oil-solar reasoning as a solar debacle is just a classical BS. As I already explained the lower oil the better for solar due to decreasing transportation expenses in all stages from manufacturer to installation spot. Calculation tells that we are talking about 2% saving.
considerable increasing CSIQ position. What is going on makes no sense unless the market is preparing for a huge crash. As always market crooks force everybody to sell squeezing people up to the last cent. I've seen those games many times both for a general market and for selected stocks. The only problem where is bottom and how many times this bottom will be revised. Since a current $22 is the same absurd as $15 a bottom can be still ahead. Say you go for a car to dealership and find out that say brand new 2015 Lexus 3.5 on sale for $5K. As for me 5K or 6K or 4K are all the same compared to real price of 40K. We have the same situation here. The stock trades at a crazy discount of 80%. Who cares if it 80% or 85% - if you believe that fairness sometimes happens in a stock market you can buy it now with both hands or ... take a chance to wait for deeper plunge. I will wait a bit longer because already have a nice position, unfortunately at 27. Though I'm not too angry because my last sale was in 38-40 area I'm still in a big gain for the last 2 years. Initially I wanted to have only costed out shares but now I decided to invest the same amount that I put in April 2013 i.e. my shares amount can be doubled compared to a current position.
Any thoughts on a bottom? 22? 20? 16?
the best indicator is a stock market. As a rule the stock market reacts to good/bad change in economy well in advance. Major indicators/indexes DOW, NASDAQ, etc. are in all time high now. On the other hand these indexes reflect comparetively small amount of companies. I have over 800 stocks in my watch lists and statistically over 600 of them are considerably down for the last 6-20 months, some of them over 50-75%; 100-110 did not changes too much swinging up or down within 10-20% while only 50-60 are growing. These 50-60 are big/middle caps with mixed fundamentals (good one like AAPL, GOOG, FFIV, etc., problematic like BABA, LVS, etc., poor like NFLX, AMZN, TWTR, etc.) but they are growing no matter what is going on with their business.
Oil drop is more political than economical issue. Supply/demand never was a base for oil pricing.
If oil drop is an indicator of bad economy the stock market would have been down in a matter of 50% already. go back to 2007-2009 and you will see it.
1. natural gas/coal price is still in the same level or even growing from the recent very bottom.
2. for the last 15 years gas/coal price did not change (even lower) while oil skyrocketed 15 fold. Ask yourself why.
you should not re-post these obvious facts. A problem is the "market" ignores good things and concentrate on bad even though bad one does not exist. The market has an agenda, not a pros. analysis, the market is not an efficient in terms of adequate reaction to events. We have no idea what is behind so harsh reaction and a violent shorting of the best solar stock. We already discussed all possible reasons many times. The only entity that knows it exactly is the WS and probably the company too.
if secondary announced the stock will be rallying immediately. Why? Because it means the company made an arrangement with shorts: they get away with the money, they do not have to cover and they have to stop selling. A soon as they stop short selling the stock like hot air bubble will go up.
1. oil will go down further and stay in there for a long haul
2. cheap oil does not mean cheap electricity. Why? Because oil does not participate in electricity generation directly or indirectly. As an example go and revise your electrical bill for the last 6 months. Oil dropped 40%. Your electrical bill in the best case scenario remain the same or increased.
3. do not try to justify directly or indirectly solar stock debacle with oil. Absolutely different things with a very narrow overlapping.
I can not exclude that you are right. you can not fight a fraud and distortion. SUNE is the WS money laundering machine. But who said that i do not play SUNE. I trade SUNE 3-4 times per week on a day trading basis. I can not afford to hold SUNE overnight. I did the same with GTAT and it turned out I was right. GTAT made a BK statement during the day light, and fortunately I did not have the stock for the time it was done. I do not want to say that SUNE will go BK any time but who knows. Take a look at SI, it is already over 30% and growing every 2 weeks. Probably SUNE will be accelerated to 40-50-60 before a total collapse.
fundamentals and share price. The better stock the less correlation. It was done intentionally to discourage shareholders and to solve other tasks.
Question. where is the bottom?
