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Jack in the Box Inc. Message Board

alexalekhine 291 posts  |  Last Activity: 34 minutes ago Member since: Mar 22, 2000
  • Reply to

    cyanotech coming to costco

    by brace7 Jul 18, 2014 11:41 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine 34 minutes ago Flag

    Cold

    Aside from your humorous handle, I must say I feel your pain.

    This has been a poorly-managed company for many, many years, and it has
    finally started to attempt to move beyond management by egghead founder.

    So far, the results have been unsuccessful, though showing period signs
    of promise.

    I think the lawsuit is really holding them back at this point.

    I must say, though, that you are wrong about it being "as bad as it can get." it is not.
    The company is essentially debt free. As a result, it has the ability to be resilient through
    hard times. Companies with debt that hit hard times often fail or have equity investors
    diluted out of their ownership.

    I don't know what your time horizon is, but in two years this could be a much better story;
    How, you ask?

    Imagine:
    1) The pond capacity expansions actually result in increased production
    2) The installatino of new machinery (taking forever) is up and running and has cut costs alot.
    3) the lawsuit is over and the result was not very damaging
    4) management finally decides to stop throwing money down a rat hole (on "branding")
    and decides that they will simply earn really good margins selling the premier "organic"
    "natural" astaxanthin into the bulk market.
    Revenue in a couple of years us up to nearly $40 million, and rising 10-14% annually; they are making a 12.5% net profit margin after tax, or about $5 million. On 6.5 million shares, they've just earned about 75 cents a share, and the analysts are looking for $1.00 a share two years in the future.

    With a growing, profitable business, the stock is trading at 14x next year's estiamte of 85-90 cents, or about between $12 and $13.

    Will it happen? Maybe.

    Could it happen? Sure.

    Alot of things would have to break right.

    So, do not despair. There will come a time when the shares get too cheap.
    Could now be that time? Maybe.

    Unfortunately, the lawsuit may cause great distress, management may continue to chase branded windmill, and new competitors may develop

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine 3 hours ago Flag

    Blowing your wad.

    Billy Boy is going to need alot of tissues.

  • Reply to

    Not the Same

    by ezmoneyisnotthesame 17 hours ago
    alexalekhine alexalekhine 4 hours ago Flag

    Isn't "disgruntled" redundant when used to describe an "employee"?

    aa

  • alexalekhine alexalekhine 20 hours ago Flag

    me too; it means I am going to get another rich creamy devil dog buying opportunity.

    aa

  • alexalekhine alexalekhine 20 hours ago Flag

    This post identifies you as devoid of any market knowledge.

    loser

    And I'm a "long/bull" on HLF.

  • So, does anyone think that all of these firings have anything to do with the fact that the Board recently cancelled the "consulting" contract that Cohen's entity Madison had with the company?

    Wasn't that consulting contract, in fact, simply a backdoor, quasi-legal way for the company to pay dividends on the Class B shares and not on the Class A shares?

    Can anyone say what, exactly, Madison was being paid to do?

    It appears that the company currently is down to only 3 board members. This is the
    smallest number of board members I have ever seen for a public company.

    Obviously, new board members will be named, but who, exactly, is responsible for
    naming them?

    aa

  • Reply to

    What the?

    by tacosta10 Jul 21, 2014 9:46 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 21, 2014 10:37 AM Flag

    They already told us that earnings in 14Q2 were going to be bad.

    There could be additional negative trend developing.

    Not sure who would give their shares away below $10, but that's the reason I have been selling the August $10 puts at fat levels.

    aa

  • alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 21, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    Bring in Chumley!

  • Reply to

    Good and Bad

    by stonecoldfish Jul 18, 2014 4:46 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 21, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    So, how much was getting siphoned off via the (was it a?) management contract that was going straight to MS/Cohen?

    aa

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Jul 20, 2014 8:28 PM Flag

    Well, this board died after the little flurry after the last drop.

