I wonder what percentage of the time "intentions to file" within the 14 day grace period are met or not met?
What makes anyone think that after 3 months, another 2 weeks makes any difference?
What do you think the odds are of the 16FQ1 earnings report, ostensibly due on August 15th, being filed on time?
it isn't mid-August, it will be early August.
But, you are apparently calendar challenged as an investor and think that mid-August is far away.
Stick to king and pawn endgames, huh?
You wrote: "Cash Flow continues to be Negative"
Perhaps you meant it continues to decline. I would call you some other D-word, but I will refrain for now. but LEARN TO WRITE.
I wasn't predicting 70 cents....at least I didn't mean to.
But 70 cents is not out of the question, and it will depend on how much and which asset they sell.
I expect them to reduce the balance sheet size by about 15% by selling about 15% of the real estate.
If they get good prices they will sell a good amount. If the pricing is poor on asset sales, then I expect they will sell less property and pay a lower dividend.
So, I think they actually have a tricky decision to make:
They can't set the dividend too high because they don't know how the asset sale program will go; Without knowing that, they don't know how much deleveraging they have to do "the hard way" (i.e. via retained cash flow and debt reduction).
Of course, this is all speculation, but it derives from how I would be thinking about it if I were running the company or on the Board of Directors, combined with what management has said it intends to do.
And of course, at the extremes, yield relationships break down, so obviously a zero dividend doesn't equate to a zero stock price. That isn't a straight line.
I am going to "guess" that they had difficulty writing a proper Risk Disclosure related to the new drying system that is up and running. That they rely on it, that it is a custom design, that it is unproven.
I doubt that it is a financial/inventory thing. But, hey! I could be wrong.
Here is the MORE important question.
Assuming that ARCP restores the dividend in August (even if the payment perhaps is not until Sep 30th or October 1),
WHAT DIVIDEND YIELD SHOULD IT TRADE AT?
Once you answer this question in your mind, you can have some idea what the value of the stock should be.
For me, if the dividend is at a sustainable rate from which it can grow at a mid single-digit rate going forward, I cannot see it trading at higher than a 7% yield.
Thus, a 70 cent annual dividend would result in a $10 stock price.
That's close more than 20% above the current level.
Wrong. Early August is not very far away in the greater scheme of things.
obviously a guy who knows nothing about financial statements when he thinks that cash flow is negative.
A Bloomberg story yesterday indicates that analysts at Longbow Research (a boutique)
says that lease rates and "broader railcar demand moderated further in Q2" and was
resulting in weakness in stocks like Greenbrier.
So that is a large part of the weakness we are seeing, it appears.
Since I was reincarnated after my unfortunate demise in 1946, I no longer speak or read Russian (or French for that matter).
It is nice to see new books about my revolutionary defense, but there are too few Grandmaster proponents of it in practical circumstances in the age of modern opening theory.
This is simply the way it is done.
$4mm on $686 million is an interest rate of 0.58% if the "bond" remains in place for a year. That is cheaper than they can borrow the money, and there is no reason to use all of the corporate cash for this purpose.
TRN filed a Form 8-K announcing that the company posted $686 million in bond and that they paid a $3.9 million "premium" for the bond.
Remaining catalysts are:
*data on the remaining studies
*filing of the appeal itself and scheduling of the hearing, arguments.
This comment is so far from reality as to be laughable.
Please continue selling your shares and don't let the commissions hit you on the way out.
All you need to do is figure out a three word Google Search that will let the post's reader pull it up themself and identify the "source" of the web site, i.e. Forbes, Yahoo News, etc.
Finding and holding on to "value" is always a masochistic enterprise.
If you do not already have something like a 4-bagger (I exaggerate) in your pocket, and you are not a bit uncomfortable about a position, their is either something wrong with your thesis or there is something wrong with you as an investor.
Both are serious problems, only one of which has a solution.