as soon as something important is posted it is getting deleted immediately. I think it is a part of very dirty game around CSIQ. If you type on a site it deletes immediately. If you copy and paste it takes 30=40 seconds before deleting (text must be red and assessed).
how low? Any price you can imagine. It can be 19, 15, or 11. I can admit it can be taken to 7-8. You have to understand that there is no anymore such a thing as fundamentals. disconnection between fundamentals and price, between economy and stock market sometimes reaches huge proportions. As soon as majority of investors lost orientation a situation changes momentarily. I remember October 2003 a general market turn around. I can give you many examples how a stock that was right priced according to phony analysts suddenly makes 300% within weeks and then continue moving north making 100-200% more without changing fundamentals. TSLA was held in 30 range for years and then suddenly . . . -you know an outcome.
Same for CSIQ. Like it not CSIQ will be taken up with big leaps and bounds in a wild trading pattern. Where is the bottom is the only my question.
I remember my first buy in Dec 2012 for 1.36. 2 years later SOL jumped to over 6.5 (5 fold) and slipped back. SOL as a company in 2012 and SOL today is a big difference. If 2012 price was right, today's 1.35 means SOL is 3-5 fold undervalued. Let alone a chance for a potential insolvency (otherwise it would have been $10 stock already). How low SOL can be taken? $1? 0.8? Downside potential is almost zero. Though I prefer CSIQ and JKS due to their current stability and probably will buy TSL/JKS soon I think SOL as a short term investment in current prices is a the best choice.
Disclosure: bought 1.27.
walking down. Probably a very good buy lies in low 6s while just a good buy is right now. The stock must triple from current digits in no time as soon as crooks decide to play it up. I remember the same pattern in 2013 -TSL was held in 4-5 area for a long time and then suddenly rallied to 18. This time TSL will be rallied higher, something to 24-25.
the "market" does not care of fundamentals, current or future. The only thing that matters is sentiment i.e. if the market thinks that in a very fistant future (may be in 5-6 years) SCTY will be OK while CSIQ will lose it is more than enough to kill CSIQ today. In reality even the above-mentioned does not matter too.
with a current rate of short covering market criminals need from 2 to 3 weeks approximately to finish their job. If a volume drops they need something a month or so. Be prepared for a "sudden" drops and pops to force you to buy (on pops) or sell (on drops). I expect a price stagnation with a small up or down trend within next 2-3 weeks unless new considerable event come. For example if the company announces 2-3Gw new projects you will see a huge buying pressure and a temporary rally from 23 to 26-27 will be imminent with subsequent returning back to 23-24. Secondary will change nothing, may be spark a rally too (certainty). Buyout is impossible in these below basement prices unless a buyer suggests $60+ (unlikely). Shorts know that there is not buyout in a horizon, they know any bite of insider info. Any general market debacle will immediately spark a sell-off. Shorts must cover and the lower the better for them.
do you know how a pros. short covering occurs? This is definitely not a panic short covering but rather slow and sure one. Those who took huge short position were not naive retail players, they knew how to sell short and how to cover. My the only question was and still remains what was an underlying reason of such a severe hit. I have no doubt that if no buyout, no secondaries, shorts will cover gradually without letting the price to explode. A size of entity that shorted CSIQ after fantastic achievement should be GS or/and Carlyle.
we are watching short covering of some kind of excessive shorting. As I already stated over 10M shares were shorted for the last 3 weeks. If the company issues secondary I do not think it is going to be more than 6-7M shares and cheaper than 25. The stock is swinging in a very narrow 23.1-23.25 range. Any 15 cent move up is going on twice amount of shares compared to the same scale of move down. It means shorts cover 2 shares while selling 1 upon during each cycle. These shares they derive from unfortunate day traders and partially using their own accounts.
all 10 my sell orders are set between 56 and 84. The company works 24/7, hiring, demand exceeds supply (e.g. read today's news). All we watch now is an organized crime that can not last forever. The only thing I'm not sure is a timing. It can happen in 2 months or in 1 year. In Nov 2013 CSIQ was 16, 1 month later 32, then 1-1.5 months more and $43 (almost 3 fold). Today CSIQ is sitting on senseless $23 that reflects nothing besides the WS temporary wish. A situation can be changed at any given moment with 100-120% rally within days or few weeks. Oil/solar connection is a classical BS. You can invent how it works but it does not work in reality, otherwise we would have had yesterday a huge rally in solars instead of huge debacle. We are sitting on a big scam to force you out. The longer it lasts the bigger gain is ahead.
