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Jack in the Box Inc. Message Board

alexalekhine 178 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 30, 2016 1:32 PM Member since: Mar 22, 2000
  • Reply to

    Manor Care

    by catherinekolen93 Feb 10, 2016 12:03 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Feb 14, 2016 8:39 PM Flag

    Well, for one thing, they have already transitioned from Manor Care being 34%. Now it is 24% (you say 23%, that's fine).

    These facilities have acute care treatment for people who just had a hospital procedure, and it is much less costly than in other types of facilities.

    The other kind of tenant is typically paid for by Medicare/Medicaid, so no, it isn't a "rip-off."

    Can you imagine the size of the insurance policy they need and the legal expenses they incur everytime some kook sues them because their relative ended up dying?


  • Reply to

    Makes no sense

    by vietvet_06801 Feb 11, 2016 9:52 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Feb 12, 2016 4:30 PM Flag

    Apparently Rockwood made $115 million for the year and their own TiO2 operations is the part that is losing more money than Rockwood is making. check the transcript of the cc.


  • Reply to

    Probabilities and bear thesis

    by pinevalue Feb 10, 2016 10:59 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Feb 12, 2016 12:14 PM Flag

    Good find, very interesting.

    I wonder what the terms are on the Grupo Finmart debt?

    If Grupo Finmart were to stop extending new loans completely, it would incur alot of expenses, but cash flow would soar because the existing loans would still be getting paid down. That should allow them to pay off the Grupo Finmart debt relatively easily.

    Of course, finding a buyer for Grupo Finmart would be greatly preferable.


  • alexalekhine alexalekhine Feb 12, 2016 11:16 AM Flag

    I tend to agree with your analysis.

    The decline in "legacy" revenue in the MDS division was 25% YoY in the quarter.
    This points to very substantial problems in that division. The meaning of "legacy" is stuff that was not acquired the prior year (i.e. during FY15). I guess we now know why there has been no insider buying all the way down.

    Then there was the discussion of the issues with the Hunter acquisition, which was the one very large deal. Apparently there are some problems there, as well. So, all is not well.

    I think Taylor really put them in a tough spot by calling out the Board's own inaction in defending the stock price. Probably they missed their opportunity to recite the "classic conference call lines" such as:
    1) We are focused on running the business and we cannot control the ST movement of the stock price which we think is very undervalued.
    2) We discuss all of the appropriate options relative to capital allocation with the board including acquisitions, divestitures, and share buybacks.

    Not sure if using either one of those would have saved them.

    My current "beef" is that the Board really needs to engage shareholders in a discussion of the Board's intention relative to the company going forward,and they have not done that.

    Also, after what the Board did, it is going to be VERY difficult to hire a new CEO that is good.

    Personally, I think that either HON or HRS should simply buy the entire company and sell of the MDS division and just own the sonobuouy business which has good long-term prospects and is a strong cash flow generator.


  • Considering what took place on the conference call and what took place AFTER the conference call, I find the Board's lack of subsequent communication with investors to be a lapse in judgement.

    To give no reason for the departures and to make no statements other than that the company will commence a search for new executives is, in my view, treating the shareholders in a shabby manner.

    The shareholders deserve to be told what difference of opinion between the management and the board led to this, if any.

    In my opinion, the company now is "in play" for anyone that wants to buy it, especially given the extremely low share price.


  • alexalekhine alexalekhine Feb 11, 2016 4:00 PM Flag

    It is archived on the company's Investor Relations page.

    Go to the main company web page then add the following to it: investor-relations/financial-reporting

    You should see the link to the audio of the conference call.


  • Reply to

    Conference call high (?) lights

    by beauzeau23 Feb 11, 2016 2:30 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Feb 11, 2016 3:22 PM Flag

    If they spin the TiO2 business the shareholders still own it, right?

    They said the TiO2 business is worth $2.0-$2.5 billion.
    That compares to a current market cap for the whole company of $2 billion.

    hence, spinning it off will unlock alot of value.
    Am I missing something?


  • Reply to

    Conference call high (?) lights

    by beauzeau23 Feb 11, 2016 2:30 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Feb 11, 2016 3:20 PM Flag

    Well, yes, the Rockwood Euro operations would be making money because the Euro has collapsed in value.

    The $US operation is losing money because the US$ has soared in value.

