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BlackBerry Limited Message Board

alex_iff 529 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Jun 19, 2008
  • alex_iff alex_iff Aug 9, 2015 2:26 PM Flag

    I like that people started to wise up but unfortunately many of you too late when the stock lost 58% from its top. Should you go 7-10 months back to this forum you will find the same thoughts and same doubts. I saw this creature as a money laundering scam and it looks like I'was right.

  • Reply to

    all media companies/stocks

    by alex_iff Aug 9, 2015 9:02 AM
    alex_iff alex_iff Aug 9, 2015 2:15 PM Flag

    I like your sense of humor. Let's go to real market. Say you want to buy XYZ company (does not matter private or public). How do you value it. Easy. A typical industry standard is 7-10 annual incomes or to be more precise 7-10 EBIDTA. A human active life span is 35-45 years. You want to amortize all the expenses within 7-10 years and then make a profit. How about LNKD with 400 years of paying off, how about NFLX with 300 years, etc.
    Yes, we have an overpriced general market while index stocks overpriced up to the bubble level.

  • are in a big bubble. TWTR also. Why on earth this stock should trade so high while GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, est. are sitting in 12-16 PE. Why on earth media stocks should have such an advantage vs. any hi-tech or industry one? We already had .coms bubble burst, now we it is a high time do the same for media stocks. Market cap of 18B for the company that loses money, increases debt it is too high. TWTR market cap is almost the same as Ford Motors one while real value can not be compared. I do not believe in a fairness of market but this valuation is ridiculous. JMHO: TWTR should trade in low single digits and sooner or later it will be in there unless something very positive happens. Of course you can count on the WS help but this is another story that has nothing common with real valuation.

  • bought around IPO time. Sold in low 40s. This is it. SCTY is on my watch list.
    JMHO:
    1. SCTY is overvalued fantastically. Just compare revenue and market cap.
    2. SCTY is not TSLA. Big difference. TSLA is unique with obvious earnings on a horizon, SCTY is one of many (FSLR, CSIQ, SPWR, etc.) and for the time being the weakest among therm.
    3. SCTY is similar to SUNE to a certain degree.
    4. Actually SCTY is held up due to legendary E. Musk.
    Resume: if by any reason something happens to E. Musk SCTY will be taken down 90% at least. If SCTY does not demonstrate a serious progress such as profitability within next 1-2 Qs the stock will be taken down substantially. SUNE is just a prime example.

  • Reply to

    Hard to believe numbers

    by turbo47 Aug 7, 2015 10:12 PM
    alex_iff alex_iff Aug 8, 2015 8:18 PM Flag

    "shorts by borrowing his own stock, can create an avalanche of price falling, and make money while the price is up, and make money when the price falls".
    They can not make money in both directions borrowing their own stock because their own shares are falling when they short the stock. They do can inflate a stock price upon covering "at box", then inflate the price and sell those shares. But not at the same time.
    Or may be I did not understand you correctly. Please elaborate in details what did you mean.

  • Reply to

    Hard to believe numbers

    by turbo47 Aug 7, 2015 10:12 PM
    alex_iff alex_iff Aug 8, 2015 8:10 PM Flag

    it called shorting against the box. It is a win-win game for bond holders. They always can cover at fix price unless they shorted more shares than they have a right to convert. When I see CD I always stay away from the stock on a long side. Shorting is okay.

  • alex_iff alex_iff Aug 8, 2015 7:06 PM Flag

    low RSI due to fast price drop. Should a drop were more smoothy we would not have so low RSI. There are computer trading programs that can lift RSI without lifting a share price. Okay they can temporary rise SP to 15.50-15.70. Then wait for another free fall to below $10-11. Actually I won't be too surprised if they drop the price to low single digits and hold in there long enough to force all longs to scream and sell on a huge loss. Being in investor shoes I'd never touch the stock with so poor fundamentals and crazy spending with no income.

  • Reply to

    The SUNE House of Cards

    by demerson09 Aug 8, 2015 10:25 AM
    alex_iff alex_iff Aug 8, 2015 7:00 PM Flag

    only yieldco sponsor can benefit while yieldco stock not.

  • Reply to

    The SUNE House of Cards

    by demerson09 Aug 8, 2015 10:25 AM
    alex_iff alex_iff Aug 8, 2015 10:41 AM Flag

    very good post. Exactly my thoughts. I was in in MEMS in 2013 and made a nice profit of 170% until it becomes SUNE. As soon as I understood a business model and games behind the scene I sold out my shares and started to watch. Then I posted several times a danger of holding SUNE that despite my warnings climbed from 15 to 33. I swing traded SUNE 10-12 times but never considered holding it more than 1-2 days. The worse results SUNE demonstrated, the more secondaries issued the better was share price. CNBC and mass media were "devil advocates". That is why the same guys who inflated SUNE now either unreachable or tell something inarticulate.

