CORRECTION: That's 10% growth in CRUDE OIL production.
Natural gas production will decline again (a result of a lack of investment in gas drilling), so
overall production will be up but only mid- to low single digits.
Sorry for the confusion.
I completely forgot that they havve a conference call scheduled for 11am this a.m. to give
Looks like they expect 10% production growth in 2014 with capex in the range of $2.8-$3.1 billion,
about 13% below the 2013 capex figure.
That should allow CVE to start generating some better cash flow with more coming in and less going out.
Not worried about this name in any case.
The ex-dividend of 24.2 cents per share yesterday is a 3.4% dividend yield at a price of $28.50.
I expect at least a 10% dividend increase, which would bring that yield to a juicy 3.75%,
with more dividend increases to come.
Plus, at these levels, share repurchases become accretive pretty quickly.
Faltering, not faultering
China is NOT buying treasuries hand over fist.
They are not concerned about deflation
Gold is falling because QE is closer to ending than beginning
You lost your #$%$? You must not have bought low.
Remember: Buy low, sell high.
Right now it is clearly low.
Yes, they have lost $$$ on gold inventory, but so what?
The real issue is that their lending business may get regulated by the new
Consumer Protection Financial Bureau, an unaccountable new federal
Shareholder's equity is over $900 million and market cap is around $550 million.
They don;t even appear to have any goodwill to write off.
Of course, they can write off the UK stake of 30%, and will.
it just isn't that big a deal.
Good luck with that short.
If you think an industry as old as pawn shops is going to go away, you're nuts.
Down $1 from yesterday's level is uncharacteristically volatile trading,
even when taking into account that we were ex-dividend the 24.2 cents per share this morning.
Anyone have a clue what happened?
Do you really think women and teenage girls will stop going to stores and malls?
And that teenage boys will stop following them there?
And that people will start buying mattresses online without testing them?
Also, refer to today's WSJ article about stores becoming shipping points for internet deliveries as a way to maximize the productivity and inventory management of their store bases.
Yes, the Sterne Agee downgrade with a target price of $12 (previously $15.50) seems to be behind the move.
However, given that the 10-K was filed also, it is possible there is a "stinky nugget" hidden in there, but I haven't seen it written up anywhere.
The uncertainty about Albemarle & Bond in the UK (EZPW owns 30% of their equity) also may be having an impact.
You are apparently a socialist (or worse)
These message boards are for capitalists.
Any shoerholder that wants to contribute their dividend to some cause is already free to do so.
They are better advised to contribute it to medical research, however.
The BS sucks: The rating is single B at the rating agencies and the sponsors are being forced to take their dividends in new shares lest the company be forced to cut its payout to the amount they are actually generating. The small differentials in gas prices between different regions and between peak and off-peak seasons is hurting profits.
Demand for natural gas is rising sharply because the price is low.
The problem is SUPPLY.
Excess supply is the reason the price is low.
I told you: convertibles offerings always result in people who hedge the convertible by selling the stock short.
There are two sets of such shorters: professional convertibles owners and "traders" who react to things reflexively. As noted previously, the pros aren't shorting here because the typical interest rate arbitrage between the convert and the stock is absent. The "traders" haven't figured it out yet but they couldn't control their reflex reaction.
It is unclear to me why it was down yesterday.
Normally, when a convert deal is done, though, the stock drops.
The main reason for this is that converts are typically bought by professional funds, including
especially hedge funds.
Normally, they would buy the convert, and hedge a "delta neutral" amount of the common stock with the idea of collecting the bond premium as income.
In this case, though, the dividend on the common stock is much higher so that is a "negative carry" strategy, and it seems doubtful to me that a professional fund would do that.
Thus, the drop is to me a mystery, and perhaps simply a reflex action.
It may be that alot of "traders" (i.e. real short term guys) simply sell reflexively when they hear about a convert offering, without in this case thinking through the yield ramifications I discussed.
Somehow, I doubt that explanation too.
So, I remain mystified.
Well, after your previous call, it went to about $28.60.
Now back to $29.74 as this is written, up 45 cents today.
This week we got Coverage Initiations with Buy Recommendations from Citi and from Raymond James.
I am waiting for my Dec 30 calls to expire. Its a covered call position.
Right now I am primarily writing modestly out-of-the-money put options.
Short a put is an equivalent position to a covered write.
Do you mean to say you write 200+ per month of covered calls against your equity position?
Interesting. The monthly dividend rate makes it mostly uneconomic to exercise for dividend capture, I suppose.
I bought 2,000 a few minutes ago on the offer at $2.48 and it was like a dam burst.
Very reminiscent of Mr. Livermore.
It appears the trend is our friend.
Aah, intelligent life detected!
I had not thought about inclusion in the S&P 500, but it does not seem unreasonable post-COLE.
One of the things I think has kept a lid on valuation here maybe is the speed at which the company has been transformed combined with the structure with multiple partnerships.
I definitely have more work to do, but the deal for COLE is very confirmatory to a view that the problems are transitory. Transitory problems tend to result in intermediate term stock appreciation...and it certainly is nice to be well paid to wait.
The stock is getting a fairly typical "Barron's Bounce" this morning. I will probably be looking for an entry point in the coming week....perhaps by selling put options against it (though that forfeits the monthly dividend).
Thanks to both of you for your comments. See you soon.