all depends on your time horizon. In general any price including 40 is good for making money if you are willing to wait for a certain time. I for one prefer to pick the bottom or a trending up stocks. Sometimes a bottom can be doubled or tripled. A recent bottom of $19 (Jan 2015) had the same low sense as recent's drop in price from 40 to 26 i.e. the WS sentiment is much more important than actual business achievements. so where is the bottom? I think in $21-22 area. May be a bit lower. An actual bottom will be reached either before or on a day of Q2 announcement i.e. within next 1-1.5 month. I will be a definite buyer in 21-22 area though if I get a feeling that the stock can be taken lower I will refrain from buying.
what are you going to write them about? What kind of offer revision do they need? I'm itching to buy EJ, I never ever watched a situation like this one i.e. 20% discount. normally the stock under buyout trades 3-4% below buyout price gradually approaching it. Here we are seeing an opposite situation. Looks like the WS does not believe in buyout.
you are a great "optimist" though may be you are right. News never were a moving force in a stock market because news for everybody is old data for the WS. In a case news contradict thew WS sentiment news "suffer". As of today the WS is negative to vast majority of China based stocks with no respect how successful their business. It is more political than economical issue and will be continued. Even though EJ, etc. will beat in all directions their stocks will be held down substantially vs their US based counterparts. The only right way is leaving US markets totally.
EJ is sitting now almost 20% below offer price. If I were sure a buyout is a case it is the best time to buy. At the same time today's PR looks very suspisious for me. Looks like CEO wants to revise buyout offer to lower digits.
stated that OCN will be swinging around 10 for some time dues to huge open interest. Nearest OE again suggests that OCN should finish in next 2 weeks around 10 that is so obvious max pain. This time should OCN drops below 9.50 fast enough I will be a definite call option buyer or put option seller (all depends).
I played this option game with OCN 5 times in a row and all 5 times were winning for me though besides 1 really good entry I made not more than 40-50% in other entries.
Take a look at fundamentals. Only overheated market along with being the WS lover let this stock fly in the sky. Every earnigs are disappointment, stock drops, them recovering again. As soon as the WS stop loving the stock will find a bottom where its belongs.
how long? My estimation was from several weeks to several months. 2 weeks passed from the time I made an estimation and posted it here. Within this time frame the stock was held in a range of 3.85 -5.15 (I expected 4-5 range) . Should "new" news come again the stock will jump to $5 and will be violently retraced again. Be prepared for a long haul of torture.
Any even a small hint on short covering will cause an explosion in share price and buyer enthusiasm. At the same time shorts can not short more due to 2 fundamental reasons:
1. even 100% the WS affiliated broker feels very uncomfortable to lend fake shares in a situation like that: obvious business turn around.
2. shorts understand that the company is not going to die -patient is getting healthier. They were and still are trying to provide poison pills but it does not work anymore. The deeper shorts sink the less chance they have enough air to reach a surface alive.
JMHO: being in short shoes i.e. understanding all the failure I would have ignited a volume in upside direction. Many traders who bought in low 4s and 5s will take a profit in 6-7 range. We are talking about several million shares. Better to cover fast in 7-8, even 9-10 range than trying to hold the price in 4-5 range while a business situation is getting better every single day. Not covering in 7-8 will force shorts to cover in 14-15 or higher.
nope, you stated a right thing ...besides a small fact. The stock is sitting in $4-5 range while all earnings, fundamentals and other nonsense fit rather for $30-35 stock (in a current market) and for $10-12 stock in a depressed market. Nobody tells about coming back to $100+.
a problem is you can not participate in swings - they are taking place between sessions. The only win-win (or loss-loss depending on timing) situation is buy-hold.
I do not understand how buyout can affect share price increase. It is obvious that should the stock price reaches say $8.5 the CEO won't be allowed to buy it for 7.38. I remember when DELL announced a buyout of his company for $12 (in those times the stock price was 8.50), the stock immediately jumped to 11.90 and then reached several times $14. Michael DELL was forced to increase the offer price.
In a case of EJ I feel there is something not kosher in a stock trading. when the WS does not want to let the company leave the market they inflate the price and open legal litigations.
busy. No doubt they will take over longs and bring the price down. May be not tomorrow but within next several days. Why? Because this is a matter of life or death for shorts. If they let the stock go over $6 we will see a lot of new buyers and traders. Do not forget that ESI is not AAPL or MSFT in terms of volume, shares outstanding and $$ traded within a day. Shorts here are not such powerful as for big stocks. They can spend 10-15M for reaching their goals but not 150-200M.
You ask why YHOO does not show positive news. Answer is simple: because YHOO is the WS affiliated entity like FB, TWTR, AMZN, etc. Just think: TWTR (whose debt ranked as junk) has a market cap bigger than Ford. FB market cap bigger than all US automotive + aircraft industry. Rarest BS.
Good plan. The only problem is it helps to drive the price up only within short time frame. As I stated many times the WS hates "for profits" and have enough power to hold them down with no respect how they perform. APOL new target was set - $6 making this stock actually the same as ESI. All the fundamentals were ignored totally.
in my watch list of 800 stocks only 12 are in green. ESI is 2% up today but 8% down for the last days. Though a general market is in a favor of shorts they are unable to ignite a volume on a sell side.
I made a small round trip trade today from 4.11 to 4.38 making my average core position buy price already below 2.80.
The more I analyse a situation the more I tend to believe that ESI is a horse that can help you become richer within next couple of years.
I do not see a connection between Shanghai stocks exchange and EJ. When this stock exchange grew over 100% EJ dropped. EJ is not listed in there. A current EJ price is below any reasonable valuation let alone 5-6 range that was ridiculous. A current price is justified only in a situation of a huge crisis such as 6 years ago. Any drop below certain level I will buy. As for changing a buyout offer to a lower price, honestly I doubt. Of cpourse having a sweeping power Zhou can make $4 offer. Why not? But massive lawsuits and a growing distrust to Chinese stocks won't let it come through.
within last 12 months the biggest ESI SI was in Sept/Oct 2014 - 13.746M, the lowest in March 2015 -9.632M.
From March 2015 SI is gradually growing reaching a current 11.217M top.
Officially there is no naked short shares but it is obvious a naked short selling is in effect too. Last settlement date is June 15,2015 while a major positive news came on May 29 and June 12.
It tells me that shorts were forced to short more to stop a rally started. I'm underlying - they were FORCED, otherwise the stock could have jumped to $10+ in a very fast manner.
Now they (shorts) are trying to force longs to sell shorting even more. Shorts have no chance to cover with a profit without help from longs. That is why they will try to bring the price as low as possible using all means including mass media. People tend to get panicked and this is the only hope of short sellers. In reality 11M shares short is only 11.2x4.3=$48M - not a big amount for deep pocket shorting hedge fund/s. since an average short price is around 11-12, they can feel more or less comfortable covering say below 8. A problem is only a mass psychology. If they are able to hold the stock price below 5-6 and cover gradually they would have done it.
Unfortunately for shorts
1. they do not have enough time (good news can follow much faster)
2. any good news can spike the price again and every time good news hit a wire investors feel more and more confidence about turnaround and start buying more and more shares
That is why they need to bring the price as low as possible, ignite a volume and cover faster.
There is another danger for shorts tied to a general market which is overheated. Almost always when a general market starts to slide considerably, all educational stocks are growing due to a well-known fact: crisis time rebalance a work force needs.