Answer. Nobody knows besides those who fulfill a plan. Since earnings, business development, and nonsense like that do not matter anymore you can bring the share price to any digits. Do you remember CSIQ at $4-5 (BTW: my first buy was $4.40)? It can be taken again to single digits. How? Easy. Short (including naked) without stop and you will cause a sell off by scared longs.
I for one sold out CSIQ in 38-40 range, then waited until the stock dropped and took a position in 27 average. Now I'm already sitting on $3 loss and who said it is over. The street hates CSIQ because the company
1. transparent i.e. everybody can make DD
2. highly profitable
3. independent enough to play her own violin
4. debt is going down i.e. hitting the stock can not change too much CSIQ credit rate and ability to borrow.
No doubt that the above mentioned reasons are not the only one. Something is also brewing inside the company -we already discussed several pending events.
Stay with shares and buy more if you have a dry powder?
Sell in a hope to buy lower?
Sell and forget this sector buying instead a flying garbage like AMZN or TWTR?
Every investor can decide it for himself. As I stated above the stock can be taken to any price range even to single digits. Paid talking heads like Gordon who have an access to mass media and TV will justify anything using assumptions as argument against solid facts.
Should they decided to cut production next day they would have learned that they are not democratic country and needs to be forced to democracy like Libya.
may be. I considered Carlyle as a prime buyer. but now I do not think they are a reason number 1. The comp[any won't give up an ownership cheap. We all know that a right price for this stock NOW (without distant i.e. 2-3 year future benefits) is around 75-80. A typical buyout makes 20-30% premium to market value i.e. we are talking about $100 buyout. Absolutely impossible when the stock is sitting on $24. Unless the comp[any got some problems they won't agree for any price below 80. That is why a buyout is out of picture. The only real thing Carlyle can do is buying a lot more shares or play secondaries as a "buyer". I do not see a lot of shares to be bought within recent months and weeks. Instead I see a huge fast growing SI. That is why secondaries is main reason for a current pattern.
CSIQ was the first who implemented building and selling plants. CSIQ has the best contracts and reputation among all solars. I see no reason why a leader should become an outsider. As I said earlier there are several possible reasons for CSIQ underperforming others
1. secondaries, today it is major version.
2. no intention for Yeildco (actually CSIQ model is closer to Yieldco than any other solar stock has)
3. some problems with the WS (may be buyout issue, may be something else)
4. picking cheap shares (I initially thought about this one as major reason, now it is definitely is not a major reason)
I feel like a kid in a candy store. Current CSIQ valuation reminds me March 2009 when I bought LVS and several other stocks (e.g. current UAL). A 52 week low price below 25 for a stock making over $4 and progressing every single day can not be justified even in a deepest ever recession.
because the WS wants it down until CSIQ management complies with the WS order. All other reasons are non-essential. Even though CSIQ makes $10/share, the stock will be held down and paid analysts will be writing sell. You have to understand that the stock market is a home of the WS while you are a quest here. The WS set rules and force you to play by this rules. At the same time the WS took a privilege to change those rules exclusively for themselves.
If the WS plays by the rules you would have had now AMZN, NFLX in $10-12 range, TWTR at $2-3, etc. while CSIQ in $70-80.
Current market valuation is distorted to the benefit of the WS for certain stocks in a factor of 30+, typically 6-12.
Why do you think DELL left the WS? A major reason was Michael DELL got tired of manipulation being a permanent target for humiliation. When he He announced a buyout the stock was below $8. He suggested $14. The WS immediately started to yell that DELL want to steal brilliant company from shareholders buying it too cheap. In the other words the WS held stock below 8 and it was Okay, right priced, while DELL gave $14 and it was too cheap? This is an essence of the WS -criminality, lie, blackmail, etc. Believe me if CSIQ announces a buyout today for say $45 the WS will start yelling again that the company want to steal a gem from shareholders.
same thoughts. Unfortunately we shareholders experience a "twist in the wind" losing time and money. We as investors made a great job researching all solar companies and have chose the best one and we were punished in a more severe way than those who did nothing.
shorts like GS never play guess games. They know exactly what is going to happen. Likely the WS was trying to force the company for secondaries to
1. get commissions
2. short and then cover against the box.