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Jack in the Box Inc. Message Board

alexalekhine 181 posts  |  Last Activity: 17 hours ago Member since: Mar 22, 2000
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  • Reply to


    by dl9bas Nov 25, 2015 3:59 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine 17 hours ago Flag

    Auto production in China has reached 24 million per year.
    Few are replacement vehicles so the "fleet" of autos in China is growing rapidly.

    In the US it is 18 million and most are "replacement" vehicles.

    Figure what all that does for global oil demand.

  • Reply to

    Carl is taking a beating...

    by xeroiszero Nov 25, 2015 10:22 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine 17 hours ago Flag

    The thing I can't figure out is what took Carl so long to get involved here.

    This one has been begging for him for quite a while.

    The CEO has already done some of his work for him by buying back about
    300 million shares over the past 3 years or so. The share count used to be around 1.3 billion,
    now it is only 3 billion.

    Frankly, a company with a strong brand name with on the order of $1.3 billion of annual free cash flow should NOT be selling for a $10 billion equity market cap.

    There is a pretty easy fix here:
    1) Sell the financing business and get around $4 billion of its debt off the balance sheet. Maybe get a few hundred million in cash for it from the buyer and use it to buy back some more stock.

    With only $4 billion of remaining debt on the balance sheet, the Debt/EBITDA ratio will be only 2.0x.
    Given the FCF generation capability, the company can EASILY borrow another 4 billion, bringing it up to 4x Debt/EBITDA. and they can buy back another 35% of the float with that.

    You keep the rating agencies at bay by telling them the intention is to use the FCF to reduce the debt within 18 months by about $2 billion, bringing Debt/EBITDA to around 3x, leaving the company still IG rated.

    2) You can make a decision about how you are going to allocate cash flow.
    The company is using $300 million annually for dividends, targeting $500 million for M&A, and using the rest for buybacks.

    Here's the problem:
    1) Nobody is buying the stock for its yield. Can the dividend.
    2) The M&A deals that they have done don't seem to have had any impact on results/performance.
    Their impact is invisible. Stop doing M&A deals.
    3) Focus the use of cash flow into a single channel: buybacks.

    $1.3 billion of Free cash flow on 1 billion shares is $1.30 per share.

    If you get the share count down to 600 million shares, that $1.3 billion of FCF is $2/share.

    At the current FCF Yield of around 13%, buying back 40% of the stock will give us about a 65% boost in the share price.


  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine 18 hours ago Flag

    At $30, equity market cap is $2.5 billion.

    Estimated 2016 Free Cash Flow (that's Cash from Operations less Capital Spending):

  • Reply to

    Can't belive that the agencies announced that

    by hvisklat Nov 17, 2015 3:41 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Nov 25, 2015 1:09 PM Flag

    They did it because they need to do options trading to supplement their incomes as government drones.

  • alexalekhine alexalekhine Nov 25, 2015 12:32 PM Flag

    I really like how you support your argument with facts and reasoning.

    I guess fitness is just a "fad."


  • Reply to

    Time to bail out and take your losses here !!

    by heatwinagain Nov 25, 2015 11:28 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Nov 25, 2015 12:24 PM Flag


  • Reply to

    There's nothing wrong with KMI's business

    by not_totally_gray Nov 20, 2015 6:12 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Nov 25, 2015 11:21 AM Flag

    You are assuming that the pipeline is not maintained.
    Just because it has a 30-year life for depreciation/tax purposes, does not mean it has a useful life of 30 years.
    And of course, since the asset IS depreciated over time, that depreciation represents cash flow that is in addition to the earnings of the pipeline.

  • Reply to

    Dateline 2026

    by alexalekhine Nov 21, 2015 10:56 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Nov 25, 2015 11:06 AM Flag

    why don't you?

  • Reply to

    one more

    by larry2607 Nov 24, 2015 12:25 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Nov 24, 2015 1:05 PM Flag

    There is no "emergency."

    Are business conditions a bit uncomfortable right now?
    Certainly, Moe.

    They business is largely not based on commodity prices (outside the 18% of the CO2 segment which itself is largely hedged through next year and even into 2017), and they will deliver projects into service over the course of the coming year that will lead to continued growth in EBITDa and Cash Flow in absolute terms, though maybe not at as great a rate when measured in per share terms.

    The dividend paid a year from now WILL be higher than the one most recently paid.