    The question I have is: How labor intensive is the production of TiO2?
    Steel is very very labor intensive, hence the big competitive advantage of China.


  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Feb 11, 2016 2:33 PM Flag

    Not sure where.
    Will be webcast, of course.


  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Feb 11, 2016 2:32 PM Flag

    The worst thing I can see is that the SSS for the franchised units looks very poor.
    Midpoint of guidance is above the consensus estimate.

    Just raised the divided recently.
    Hedge fund raised its position recently.

    was up earlier, now flat in a very weak market.


  • Reply to

    Extraction Plant

    by prince_ashargin Feb 11, 2016 1:23 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Feb 11, 2016 2:28 PM Flag

    it is years overdue.
    It went operational almost 9 months ago.
    This is nothing but the grossest level of incompetence.

  • Reply to

    More reasons (excuses) for another loss

    by wright.tom64 Feb 11, 2016 8:15 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Feb 11, 2016 12:10 PM Flag


    There is NOTHING good in the report.

    it is "Ice Cold" not "Luke Warm"

  • Reply to

    Earnings Suck Big Time

    by alexalekhine Feb 11, 2016 8:11 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Feb 11, 2016 12:09 PM Flag

    This is all #$%$, not your post, the company's report.
    But, where do you see cash flow information. I see nothing that indicates any particular cash flow result for the quarter.

    They claim difficulties in producing astaxanthin, yet inventories are way up vs end of the FY.

    Apparently, the new equipment is NOT YET IN USE. "...increase in extraction costs as we make progress toward operating our new extraction plant at full capacity."

    So, it looks as if they have a bunch of inventory that is "in process" and cannot be sold because it is unprocessed.

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Feb 11, 2016 8:11 AM Flag

    #$%$ excuses
    Extractor sucking wind
    Production way down.

  • Reply to

    Why EZPW is a probable 5 bagger

    by ezpwjunky Feb 5, 2016 12:10 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Feb 11, 2016 7:34 AM Flag

    If it were a Sur thing or even highly probable, we should see insider buy commenced right about now

  • Reply to

    Probabilities and bear thesis

    by pinevalue Feb 10, 2016 10:59 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Feb 10, 2016 5:25 PM Flag

    An article in the Austin Business Journal confirms that EZPW "may be looking to divest its Mexico-based financial services subsidiary."

    According to the article, the unit posted a loss of $19.5 million in the quarter.

    My understanding was that the loss was going to be a one-time thing because they were reclassifying any loan that wasn't entered into their IT system within 6 months as "delinquent" even if the payments on the loan were being made on time.

    In my mind, this raises the possibility that the unit will be sold to cronies for a song based on the distorted earnings. basically, they can pawn their own subsidiary to some "insider" who knows he's getting a good deal.


  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Feb 10, 2016 4:36 PM Flag

    This private equity / activist investor annonuced today that it had increased its stake in GNC from 4.3% to 6.3%, but it remains a "passive stake."

    i think that's why the stock jumped $1 today.

    Earnings are out tomorrow morning and the conference call starts at 8:30.

    They have already told the Street that earnings would be at the high end of guidance.

    So, the only major point of "unknown" that may be cleared up tomorrow is what they provide in terms of guidance.

    The current consensus for the new fiscal year is $3.19/share.


  • Reply to

    If ETP cut the Div in half

    by motobec46 Feb 8, 2016 12:59 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Feb 10, 2016 3:11 PM Flag

    Jimmy & Dog are both correct.

    If ETP cut the distribution, ETE would get less in distribution payouts on the units it owns duirectly, but it would suffer a catastrophic drop in the amount of IDRs that ETP pays up to ETE for the privilege of having a GP in charge of it.

    ETE desperately needs that cash flow in order to pay the debt service not only on its own obligations but on the debt it will incur when it closes the Williams deal.


  • Reply to

    Probabilities and bear thesis

    by pinevalue Feb 10, 2016 10:59 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Feb 10, 2016 12:15 PM Flag

    Well, according to junky they are likely to sell Finmart.

  • Reply to

    How many jobs will this cost people?

    by alfredpacker80537 Feb 9, 2016 9:32 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Feb 9, 2016 3:48 PM Flag

    You make serious charges but without specifying any claim.

    What company failed?

    I buy stocks, not frickin clues.


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