totally agreed: time, calm, patience. Just dismiss all the legalities and nominal current fundamentals bring 5-6 bagger.
1. not all legalities left a scene though today's news are tremendous.
2. shorts are too strong to let it go with not stop.
That is why I sold out all my ESI position this morning for 4.14 and waiting to double it when shorts bring the stock lower.
do not try to find a rationality. VXX and XIV always have the same %% (only opposite). Take a look now: XIV 1% up and VXX 7% down. Manipulation
yeah, it looks like 1.2-1.3 is the very bottom. A further dragging price down both senseless and probably impossible due to big buy orders to get filled. I have 2 huge buy orders in 1.1 and 1.01.
No way SUNE cancels the deal because if it do it means SUNE agreed in its mistaken business model i.e. a total fail. The stock will be killed to low single digits within hours.
SUNE will buy Vivint and will try to buy FSLR or/and SPWR. If SUNE buys both SUNE stock will go straight up to stratosphere. Any price even a triple one will be justified in this case. And this is the only chance for SUNE to survive.
definitely manipulation BUT it was also manipulation bringing this loser to 33 while the best price it deserves is $3. You did not express complains when the stock was taken to stratosphere with no merit.
I stated in this board that SUNE right price is low single digits. I explained why and explained why I went short through put options. In those times I was attacked by longs. Now SUNE is approaching to single digits. Honestly I did not expect it will happen within a month. SUNE is a big gamble taking into account deep pocket players behind its back. since the WS never plays fundamentals I can expect that as soon as all longs leave the stock it will be taken up with he same manner as and same magnitude as NFLX and LNG. Who cares of fundamentals in modern markets! Sentiment and money supply is everything.
Nevertheless SUNE will hit medium/LOW single digits before a recovering process (if any) takes place.
Specialist (MMs for Nasdaq) is helping to cover at 3.24 pre-arranged price. All big blocks today passed at this price. The last one was 11K. Manipulation at its best. An actual volume almost does not exist. Buyers 100% are sitting on sidelines, sellers mostly too. Weak hands drop shares on a small rise helping to cover. In days like today accelerating stock a bit higher would have let shorts to cover much more effective. For example I would sold my trading position should a stock rally to 3.50 but now I'm sitting on too small gain to sell.
my point is this stock trades well below its fundamentals i.e. undervalued. Otherwise a short position would have been increasing. A chance to make money buying now in 3-4 level is much higher than to lose them. The only problem is a waiting time that can lasts for many months and an exit point that depends on event development. Any digits would have been speculative. ESI can trade in $50s within next 3-5 years or in 20s or over $100 - all depends on many factors. No way ESI will be sitting in 3-4 range in 2 years.
was pumping GPRO so much in CNBC that I decided to sell my position after earnings (64.22) and stay away for some time. Until now it was justified. GPRO was all the time under attack and still in there. I will probably bu it back in low 40s.
shorts push the price down selling shares from the left pocket to a right one in a hope to shake weak hands/hearts. as soon as those weak hands start to sell short are trying to buy before other traders come to the pie. The stock immediately jumps. Since longs sell their shares at the end of each mini trade shorts has some advantage. Then again and again. A winner here is whose computer is faster. Longs-retailers normally trade manually, that is why shorts are winners. Each mini trade give them opportunity to cover 10-12K. The only problem is they have competitors when driving the price down because some retailers are trying to buy shares from them making their position more complicated. But all in all shorts are gradually covering. Despite shorts drove the price from 6 to below 3 only 2.5 weeks ago i.e. they spent a lot of valuable shares I expect a short interest will be lower in 5 days than before and it is definitely lower now (we will learn 2 weak ago situation in 5 days).
okay, go back to 2009 and take a look say at SGY. I picked this stock around $3 in March 2009 and sold out 6 months later for 18.30 with 6 gold gain. Oil in those time frames marched from 51 to 67. Then SGY was taken to 50.
Today SGY is below $5 again i.e. 90% down.
