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ConocoPhillips Message Board

alexalekhine 201 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 17, 2015 6:25 PM Member since: Mar 22, 2000
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  • Reply to

    What's going on?

    by mollyabby28 Apr 17, 2015 1:28 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 17, 2015 6:25 PM Flag

    How exactly would they be "filling their pockets?"

    This stock seems to always sell of into earnings, doesn't it?

    Lots of people think the digital signage growth rate is not sustainable.

  • Reply to

    New CEO

    by innagrigorenko Apr 17, 2015 2:30 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 17, 2015 6:22 PM Flag

    No it does not.

  • Reply to


    by algo41 Apr 14, 2015 5:23 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 17, 2015 11:28 AM Flag

    Would the company refuse to take your phone call?

    I am hoping to visit their facility in Clearwater, FL the next time I am down there.
    It is long overdue, as my father lives in Largo, the town just south of Clearwater.


  • Reply to

    lets do some squabbling

    by s_lefkowitz Apr 15, 2015 12:25 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 16, 2015 1:05 PM Flag

    I believe that the adjusted number excluded the )non-cash) cost of stock option related compensation, which the SEC forces companies to include on the income statement. However, since it is non-cash, it is an "add back" when calculating Operating Cash Flow on the Cash Flow Statement.


  • alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 16, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    Thanks you for posting something without absurdity.

    However, I do not think that Cole was accounting for such a large portion of their cash flow as to take ARCP down to 80 cents per share from nearly the $1.10 area (does anyone remember exactly what guidance was before it got disavowed?) I seem to remember. That would be 30 cents.

    Now, if Cole is hemoraging (spelling) cash and we're talking about going from whatever it was earning not to zero but to some negative number, and you want to include that in an initial dividend run rate, then I think you could be pretty close.

    Heck, you could be pretty close even if Cole is cash neutral.
    It all depends on what they want the financial policy to be in terms of regaining credit ratings and deleveraging.

    Good post.


  • Reply to

    lets do some squabbling

    by s_lefkowitz Apr 15, 2015 12:25 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 15, 2015 7:22 PM Flag

    Are you measuring GAAP e.p.s. or "adjusted" e.p.s.


  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Apr 15, 2015 12:51 PM Flag

    Announced a large M&A deal with $80mm of revenue
    for $55mm of cash.

    Gets them most of the way to the $500mm revenue target.

  • Reply to

    Where is Rufrano

    by innagrigorenko Apr 10, 2015 2:23 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 13, 2015 3:25 PM Flag

    Me three.

    In this case, I was on the wrong end when I first got in.

    I think there is a solid case for a higher valuation even without a Cole turnaround.

    The downside is if Cole continues to have problems and management refuses to cut bait.

    So, two out of three cases are good, and the bad one seems unlikely. That's why I am still here.

  • Reply to

    Where is Rufrano

    by innagrigorenko Apr 10, 2015 2:23 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 13, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    The market obviously does not agree with you about the value of Cole.

    And the sale of CCIT to SIR was the sale of managed assets, not owned assets.

    It is the ability of Cole to regain its ability to sell to retail (Mom & Pop) investors that is in question.


  • Reply to

    Where is Rufrano

    by innagrigorenko Apr 10, 2015 2:23 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 13, 2015 11:13 AM Flag

    The company has already indicated "mid-summer." Why does this need to be repeated so often?

    This is not an unreasonable time frame for developing a plan since the business must be fully evaluated first. And we are talking here primarily about Cole and its distribution/sales operation.

    The verdict relative to Cole will determine all of the other pieces of the pie. So be prepared to wait until as late as post Labor Day, taking note that the company scheduled and held an Analyst Meeting last year in mid-September. they are likely to hold this one at the same time since it is unlikely to be prior to the early-August release of the 15Q2 earnings, and it is unlikely to be during August, when the entire world (including their target audience of investors and analysts) is on vacation.


  • Reply to

    Where is Rufrano

    by innagrigorenko Apr 10, 2015 2:23 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 12, 2015 10:51 PM Flag

    This is a dumb comment.
    Why would he have anything to say before the upcoming earnings report?
    Don;t you know they can't really disclose anything that doesn't require immediate disclosure until then?

