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BlackBerry Limited Message Board

alex_iff 210 posts  |  Last Activity: May 3, 2015 2:01 AM Member since: Jun 19, 2008
  • Reply to

    TWTR revenue

    by alex_iff May 2, 2015 5:09 PM
    alex_iff alex_iff May 3, 2015 2:01 AM Flag

    nobody compares social media companies and metals. I just provided an example how overvalued social media stocks. It goes without saying if stock market valuate companies using their fundamentals (current and/or future) as a major criteria. Let's say somebody wants to buy ABC company. What is your purchase criteria as a buyer? Would you pay for 500-1000 annual earnings (LNKD, AMZN)? NEVER!

  • Reply to

    this company is prime to be bought out

    by ledzella May 2, 2015 12:40 PM
    alex_iff alex_iff May 2, 2015 5:28 PM Flag

    do not be naive. A right market price for this company is below 1B.

  • alex_iff by alex_iff May 2, 2015 5:09 PM Flag

    =1/20 (5%) of MC.
    TWTR is losing money company with very distant future to become slightly profitable.
    A current TWTR MC is huge, e.g. 1/2 of GM. Absurd valuation!
    Can you imagine your life without cars? I can't.
    Can you imagine your life without TWTR? I can. I won't notice if TWTR dies or alive. It will not affect my life at all.
    FB has an enormous valuation. Bigger than all aircraft+airlines industry altogether. Bigger than all automaker companies altogether.
    JMHO: all media stocks are hugely overvalued, actually the same bubble like 2000 dotcoms.
    If you use the same criteria for these stocks as for say, metal industry, energy, etc. a right price is
    TWTR - $3-5
    FB -12-15
    LNKD 20-25
    AMZN 30-35
    Do not mess the above-mentioned garbage with really good money making machines - AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, etc.

  • Reply to

    Kevin barker downgraded Ocwen to sell

    by valuecont May 1, 2015 9:59 AM
    alex_iff alex_iff May 2, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    he is a #$%$ who feels upset to be late to the party. In a tough reality a current $10.20 is actually a bottom price. 2.5-3 fold of a gain within next 6-12 months is still ahead. The stock was $60 a year ago.
    Dislosure: I was lucky to buy in 5.30-5.80 range, then sold 50% when the stock marched to $9-10 and still hold almost zero priced for me (cost out) several K shares. The next 50% sell target is 21-22, the final sell is $34-35. I also have several Ks of ASPS (average buy price 21). No one ASPS shares were sold until now. Targets: first 50% sell $45-47, second 50% (from remaining 50%) $65-70, the final sell $90-95.

  • Reply to

    my another

    by alex_iff Apr 30, 2015 4:25 PM
    alex_iff alex_iff May 1, 2015 11:35 PM Flag

    It turned out I was right also on ATHN -the stock dropped today and my yesterday bought put options already doubled. Looks like this strategy works in current times.
    As for SSYS the stock will rebound a bit ($42 is my target) but then will continue to slide.

  • Reply to

    We will see 5 before 4!

    by linfromchina May 1, 2015 11:48 AM
    alex_iff alex_iff May 1, 2015 2:28 PM Flag

    $5 will be made within next 2 weeks. On May 15th the stock should be closed around $5. Then a free ride to $8 follows.

  • Reply to


    by puregamble5 May 1, 2015 9:55 AM
    alex_iff alex_iff May 1, 2015 10:36 AM Flag

    asps is under attack. You can make a guess why though it is easy: a lot of shorts and 2 weeks before OE. No fundamentals, no prospective, no achievements can not help within nearest time frame. It is a buy/hold stock with all these huge spreads, huge 3-5% leaps from trade to trade, etc. Nevermind, the stock will hit 50 within next 3-4 months while OCN probably is going to make the same 100%. All positive signs are up while both stocks are trading at below basement level. D not forget that only a year ago they were 160 and 60 respectively.

  • Reply to

    my another

    by alex_iff Apr 30, 2015 4:25 PM
    alex_iff alex_iff Apr 30, 2015 8:09 PM Flag

    looks like ATHN will break a winning list. Anyway ATHN overvalued hugely and a bit of patience will bring it down too.

  • alex_iff by alex_iff Apr 30, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    overblown "darling" LNKD. Wow!!!!!!! My put options will make a killing tomorrow!
    4 huge gains in a row: SSYS, WYNN, TWTR, and now LNKD.
    The next is ATHN.
    Should ATHN drops 20-25% my entire account will be tripled within a weak though I use only 20% for option play.