PVA, SD, KEG, GDP, etc. are heavy loaded with debt, LOOSING money, do not have CASH and most likely have a small chance to survive should oil either goes down further or stay at this price range for a year or so (I'm pretty sure both scenarios are very possible).
1. CVEO does not depend on oil only.
2. There is no a direct tough dependency between oil price and CVEO cash flow though there is a correlation.
3. CVEO debt is not overwhelming and easy manageable (at least within next 2-3 years).
A big difference is not it?
At the same time CVEO shares lost 96% i.e. more than any pre BK stock while CVEO BK is not even on a horizon.
I agree should this situation with commodities (not only oil) lasts for over 3 years CVEO can find itself in a big trouble. But in those times 95% of oil production stocks will be in BK, oil production will shrink so much that oil will go up again.
Mr Market in general is a bunch of the WS deep pocket criminals. How can I agree with the so-called Mr. market when e.g. LVS stock was $2 in March 2009 and then "suddenly" $20 only 6 month later. Nothing changed within these 6 months in terms of fundamentals, earnings, etc.
You hope for the worst ever scenario. If it is a case all Canadian oil/gas stocks will be in BK court and Canada will be in a huge recession. Same for US oil/gas industry. Possible? Theoretically speaking yes. But in this case many high flies like NFLX, FB, AMZN, and major indexes will lose 70-90% too i.e. a situation will become much worse than in 2008. Possible. Theoretically speaking yes.
any business (income related) property market value correlates to income size. I remember times (1993) when you could buy a medium size plaza in Toronto area for 600-700K because a vacancy rate was around 40%. Today the same plaza is valued at $12-18M (vacancy rate is 1-2%). Vacancy rate for CVEO is more or less in decent frames.
wrong example. You are trying to compare absolutely different stocks with different fundamentals. HERO recently announced BK, so why not to compare it to Exon Mobile? CVEO has zero chance for BK within next 2-3 years even though oil will be in low 30s. You forgot that CVEO has 2 year lease contracts with no cancellation right. Yes, for the next couple of years CVEO will be balancing on current earnings i.e. able to pay all its duties, manage debt, etc. What can happen in 2 years nobody knows.
yes, but only after 6 months below $1. In this case CVEO can make a RS. Big deal! Oil is down for a long haul, not for several weeks or a couple of months. Big guys do it by intention. As for me the lower the price the better because my core position is free (cost out) while I preserve cash for a big scale buy as soon as I got a feeling that commodities hit a bottom (probably they do it 2-4 times). I have a nice list of commodity stocks that lost for the last 12-16 months between 40% and 95% and that will come back to their 12-16 month ago digits as soon as oil/other commodities come back. The only question is how long it takes. JMHO: not less than 1.5-2 years.
CVEO can be taken to absurd sub dollar level. We saw this kind of games in 2008-2009 when reputable stocks were taken below basement to gain then 1000-2000% within less than 1 year (LVS e.g.).
From 27 to 1.30 within 1 year! Wow! If CVEO comes back to 27 from a current level it is 2000%.
As I stated earlier those who are behind this huge debacle are accumulating shares.
This chance is buying its competitors. Who are they? FSLR, SPWR, CSIQ and partially SCTY. This is it. The first 3 have a cumulative MC of $9B. SUNE can offer 16-17B to buy them and probably succeeds if those who are behind SUNE can use both financial and political pressure. 16-17B is a pocket change for guys behind SUNE especially if they consider SUNE as a global project. Who is behind SUNE we do not know and probably won't know for a long time. I can not exclude it can be Rockefeller or same size group. We know that miracles never happen. SUNE transformation from almost nothing to huge company with unlimited financing is a miracle if we do not consider it as the WS global project to come to a new energy era. Almost a year ago Rockefeller group announced leaving oil business and coming to clean energy. Probably SUNE is their test in this new area.
to get filled.
6.5 years ago 3.50 was a price I bought CENX. It is funny if a history repeats itself.
Al prices will continue deteriorate, I see a bottom around $0.6/lb i.e. close to historical bottom.