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alex_iff 210 posts  |  Last Activity: May 3, 2015 2:01 AM Member since: Jun 19, 2008
  • Reply to

    very boring trading in a narrow

    by alex_iff Feb 20, 2015 12:17 PM
    alex_iff alex_iff Feb 20, 2015 2:22 PM Flag

    today MMs do not let it a chance to go up despite an initial attempts to approach $4. They hit the bid all the time and gradually dropping the price along with oil though CVEO and oil do not correlate in terms of timing. Volume is low that tells the story: people either fully invested and just hold shares tight while MMs are playing between left and right pockets to manipulate a price down. What I do not get is why so much down today. Nobody can win from this pressure on a green day.

  • price range -exactly as expected due to OE event today. A major task for MMs (call writers) is holding the stock at any price below $4. The are doing it successfully. Unless smth. extraordinary happens CVEO can finish today at any price below 4. The lower the bigger gain for $6 put option buyers. But they can gain only if they bought options cheaper than $2. A history tells over 90% of a current SI on a put side were bought a while ago for $2+. So I almost do not see here gainers among option buyers besides call and put writers.

  • alex_iff alex_iff Feb 19, 2015 6:10 PM Flag

    I mentioned it (a fact of Greeny buys CVEO shares like crazy) several times within last 1.5 months. David E. is a fighter by his nature (it is bad in general for a stock market trader). He was phucked with his CVEO strategy and as a real fighter took a decision to stay up to the very end. Comparing a size of his find a CVEO market cap is small. It means D.E. is able to play this stock at his own will in a wide range. A current short interest is less than Greeny long position. He pressed the price down to pick cheaper shares (I already posted that he needs 16-22M to gain a control in the company). From a certain time (as soon as he fills all the position planned) he will be interested in share price rise. When it starts and at what scale nobody knows. My estimation indicates that for the time being an average Greenlight CVEO buy price is $8-8.5.
    JMHO: CVEO can hit 8-10 within THIS 2015 year.

  • alex_iff by alex_iff Feb 19, 2015 3:40 PM Flag

    The stock will be held a bit below $4 to make max amount of call option buyers to suffer while put $6 options buyers will gain a lot (those who bought puts 4-6 months ago of course). Next week CVEO will continue climbing. Knowing the above-mentioned stuff I sold out all my SVEO shares yesterday in 4.02-4.05 range and bought them back this morning in 3.77-3.81.

  • alex_iff alex_iff Feb 19, 2015 3:35 PM Flag

    correction: "from Dec 2014".

  • alex_iff alex_iff Feb 19, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    Greenlight did not increase her position from Sept 2014 (at least there is no official SEC filing). Go to any source and you will find that Greeny OFFICIALLY owns the same position. At the same time no doubt this hedge fund buys CVEO. Let's wait for some time for a new filing.

  • Reply to

    All about getting back into the $5 to $10 range

    by jjjjjm1965 Feb 12, 2015 9:52 AM
    alex_iff alex_iff Feb 12, 2015 5:52 PM Flag

    this is more reasonable approach. Looking at potential 2015 earnings I do not see any chance to reach a price than $8 that is still more than 100% from now on.

  • Reply to

    Impressive 13g just out

    by jjjjjm1965 Feb 11, 2015 11:59 AM
    alex_iff alex_iff Feb 12, 2015 5:49 PM Flag

    no, addition only less than 0.5%. Go to insider box and find out a previous ownership of 5.35% (from Sept. 2014). Anyway, a little bit was added.

  • Reply to

    All about getting back into the $5 to $10 range

    by jjjjjm1965 Feb 12, 2015 9:52 AM
    alex_iff alex_iff Feb 12, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    Yes, it is possible that I will miss an intraday rally, that is why I said this kind of approach is a rather art than science. Statistically I'm right on this kind of trades in 70% of ins/outs that is more than justified to use this technique. The only disadvantage you have to stare at a screen instead of doing smth. else.
    As for your 30+ please be serious. Oil is down for a reason (no matter which one political, economical, etc.) so CVEO is too and way up is very tricky and long. CVEO made all right moves ignoring Jana and Einhorn BS transformation ideas. Downsizing is a smart action. The next move will be some kind of re-profiling, say suggesting accommodation for hunters, fisherman, etc. They know what is better for them, not for hedge funds. Nevertheless
    I know what D. Einhorn temper is, his guy never give up i.e. I'm sure he is trying to buy as many shares as he can and play his game with the company.