naked short selling. Just my assessment: 9-11M naked short shares from Nov 12 up to now + 3M officially shorted. To cover you need an adequate amount of new shares issued. Today CSIQ and JKS almost met. for me it looks so ridiculous that I have nothing to say. JKS being a great low cost Chinese company has much worth balance sheet, more problematic earnings taking into account a recent move to a kind of Yieldco aliance, less diversification, lower GM, etc. Crazy market.
everything can happen. Have you ever thought that CSIQ will be trading in PE of 5-5.5. We've got it right now. If 5 is possible why 4 is not? As I stated earlier within certain time frames the company fundamentals and stock can be disconnected dramatically. It is a high time to use it. The only small reminder: should CSIQ trades as an average commodity stock it must be priced in $77-80 range.
oil-solar reasoning as a solar debacle is just a classical BS. As I already explained the lower oil the better for solar due to decreasing transportation expenses in all stages from manufacturer to installation spot. Calculation tells that we are talking about 2% saving.
considerable increasing CSIQ position. What is going on makes no sense unless the market is preparing for a huge crash. As always market crooks force everybody to sell squeezing people up to the last cent. I've seen those games many times both for a general market and for selected stocks. The only problem where is bottom and how many times this bottom will be revised. Since a current $22 is the same absurd as $15 a bottom can be still ahead. Say you go for a car to dealership and find out that say brand new 2015 Lexus 3.5 on sale for $5K. As for me 5K or 6K or 4K are all the same compared to real price of 40K. We have the same situation here. The stock trades at a crazy discount of 80%. Who cares if it 80% or 85% - if you believe that fairness sometimes happens in a stock market you can buy it now with both hands or ... take a chance to wait for deeper plunge. I will wait a bit longer because already have a nice position, unfortunately at 27. Though I'm not too angry because my last sale was in 38-40 area I'm still in a big gain for the last 2 years. Initially I wanted to have only costed out shares but now I decided to invest the same amount that I put in April 2013 i.e. my shares amount can be doubled compared to a current position.
Any thoughts on a bottom? 22? 20? 16?
the best indicator is a stock market. As a rule the stock market reacts to good/bad change in economy well in advance. Major indicators/indexes DOW, NASDAQ, etc. are in all time high now. On the other hand these indexes reflect comparetively small amount of companies. I have over 800 stocks in my watch lists and statistically over 600 of them are considerably down for the last 6-20 months, some of them over 50-75%; 100-110 did not changes too much swinging up or down within 10-20% while only 50-60 are growing. These 50-60 are big/middle caps with mixed fundamentals (good one like AAPL, GOOG, FFIV, etc., problematic like BABA, LVS, etc., poor like NFLX, AMZN, TWTR, etc.) but they are growing no matter what is going on with their business.
Oil drop is more political than economical issue. Supply/demand never was a base for oil pricing.
If oil drop is an indicator of bad economy the stock market would have been down in a matter of 50% already. go back to 2007-2009 and you will see it.
1. natural gas/coal price is still in the same level or even growing from the recent very bottom.
2. for the last 15 years gas/coal price did not change (even lower) while oil skyrocketed 15 fold. Ask yourself why.
you should not re-post these obvious facts. A problem is the "market" ignores good things and concentrate on bad even though bad one does not exist. The market has an agenda, not a pros. analysis, the market is not an efficient in terms of adequate reaction to events. We have no idea what is behind so harsh reaction and a violent shorting of the best solar stock. We already discussed all possible reasons many times. The only entity that knows it exactly is the WS and probably the company too.
if secondary announced the stock will be rallying immediately. Why? Because it means the company made an arrangement with shorts: they get away with the money, they do not have to cover and they have to stop selling. A soon as they stop short selling the stock like hot air bubble will go up.
1. oil will go down further and stay in there for a long haul
2. cheap oil does not mean cheap electricity. Why? Because oil does not participate in electricity generation directly or indirectly. As an example go and revise your electrical bill for the last 6 months. Oil dropped 40%. Your electrical bill in the best case scenario remain the same or increased.
3. do not try to justify directly or indirectly solar stock debacle with oil. Absolutely different things with a very narrow overlapping.