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Jack in the Box Inc. Message Board

alexalekhine 317 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: Mar 22, 2000
  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine 19 hours ago Flag

    I don;t mean to put you on the spot, but perhaps you would like to present your expectations for a few key metrics from the upcoming earnings report such as for:

    Revenue
    Gross Margin
    EBITDA
    Cash from Operations
    Capex
    FCF

    I just read the brief writeup from the Wells Fargo analyst.
    his target price range now is $3-$4/share and he forecasts a loss for both FY16 and FY17 based on his belief that management has "endorsed" a view that $50mm in EBITDA is appropriate for the current FY.

    With the earnings report out tomorrow after the close, we shall soon see who's vision of EZPW's future is in better focus.

    aa

  • Reply to

    Hertz Is Worth Less Than Zero

    by fultz00 Feb 4, 2016 6:49 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Feb 6, 2016 5:19 PM Flag

    The $4 billion rental unit is probably worth $2 billion.
    Take a look at what the price of United Rentals has done since the time that HTZ announced its spin.

    aa

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Feb 5, 2016 9:37 PM Flag

    after Wednesday's sharp exchanges with a pair of activist
    hedge fund managers.

    A pretty big but not complete surprise to me.

  • Reply to

    Losing hope for this company

    by mmckenna105 Jan 27, 2016 1:48 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Feb 5, 2016 6:05 PM Flag

    Maryn, is that you?

  • Reply to

    Why EZPW is a probable 5 bagger

    by ezpwjunky Feb 5, 2016 12:10 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Feb 5, 2016 2:38 PM Flag

    From your lips to EZPW's stock price.

  • Washington Post article.

    Just google Russian Sub Cold War and you should find it.

    Not going to post a link

    aa

  • Reply to

    OIl costs...

    by imhuakbar Dec 13, 2015 11:03 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Feb 4, 2016 10:58 AM Flag

    This is definitely the kind of question that you can call Investor Relations and ask them and they will tell you the answer.

    The way to phrase the question is to ask "what is HUN's sensitivity to a $10 (or $5 or $1) change in the price of crude oil? To a 10 cents change in the price of natural gas? to a 5 cent change in the price of propane, etc., etc.

    That's the kind of question that IR people are actually able to help an investor with.

    aa

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Feb 2, 2016 9:26 AM Flag

    The quarterly dividend was increased to 20 cents from 18 cents.
    That's an 11.1% increase.
    At the current $28.07/share that's a 2.85% yield.
    The dividend has been growing; quarterly dividends were as follows in each of the past few years:
    2012: 11 cents
    2013: 15 cents
    2014: 16 cents
    2015: 18 cents
    2016: 20 cents is now expected to be the rate for the year

  • Reply to

    ? Certainty of divi's

    by jldonders Jan 28, 2016 5:26 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jan 31, 2016 1:59 PM Flag

    Well, that may be one way of looking at it, but maybe not the right way.

    Certainly you understand that the business model has been:
    Pay out the earned cash flow after "maintenance capex" as distributions, and
    fund the growth capex with a (near) 50/50 combination of new debt and newly-issued equity.

    The problem of course is that funding new projects with equity costing a 15% distribution yield is not a sustainable strategy.

    Neither is funding the new projects with all debt a sustainable strategy as leverage will rise and ratings will get downgraded to junk, even if the company could access enough debt in the public equity market to begin with.

    So, what's a company to do?
    Follow the kinder model and cut the distribution to 75%?

    That's a real problem for ETE which is depending on the combination of those distributions and the IDRs they generate to finance the Williams business.

    Of course, they will high-grade and reduce the growth capex budget, but that is not even really possible in the very short term.

    So, they probably will use some bank debt to fund the new projects along with a limited amount of equity and they will hold the dividend flat to retain some equity.

    At the end of the day there are alot of moving parts and alot of uncertainty still. That's why it is still yielding 14% or whatever it is today.

  • Reply to

    ? Certainty of divi's

    by jldonders Jan 28, 2016 5:26 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jan 31, 2016 1:42 PM Flag

    You obviously know they can't talk to investors right before they are making an announcement on the same topic, right?

    Of course it is a quarter-by-quarter call. A Board of Director's decision. The guy would get fired if he said anything else.