  • Reply to

    Shanghai RE Index up 6% last night

    by ksn_44 Apr 30, 2015 9:46 AM
    alex_iff alex_iff Apr 30, 2015 4:02 PM Flag

    may be but a simple math does not allow this difference. EJ owns 70% of LEJU. Right? If these 70% costs more than an entire EJ MC it means the market values 4.4/share cash and other EJ business as a NEGATIVE value. Okay, say the market can discount business but how about cash? Even in 2008-2009 I did not meet situation like that (only for heavy indebted stocks). It like you have say 2 accounts in your bank, first 10K and second 20K. You go to bank and it prints only 7K on both accounts saying 10+20=7.

  • Reply to

    really huge volume today

    by alex_iff Apr 30, 2015 11:21 AM
    alex_iff alex_iff Apr 30, 2015 3:27 PM Flag

    if CVEO hits 10 my Jan 2016 calls will bring 1200% gain.

  • alex_iff alex_iff Apr 30, 2015 3:17 PM Flag

    always use your brain and make a thorough DD before buying/selling. This is it. Jana is a hedge fund with not too smart management though they have more than enough financial power to play stocks. They use force instead of brain. Sometimes it works if you are say GS, sometimes not if you are Jana.

  • Reply to

    It looks like tomorrow open at 5$

    by vin_007_13 Apr 30, 2015 2:43 PM
    alex_iff alex_iff Apr 30, 2015 3:13 PM Flag

    Nas is off by 94 and probably will be off by 100+ very soon. A general market is overheated and should retreat considerably to play long again. I have only 2 stocks long now, both bought too low to worry about their performance. All other "investment" is sold short through buying puts for more than 15 stocks. For the last several days I got a nice return with those options: TWTR, YELP, SSYS. Several more are waiting for their turn.
    Once again: a general market is a bubble for number of index related stocks. Almost all of them valued too rich to stay away from short selling. It is a much more attractive than CVEO for 2.50.

  • Reply to

    Nice short -lots of downside

    by shhc Apr 30, 2015 12:17 PM
    alex_iff alex_iff Apr 30, 2015 3:01 PM Flag

    if you mean me I cashed only trading position. You never know how the market reacts to ANY news, positive or negative or neutral. My core position is intact until around $8 that will be 8 fold (700%) gain after all the trades.

  • alex_iff by alex_iff Apr 30, 2015 12:23 PM Flag

    puts with x9 fold gain and bought calls. The stock is going to rebound to 42-43 level before the next leg down.

  • Strange and unusual reaction As soon as CC is done. CC was great and a price reflected it. Now it looks like "the market" changes its mind. All in all the stock is still greatly undervalued. $8 is very realistic target for 2015.

  • Reply to

    Shanghai RE Index up 6% last night

    by ksn_44 Apr 30, 2015 9:46 AM
    alex_iff alex_iff Apr 30, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    today's China RE performance are ahead of these numbers. Likely they are going to be good. As always EJ underperforms LEJU and SFUN. I'm wondering why? EJ has better financials and lower MC. Just a puzzle for me.

  • my best expectations. Honestly I thought we will watch a pullback in the morning, that is why I set a huge trading buy order for 3.9. Really huge. Should I had a chance to buy this amount of shares for 3.9 and sell them for 4.30 my core position would have been completely cost out. GRRRRRRRRRRRRR!
    Okay no complains.

  • Reply to

    Qtr Report is out

    by boardofficer Apr 29, 2015 7:35 PM
    alex_iff alex_iff Apr 29, 2015 7:47 PM Flag

    Q2 guidance is lower than Q1 results.
    2015 guidance REV 550M i.e. probably 2015 EPS is going to be in 25-30c i.e. under current share price we have a stock with PE=15. Q2 is already affected by low oil price. Should oil stabilize in 65-70 level and after all relocation expenses done I won't be surprised if revenue and EPS marches up considerably. All in all a current share price is the lowest end of reasonable valuation. Actually it does not stop any direction price movement within nearest future.

  • Reply to

    ASPS - not for everyone

    by puregamble5 Apr 29, 2015 5:26 PM
    alex_iff alex_iff Apr 29, 2015 7:06 PM Flag

    every stock and the market as a whole are 100% manipulated. ASPS is not alone. I agree it is easier to play low liquid stock though I see no problem et all. ASPS reiterate $2.50+ 2015 EPS (I do not remember now exact digits). The worst is behind the company while the stock price is near a bottom. Yes. an absolute bottom is almost 50% lower but it was a deliberate raid down to force all weak hands to sell. Can we see again 160 and when? I have no idea. All I do know is my average buy price is around 20 and my average sell price is going to be in a range of 55-60. when? Probably within next 3-4 months.
    Can ASPS be brought to 20 again? I doubt because all the news already released will cause a huge buying pressure i.e. those who play May $20 call option with open interest of 1000 contracts should sell short much more shares than 100K to bring the price so low. Then they have to cover in this price range that is very difficult when everybody buys. If OCN does not fail there is no chance for ASPS 20% sell off.

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