  • Reply to

    Here come the analysts downgrades

    by demerson09 Aug 7, 2015 12:08 PM
    alex_iff alex_iff Aug 8, 2015 10:31 AM Flag

    analysts always work as voltures trying to kill barely alive victim. Have you seen any downgrade only 3 days ago? Nope. My downgrades all over the last 6 months were not listen (LOL). It looks like certain the WS "structures" were taken off guard with this free fall. I see confused faces (unless they are better actors than Hollywood stars) all over CNBC and among management who are unable to say something serious besides regular blah-blah.
    It is more than obvious that it was a well-planned in advance short attack started formally after VLSR purchase. Moreover a scale of this attack is tremendous and money involved huge taking into account amount of shares for sale or/and short sale. It means no fast recovery on a horizon. In a distant future (say 2-4 months from no on) the stock can be taken in any direction but I tend to believe the next wave of bubbling procedure will continue. I agree -this is no blip on the screen, though there is small chance (may be 10-15%) that upon eliminating majority of longs the stock will come back to 30s pretty fast nominally initiated by any good news such as contract to install 4kw in a house of company janitor.

  • Reply to

    last crash 10 months, this 11 months

    by cashflowgems Aug 7, 2015 4:00 PM
    alex_iff alex_iff Aug 7, 2015 11:32 PM Flag

    you never know what can happen with AL prices within our life time unless you are 98+.
    All I can say $5 is not a bottom. This time the stock will be taken below %4 and may be even $3.
    2008-2009 debacle was something outstanding due to an actual crash of financial system and therefore a complete credit freezing. Many really good profitable stocks dropped 90-98% if they have a significant debt. Today a situation changed: only commodities down while others including indexes are artificially held up though several big cap stocks. We've got another wave of crisis but this time it started from commodities (last time financial stocks were a trigger). It is an interesting development, something new. Any idea how this crisis will develop?

  • Reply to

    Could this thing come back?

    by legendcruzer Aug 7, 2015 10:14 AM
    alex_iff alex_iff Aug 7, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    I already stated several time for the last month or so what I think. Shorts are institutional deep pocket players. They need to cover with a profit and they will do it unless a really big buyer who does not care of share price will come to the plate. We all know that ESI realistic price is between 12 and 18 depending on several circumstances. How these guys are going to cover it is their own problem. I'm not going to help them selling my shares.

  • Reply to

    Getting Back to Normal

    by mlr_neuro Aug 6, 2015 1:45 PM
    alex_iff alex_iff Aug 7, 2015 2:04 PM Flag

    guys, stop calming down yourself. Oil will be below $40, oil stocks will lose another chunk of their value. All commodities are down in a unique pace. A huge gap between general market indexes and commodities tells the story better than anything else.
    Bill Gross, money manager at Janus Capital Group Inc., said the global economy is “dangerously close to deflationary growth.”
    Once there is a “whiff of deflation, things tend to reverse and go badly,” Gross said Friday in a Bloomberg Radio interview with Tom Keene. Gross pointed to how the CRB Commodity Index isn’t just at a cyclical low, but lower than in 2008 when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. went bankrupt.
    The commodity markets tell a truer story of what is happening in the economy because they are subject to real-time supply and demand, Gross said. Oil, metals and crops have plunged as China’s economy has decelerated and gluts in multiple markets have further depressed prices.
    Be prepared for another leg down in general market and in commodities. It does not mean that CVEO will follow a suite because CVEO is fantastically undervalued already but . . . .

  • alex_iff alex_iff Aug 7, 2015 1:46 PM Flag

    Greenlight already made a big deal with CVEO losing 80-85%. SUNE is going to be his another success. Time to climb on SUNE wind tower and jump.

  • Reply to

    Call the Bottom here

    by demerson09 Aug 7, 2015 10:12 AM
    alex_iff alex_iff Aug 7, 2015 1:23 PM Flag

    your guess being based on nothing is good as everybody else one. TA do not work in a case of SUNE as they did not work on way up. Now RSI is below 13 that means SUNE is extremely oversold. To bring RSI to more decent 25-28 you need not too much of buying. Computers can do it easy almost without rising the price. In terms of fundamentals SUNE overvalued at any price, even in $3. Of course SUNE won't hit $3 in 1 drop. You will have a plenty of trading opportunities within next 3-12 months but a final accord will be BK. No one company can survive using a debt for operational activity, buying overvalued garbage, losing money in an increasing pace, etc. ,etc.

  • short position for SUNE - no shares to borrow. It looks like the WS monopolized a right to short this pos.

  • M.Fool regarding CENX, they suggest not to buy this stock. Normally when MF recommends something you should do an opposite move. I would like to buy CENX at half of a current $6 price. MF is always a contrarian indicator. Really fools.

  • alex_iff by alex_iff Aug 7, 2015 12:42 PM Flag

    getting #1 solar stock after CSIQ decided to follow Yieldco suit.
    US solar market is the strongest potentially while foreign companies are actually banned from any advantage (tariffs and other obstacles). FSLR has all credentials to become a monster company and stock: cash, credit, low debt, US based company, etc.

  • alex_iff by alex_iff Aug 7, 2015 12:17 PM Flag

    2 major hedge funds started to understand what scam they acquired and begun to sell. I wish them success in getting rid off this pos until it is too late.

  • alex_iff alex_iff Aug 7, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    nope! Though you never know -may be they are in verge of secondaries.

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