SOL will come back to 5.75-6.00 in 3-6 weeks, not earlier. Shorts who are mostly secondary buyers and who took oversized short positions have to cover without substantial price increase. At the same time a 4.6-4.8 range can be reached within several days. Moreover another drop to $4-4.10 is also very possible. Take a look at SPWR e.g. The stock was 28 prior to secondaries. It was dropped almost immediately to 21 i.e. 25% and still (after 6 weeks) below her top price. Same happened to CSIQ. Unless SOL announces some really good development 3-6 weeks waiting to return to previous top is almost a mandatory.
probably good buy. If SOL marches to 5.80-6.00 before October $5 call OE you can make from 300
to 400%. Actually I consider a chance of this event as 40-50%.
Sept. $5 call OE will happen in a week and probability the stock finishes below$5 is almost 100%. That is why we have a zero size bid and desperately low $0.05 ask.
For the time being the highest probability to make money on options is buying April 2014 $5 calls. There are over 2 quarters ahead, SOL will turn itself in a profitable company and the market can double or even triple a current share price. Let's say SOL reaches $11.5 to April 2014 (only 170% up from current temporary and artificially depressed digits and less than 100% from 3 days ago level). BTW: if you think it is a way too difficult just take a look at SOL recent performance: less than 6 months ago it was $1.3 and 2.5 months ago only $2. So if you buy call options now your gain will be
$5 April 2014: current ask 0.85; potential gain 7.5 fold (650%)
$7.5 April 2014: current ask is 0.40; potential gain 10 fold (900%)
will hit $9 before April 2014. with my 0.30 buy it is going to be 500% gain i.e. the same as yours when you bought $5 calls for 0.75. But if SOL hits $11-12 (I consider it with 30-40% of probability) my gain will be over 2000%. So my approach is more risky than yours but in the best case scenario it makes me huge amount of money. In a worst case, say the stock hits only $7 say to Jan-Feb 2014 (probability 70-80%) April 2014 7.5 call options will be priced in 1.30-1.50 range and I will sell 50% to cost out an initial investment+take out some profit off the table. Nevertheless you choice is good. I had a 0.7 buy order too for your options but my order did not get filled.
The company made secondaries and the stock now is 30% down from its recent top. The company restructures herself to PV solar industry. We will watch the same as SOL trading pattern with huge short covering taking place. Let it several days/weeks to stabilize in low 7-s and then only a sky will be a target. As for SOL all gaps are filled besides $2.9 range but this one is not reachable under any circumstances. Shorts do not have enough power and dry powder to bring SOL so low unless SOL announces really bad news. I think today SOL already hit an intermediate bottom of 4.08. May be double or triple bottom is ahead as it were in previous times but this is it. As for now SOL is growing and expanding faster than ANY China and US based PV solar company becoming the biggest player among China 11 listed in US markets. If you couple it with being fully booked until end of 2013, a probable Q3 and for sure Q4 profitability and fast growing Japanese exposure, I do not think SOL's share price of $4.25 reflects anything besides momentum trading.
I bought calls Apr 2014 $7.5 for $0.3 and Jan 2014 $5 for 0.50. I hope to sell them with 5-10 fold gain.
I already played SOL calls buying Oct 2013 $2.5 for 0.20 in April 2013 and sold them recently for $2 with 900% gain (could have sell for $3 but did it too premature). Even after huge drop on SOL proce they are now trading $1.80.
if you can read charts a current SOL trading pattern is a classical pros. short covering while holding the price down. Since SI grew dramatically for the last several days it should covered slowly and reliably - takes time. The best decision now - JMHO is buying call options that are extremely cheap. Yesterday and today was actually panic option sell off. I bought a lot April 2014 and Jan 2014 calls. If things go as I count it is gonna be 5-10 fold gain.
If you noticed SOL was under heavy selling for several days prior to secondaries. This action was nothing more than a short sell against the box i.e. those secondary buyers shorted the stock being aware that they can cover using shares issued by the company. As always some crooks joined the party. That is why so huge overreaction that in turn opened a rare buying opportunity. Even brief overview SOL and e.g. YGE indicates that if YGE priced right in 5.60, SOL should be 10 at least. SOL was laggard for a long time, then caught up a pack. Now it is again a laggard. As I stated earlier it will take form several days to several weeks, may be a couple of months to speed up a pack again. 70-80% probability that SOL will pre-announce next earnings beating a guidance both in revenue and GM. The next round of earnings will start in a months while pre-announcement will follow in a month and half i.e. in 6-7 weeks. To this time the stock will be in $6 range at least. Then it will pop to $7.5-8 overnight and fast leaps to 9-9.5 within next several days. This is how I see SOL development.
no, SOL won't go to 5+ in no time. It will take a real time, probably from 4-5 days to 2-3 weeks. All solars are in a definite correction stance right now after a tremendous rally. Depending on a stock a correction scale can be between 15 and 40%. SUNE already 25% down from a recent top, TSL only 8%, CSIQ 17%, SOL 25%, SPWR 17%, etc.
The most important issue is: those long terms holders should not worry et all -all the above-mentioned stocks will make you 2.5-3 fold compared to current digits within next 12-18 months.
your approach makes sense but you have also to take to account that company is fully loaded with orders and need cash to fulfill them. Taking another 70M from the bank is not the best decision because a debt load is pretty high already and its maintenance is becoming more expensive. I agree SOL did it too early. I anticipated secondaries in 7-8 range. Actually it does not matter - the stock will continue rally as other "dilutors" do. It will probably take several days/weeks to come back to 6. No way solar energy goes to a wrong direction. Big leading China solars including SOL will prosper, will be profitable probably in 2013 and as always it will be reflected in share price well in advance.
I doubt about tomorrow's $5 - it should take several days for shorts to cover but within next 10 trading sessions the stock will come back to 5.5 range that means for me 150% gain on call options bought today.
Good luck to all including bashers (I hope your employer will pay you a couple of pennies more for every post, though all of you in my ignore list).
welcome please. I sold out TSL in $12 range including call options. $10 range would have been a great come back though I doubt it will be taken so low.
with a plenty of cash TSL does not need secondaries (for the time being and a current price at least). I'd rather expect secondaries for TSL in 25-30 range.
$30 is a low end in my 12-18 month target.
SOL made an expected dilution. Nothing special. An actual dilution is 22% taking into account warrants. a classical market overreaction + unique opportunity to play call options that were crushed over 50-60% today. The same scale of dilution for SUNE brought the stocks only 5%. SOL will be taken back to 5.5 range within next 10 days. In terms of call options it means a gain of 150%.
12-18 month target is $18-20 at low end and 28-30 at a high one. With GM over 16-17% it should be highly profitable stock (not less than 0.80-0.85/share). The above-mentioned GM will be reached within next 2 quarters. The market bakes in all future achievements always in advance. Also 12-18 months targets for best China solars are (low end):
LDK will probably end in BK court.