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Apr 10, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    The message board seems to be a dead link on the main CYAN page.

    I am using Google: "Yahoo Finan CYAN Mess" to access the board directly.

    Chart still looks good.


  • alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 9, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    Get out now? So you can buy cheap?

    You seriously think the stock should trade at only 10x earnings?

    At a 9% FCF yield at the end of the year when current share repurchases are completed?


  • Reply to

    Ursula takes $20 million in compensation

    by xclffer Apr 8, 2015 10:51 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 8, 2015 9:33 PM Flag

    yawn. Put your money back under the mattress.

  • alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 8, 2015 3:38 PM Flag

    I agree with your last comment, as a long-time user of the rating agencies on the credit buy side and formerly in lending at a large global bank as well. Still, they have significant influence among credit investors, for good or for bad. (Actually, the rating agencies are much better at corporate credit analysis than they are at either municipal, mortgage, structured, or sovereign analysis, though the reliance on being spoon-fed by management is tough to get over).

    Yes, they have a large R/C facility, but the spread on it stepped up with the downgrade and it will have to be replaced at some point with either new mortgage debt or with new unsecured bonds. That's alot of bonds to place for a HY issuer.

  • Says XRX may benefit from push into services.

    Stock is up 26 cents early on the upgrade.
    ST traders likely will fade the pop.


  • Reply to

    What's driving the big gain?

    by johnnymc1956 Apr 7, 2015 12:02 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 7, 2015 3:36 PM Flag

    Oh, it was teh first Monday after the close of the quarter.
    The CFO got the numbers and gave them to the CEO and the stock was off to the races. Don't we see movement frequently right after the quarter closes?

    I just get a laugh about using info from Noanet Trader, but I guess if its good enough for StockTwits like Howard Lindzon, its good enough for me.

    Plus, the stock chart was telling us for the past month that it was primed for a move.

    It is clear that the trend is "up" and its just a matter of valuation.

    Do you have an earnings estimate for the upcoming year?
    I haven't made one.


  • Reply to


    by alexalekhine Apr 6, 2015 4:06 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 7, 2015 1:17 PM Flag

    There you go again!

    The Stifel writeup apparently simply reflected what the company has communicated to analysts.
    There was no "opinion" in what I saw.

  • alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 7, 2015 1:15 PM Flag

    I have usually agreed with most of your comments, Infinityman.
    However, REITs are dependent upon capital markets access in order to fund
    themselves because they generally pay out most of their cash flow as dividends.

    That is why it is a big deal when a REIT losees its investment grade rating.
    And, when you say they don;t need the banks, that's actually not true: ARCP
    currently owes its banks more than $3 billion that is out on its revolving credit facility.

    Thankfully, it does not mature/expire for several additional years.

    Also, the firms that they would use to underwrite the issuance of bonds are the same
    companies that they currently owe that money to on their revolving credit facility.

    As a high yield company, the amount of bonds they can issue is limited, because the
    market size is much smaller than the investment grade market.

    So, I will be expecting the company to include a "path back to investment grade ratings"
    in their upcoming (think August) financial plan and outlook.

    What exactly do you mean by "find willing financial partners."

    As for ANALysts, let's just say I won;t be bending over any time soon.


  • Reply to

    What's driving the big gain?

    by johnnymc1956 Apr 7, 2015 12:02 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 7, 2015 10:05 AM Flag

    Noanet Trader?

    This is tax selling time?

    How about the fact that revenue in each of the past two quarters was nearly 20% higher tahn the revenue posted in any prior quarter?

    How about, management's comments about the company's underlying profitability rate absent legal costs and charges?

    How about the expectation that they will finally get the new capital equipment installed and operating, and, after some initial start-up costs and snafus, it might significantly increase margins, compounding the impact of rising revenues on the net income, EBITDA and cash from operations lines?

    The stock chart simply reflects evolving fundamentals, imho.

    By the way "TA Say Buy" was well ahead of Noanet and picked the bottom of the recent trading range.

    CYAN's equity market cap is finally above $50 million.


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