  • Reply to

    There's nothing wrong with KMI's business

    by not_totally_gray Nov 20, 2015 6:12 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Nov 24, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    XOM is about the ONLY company in the Energy sector that is still buying back stock. The ONLY one. That's the reason they keep a AAA credit rating.

    And by the way, XOM and KMI are not "in the same industry"

    One is an oil and gas producer and refiner, the other stores and transports primarily natural gas, but some oil and refined products.

    Production and Refining are totally unlike pipelines and storage.

    As for KMI, one of several things will happen:

    1) Either the stock will recover and reduce the cost of equity capital allowing it to continue to fund growth projects


    2) The company will cut back on the amount of growth capital spending it does.


  • Reply to

    sell you fools I am taking XRX down today

    by johnboy2680 Nov 24, 2015 10:17 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Nov 24, 2015 11:21 AM Flag

    psycho at work.

    May need to use the Ignore button.

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Nov 24, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    Icahn sees a few things that other investors either don't see or can't put into context.
    Among them are:

    1) Ineffectual leadership at the CEO level(ok, everybody sees this one).
    Ursula did recognize the critical situation of the DocTech business and was successful
    in diversifying the business base by acquiring ACS. She gets credit for that one.

    2) Icahn sees a company that has reduced its share count over the past few years from
    about 1.3 billion shares to about 1.0 billion shares.

    3) Icahn sees that XRX can relatively easily sell the financing business because financing
    a copier is little different than financing a car: You know the residual value, you get a 3-5 year lease,
    and you know where it is and it can be repossessed.

    Doing that will free up about $500-$700 million in capital used to support ~$4 billion in debt that
    will come off the balance sheet.

    4) Without the financing business debt on the balance sheet, Icahn sees that he can add leverage
    to the core business because core debt of around $4 billion is supported by nearly $2.5 billion of EBITDA.

    5) He sees a company that is generating on the order of $1.3 billion of free cash flow that has a market cap of $10 billion. With better management (remember, everybody thinks XRX is not well-managed) he probably thinks that FCF figure can get up to $1.5-$1.8 billion.

    6) He sees that ACS competitors like Computer Sciences and Accenture trade at more than 20x earnings, and wonders why XRX is trading at 10x earnings.

    In short, the deck is stacked in his favor at these prices and he has enough weight to throw around that he can make something happen.


  • Reply to

    Kinder Morgan debt vs dividend

    by lining825 Nov 23, 2015 5:43 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Nov 24, 2015 10:25 AM Flag

    Except you haven't looked at the coupon levels on the debt that is maturing like:

    $850 million of 5.7% debt in January
    $250 million of 8% debt in February
    $67 million of 8.25% debt in February

    They can borrow at rates under most of those rates.

  • Reply to

    Kinder Morgan debt vs dividend

    by lining825 Nov 23, 2015 5:43 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Nov 24, 2015 10:22 AM Flag

    Most of the maturing debt through 2020 is at substantially higher coupons than they would pay if the rolled over the debt.

    In any event, they WILL roll over the debt AND issue new debt to fund new projects.

    They will maintain a capital structure in which debt and equity are about the same size.

  • Reply to

    Giving out retention bonuses? TAKE THEM BACK!

    by dtejd1997 Nov 21, 2015 12:51 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Nov 24, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    I haven't lost any money.

    I have been selling $5 puts regularly and collecting the income looking for the best spot to put on a position in the expectation that the stock will eventually sell at 100% of tangible book value (around $7.25-$7.50).


  • Reply to

    Really Icahn?

    by teknowiz Nov 23, 2015 6:10 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Nov 23, 2015 6:28 PM Flag

    How about his wins in AAPL & NFLX

    This is a no brainer for him.

    If he can get Ursula out, the company will do much better.

  • Reply to

    don't' kid yourselves

    by houston99998 Nov 21, 2015 11:14 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Nov 22, 2015 5:18 PM Flag

    Cash flow is going to continue to increase in coming quarters.
    Each quarter they are completing on the order of $500-%700 million of new projects.
    As each project goes on stream, it begins generating cash flow.

  • Reply to

    Giving out retention bonuses? TAKE THEM BACK!

    by dtejd1997 Nov 21, 2015 12:51 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Nov 22, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    Aren't most of these people new?

    Why would they pay a bonus to the exec running the Mexican business.

    This is really egregiously bad.

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Nov 22, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    Came out Last year I think on 12/18.

  • alexalekhine alexalekhine Nov 22, 2015 12:49 PM Flag


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