    I had sold some $15 puts in the days after te big drop in late June.

    They were July's and the vols were pumped.

    They all expired worthless.

    Im wondering if selling the Augies for 30 cents is a good deal.
    2% of the strike is nice, but any significant market sell-off is going to put them in the money.

    The bounce here in a strong market since the sell-off has not been reciprocated in these shares.

    aa

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Jul 20, 2014 7:58 PM Flag

    know anything about a company SYNT featured in Barron's this past weekend?

    After taking a look at it a bit, it seems to me that alot of people that invest in ATRI
    would find the financial profile, growth, and margins very familiar.

    Of course, it is a very, very different company.

    aa

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Jul 20, 2014 7:55 PM Flag

    Barron's wrote this weekend about OPLK having activist investors after it
    because management is diverting lots of cash and cash flow to a business
    that they think the company cannot develop the distribution for.

    Thinks if the company gives up on this endeavor and salvages cash from a
    sale of it the company could be worth quite a bit more. Kind of a classic
    small-cap activist story.

    Any intelligent life here?

    aa

  • Reply to

    Not even spammers post here

    by robertcover57 May 20, 2014 11:45 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 20, 2014 7:53 PM Flag

    you spoke too soon.

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Jul 20, 2014 7:48 PM Flag

    Your SYNT was featured in Vito Raccanelli's "The Trader" column in Barron's this weekend.

    The stock sounds pretty cheap considering its record of (and current, judging by the recent quarter) growth rate and the cash position.

    Why are SG&A expenses rising so rapidly?
    Why are gross margins down?
    Very impressive net income margins.

    ~$150 million in debt to $700 million in cash?

    aa

  • Reply to

    Private Equity loves opportunities like this

    by retailexecutive Jul 18, 2014 11:26 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 19, 2014 11:49 PM Flag

    Its nice to see those votes of confidence in a poster here (or really on any yahoo board).

    of course, when it is said that they are debt free, you are referring to funded, on balance sheet debt.

    As a retailer, they own little to none of the real estate in which stores are located, and they instead have many long-term store leases. The rating agencies essentially convert those rent payments into a "debt adjustment."

    Even so, you are technically correct that they are "debt free" and I agree that the balance sheet is in fine shape.

    The FCF is strong, the equity market value relative to FCF provides an attractive "FCF yield" and it is exactly the type of situation that a HF would probably like to get involved in.

    aa

  • Reply to

    Cag in China

    by burkepaul471 Jul 14, 2014 5:23 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 19, 2014 11:44 PM Flag

    Yawn.

    The company's credit rating remains solidly investment grade at the rating agencies.

    The company generates significant free cash flow even after dividends and is using that money to reduce debt further.

  • Reply to

    Blame Game

    by dbb508 Jun 26, 2014 7:41 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 19, 2014 11:42 PM Flag

    Perhaps you can also explain why you think the private label business is so different (and apparently more difficult to navigate) than the branded product business?

  • Reply to

    Good and Bad

    by stonecoldfish Jul 18, 2014 4:46 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 19, 2014 11:40 PM Flag

    Maybe one of you guys can explain to a (relative) newbie what exactly is going on here with Madison and the Class A shares. Frankly, I can't remember ever seeing such a screwed up governance set-up.

    I mean, I new there was weird stuff pretty soon after I started looking at this name, but I really don;t understand it.

    aa

  • Reply to

    Anyone know when the next dividend payment is?

    by doc6527 Jul 18, 2014 9:50 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 18, 2014 2:24 PM Flag

    Ex date is 29 July
    Payable 15 August
    Amount raised to 43 cents

    aa

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Jul 18, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    Welcome back to the 13s.

    It may not last long for now (we've had a nice run the last few weeks);
    heck, it might not last until Noon!

    But we will be above $13 in a few months more or less permanently,
    I think.

    This type of income will not be valued at this yield level forever.

    aa

JACK
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