  • Reply to

    All about getting back into the $5 to $10 range

    by jjjjjm1965 Feb 12, 2015 9:52 AM
    alex_iff alex_iff Feb 12, 2015 11:51 AM Flag

    I'm getting a fun watching this "intense trading". So obvious accumulation takes place that even an a complete idiot can see it. After a sudden 10-12% one day rally and almost 40% from 2.75 to 3.85, the stock artificially held down despite 6:1 buy/sell ratio. The stock suddenly became sensitive to oil price (on a way down of course) and reacted to the same issue very unwillingly on oil way up.
    JMHO: we are in a verge of a major breakthrough to upside with no respect how oil will behave besides may be a dramatic drop to 40 or below. Does it possible? Everything is possible in 100% manipulated markets. I'm still prefer trading instead of buy/hold approach. Today I sold all my position at 3.80 and bought it back fro 3.70. Not too much of gain on 20K shares within a single trade but if you do it every single day (besides obvious straight upside days) it dramatically drops your average buy price. Mine one is already below $2.20. a strategy is simple: you have all your position overnight, then if stock goes down you hold and wait for a changing a direction. When stocks goes up you wait for a top and sell, then reload lower. I understand it is not an easy to find a top/bottom, riding waves is rather an art than a science but with a certain experience you gain more than just buy and hold.
    Good luck to all longs.
    My bet that within this 2015 CVEO hits $8 while my average buy price comes to $1.

  • this CITI "pressure" about $20 oil price. I feel that the author (CITI) got a fever due to a bad weather. A simple calculation set that 80% of all oil/gas companies will go under if/when oil hits $20. America will lose over 2M jobs in the best case scenario. Do not forget that many indirectly tied industries will get a huge hit too. Definitely there is a positive moment cheap gas, better shape of auto industry, a bit better consumer demand but this advantage won't compete with a loss. Should America were only oil importer it would have been good but today America extract more oil than Saudi and Russia. I was generally short on oil for the last 4 months but as soon as GS announced that oil should drop below 40 (in those times oil was 45) I covered all my shorts and went long. The only stock that did not justify my expectations was CVEO -a gain less than 30%. All others brought me 50% average and 3 stocks doubled from my buy price. Now I'm starting to take a profit. sold out OAS this morning, decreased SLCA and several other stock positions. Today's CITI "song" about $20 tells me that I'm wrong in my last move and should have held tight all oil related shares. Okay, I will reload later.
    As for CVEO the stock is trading too cheap with no respect to oil price. $55 or $25 do not matter for CVEO now. That is why I believe CVEO will hit 5-6 prior to (may be?) correction time. Even from TA point of view CVEO RSI is only 46 i.e. a way up to 75-80 (overbought) is all ahead.

  • Reply to

    sold out

    by alex_iff Feb 9, 2015 12:01 PM
    alex_iff alex_iff Feb 9, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    probably you are right on CVEO. Actually I lost nothing and rather made a small profitable swing trade. some time ago I made a guess that Einhorn is in a buying mode though nobody (besides smith. poster) knows it for sure. Oil stocks made a huge rally for the last week or so. Some stocks doubled. I took a chance and bought some of them almost in a bottom, unfortunately bot too much shares. for example among my Canadian stock picks are LTS (bought 0.87), BBI (0.22), LEG (1.77) and several others. I also sold out OAS this morning (run from 12.60 to 19.40 within 10 days is too extended to continue holding).

  • Reply to

    sold out

    by alex_iff Feb 9, 2015 12:01 PM
    alex_iff alex_iff Feb 9, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    Agree with you guys. Came back 3.68.

  • alex_iff by alex_iff Feb 9, 2015 12:01 PM Flag

    right now for 3.72 (average buy price was 3.15). I will re-enter again at a lower price. CVEO will be in 8-10 range within this 2015.

  • with revenue 800M and a tiny almost does not existing GM i.e. Rev is only 25% of MC. I see absolutely no reason to consider P as an undervalued stock, it valued rather too rich even now in 15 range. I would have considered buying it only well below 10 (trading is something else, I did today 2 trades on a long side, last one from 14.95 to 15.36).

  • this stock is still in 45 range. A right price is $4-5 according to the company performance. All the share price was granted to the stocks in expectations of future delivery. Nothing was delivered. no touch from my side besides day trading until it hits $5.

  • Reply to

    Just waiting for the news to break.......

    by sk_wilson Feb 6, 2015 3:39 PM
    alex_iff alex_iff Feb 6, 2015 8:30 PM Flag

    nothing wrong with the stock. The only problem is poor visibility due to 2 company integration. Even earnings were mixed enough. Next Q QRVO reports as a new company. In terms of correlation between earnings and share price (as for me) it is still a bit too high. I would have bought the stock with my "open heart" in $40 range.
    disclosure: was in RFMD from 4.65 to 13.12. Then sold it out.

  • Reply to

    already started to feel comfortable with my

    by alex_iff Feb 6, 2015 5:03 PM
    alex_iff alex_iff Feb 6, 2015 5:19 PM Flag

    why do my amount of shares is important for you? Everybody trades according to his/her account size. Somebody has 500 shares, somebody 100K. All depends.

  • alex_iff alex_iff Feb 6, 2015 5:17 PM Flag

    it is not entirely right. Nothing can be compared to FED and related bank books.

  • alex_iff alex_iff Feb 6, 2015 5:16 PM Flag

    explanation: the market always works on anticipation, not on actual results. Anticipation was poor, the stock was plunged. Now it turned out that a situation is not as bad as market crooks thought and the stock was taken up. The next portion of good news will bring it to 12-13. Step ny step the stock will come back to 50-60 (may be within 1 year or a bit longer).

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