ftc issue is resolved.