On 10/13 they upgraded back to Buy and reiterated the target price of $4.30.
On 10/10, the prior trading day, PLNR closed at $3.10.
Talk about clueless.
He has been gone for a while already.
The cost to produce depends in part on the prices they pay for drilling rigs, fracking materials and crews, etc. Bakken is clearly higher cost than either Permian or EFS, but takeaway capacity in the Permian has pricing under $80 a barrel right now in Midland.
I was shocked to see an email in my box this morning indicating
that I had received an early exercise notice on some puts I was short
that expire next week.
That is very unusual.
They did already tell investors that that they have sales of some Red Lobster pieces underway already at prices that are at higher prices than they paid (i.e. lower cap rates).
It seems unlikely to me though, that concern about too many Red Lobster locations is what actually ails the stock. That is a function of management dissembling and self-dealing, imho.
it seems to me that since the secondary offering, they have raised ALOT of capital from selling the malls and from selling Cole Capital. They should probably start a share repurchase program.
Oct 1 - JPM - "Cole Capital Sale should reduce copmplexity, narrow valuation gap"
Oct 1 - BofA/Merrill Lynch -- "Simplifying the model; Listening to shareholders"
Oct 1 - BMO - "Selling Non-Traded REIT Sponsor; Lowering estimates"
Looking just at the chart, I don;t see anything special about the $3.00 level.
Instead, the $2.80 level seems to be where previous tops (i.e. supply/distribution), might
flip back to becoming demand/accumulation and therefore support.
We are at $3.10 right now. I have not added back any yet.
Saying one thing then doing something else (issuing equity, then selling the Cole platform) destroys confidence in management. When that happens, core shareholding groups head for the exit.
The current yield of about 8.6% is a sign of intense disenchantment with management AND a sign taht investors do not think the dividend is sustainable.
The consensus earnings estimate for FY2015 (started October 1, 2014), is currently 29 cents per share.
With a debt-free balance sheet and $11.5 million of cash on hand, the equity market cap at $3 per share would be about $66 million. The cash is worth about 50 cents a share.
At 10x earnings, it would seem to be attractive again on a quantitative/valuation basis.
Having sold alot on the way up in the $3.70 area and most of the rest in the $4.50 area, reloading under $3 is an attractive idea IF one can maintain confidence in the forward growth of the display business.
The problem here is not the macro environment.
The problem is that whether the market is up or the market is down, ARCP is underperforming both NNN and O.