  • Reply to

    2016 Cash Flow

    by alexalekhine Jan 27, 2016 11:19 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jan 31, 2016 10:47 AM Flag

    Starting with $1.3 billion of FCF, XRX expects to

    1) Pay $300 million out as dividends ($0.30 dividend on ~1 bnshares); That leaves $1 bn of FCF remaining
    2) Use $100-$400mm for acquisitions; That leaves $750mm of FCF remaining (using $250 as the midpoint)
    3) Probably they will spend up to $200mm on restructuring expenses
    4) That leaves $550mm for buybacks. That will reduce the share count by about 55 million shares, so, the share count for the year could approach 975 million (currently about 1.025bn, I estimate.

  • Reply to

    EZPW performance versus peers

    by ezpwjunky Jan 25, 2016 3:58 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jan 29, 2016 4:00 PM Flag

    Any idea how the multiple class of share structure came about?

    It is pretty unusual in the case of a company that has long been public.
    I mean, you can't just create a class of ownership and exclude the existing owners, but in this case one guy has 100% of the controlling class.

    anybody?

    aa

  • Reply to

    Where will Cyanotech be heading in 2016?

    by p.faas Jan 20, 2016 11:48 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jan 29, 2016 12:19 PM Flag

    Valuation.

    The company has demonstrated that it is capable of generating profits and cash flow in the past.

    There have been alot of issues that now have been resolved, and I recognize that it is essentially "farming" and there are good years and bad years (and quarters for that matter).

    All through 2013-2014 when the company was facing the patent lawsuit it never traded lower than about $4.20.

    Since then, they have invested in the new machinery, won the lawsuit, and continued to expand revenue. They've gotten into Costco. Basically, if the company can demonstrate that the new machinery works, then margins should be higher than in the past on a higher level of revenue. Thus I see no reason why the stock can't double and trade in the 10s within a year.

    Of course, the management team here does leave alot to be desired (maybe too much Maui wowi or Kona gold). Still, for a debt free, well-established company with ongoing revenue growth, it looks cheap now

  • Reply to

    Consumer Loan Bad Debt in Mexico

    by ezpwjunky Jan 26, 2016 6:58 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jan 29, 2016 12:11 PM Flag

    The interest rate is in the mid-70s?
    Eww
    You're making me feel dirty.

    We certainly will see within the next 2 weeks.

    I am short a substantial number of the June 2.5 puts.
    I expect them to go out worthless.
    Own some stock outright, as well.

  • Reply to

    $8 is pretty ridiculous here.......

    by alexalekhine Jan 25, 2016 1:31 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jan 29, 2016 10:34 AM Flag

    I would buy the entire company before it got to $2 a share.

  • Reply to

    Blackrock has been the problem

    by ezpwjunky Jan 26, 2016 3:36 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jan 28, 2016 4:14 PM Flag

    You say that numbers don't lie, but in this case they were lying: they had to restate 3 years of numbers. (though I admit that seems to be an exaggeration of what has actually happened).

    aa

  • Reply to

    Blackrock has been the problem

    by ezpwjunky Jan 26, 2016 3:36 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jan 28, 2016 4:12 PM Flag

    If you are going to compare a potential asset value of 500 stores x $1 mm each at $500 million and then compare it to the equity market cap, what is the debt that would have to be satisfied before the shareholders saw any green in an asset sale scenario (which I do not expect)?

  • Reply to

    Consumer Loan Bad Debt in Mexico

    by ezpwjunky Jan 26, 2016 6:58 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jan 28, 2016 4:09 PM Flag

    That would be logical.

    Share repurchases would be a REALLY good way to use that extra cash coming in from that source.

    But wait; unless they weren't getting paid, they already would have the cash.

    Actually, the question I have is: IF it was taking so long to get the account set up in their confounded computer system, where they getting paid on the loans all along, and how was that cash being accounted for.

    I guess you would have as an asset the "unpaid loan payments" and you would have what as the liability?

    aa

  • Reply to

    Best thing EZPW could do.....

    by den56kk Jan 26, 2016 4:50 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jan 28, 2016 4:02 PM Flag

    Maybe if Sanders becomes President this might be a good idea.

  • Reply to

    Best thing EZPW could do.....

    by den56kk Jan 26, 2016 4:50 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jan 28, 2016 4:01 PM Flag

    LOL

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