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ConAgra Foods, Inc. Message Board

alexalekhine 169 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Mar 22, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Nice move

    by tapakegortu 20 hours ago
    alexalekhine alexalekhine 16 hours ago Flag

    Today's move likely was the financials getting reported up the line.
    Deadline likely was last day of May.
    LOL

  • Reply to

    PE ratio method

    by s_lefkowitz May 21, 2015 3:55 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine 18 hours ago Flag

    You are correct, the data is not included in the earnings press release.

    You have to look in multiple places to find it.

    For the full-year number, you look in the SEC Form 10-K at the "Statement of Changes in Financial Position" also commonly referred to as the "Cash Flow Statement."
    1) Look for the line that says "Cash from Operations."
    2) Then look for the line below that for "Capital Expenditures" or "Capital Spending."
    3) Subtract #2 from #1. This is the "Free Cash Flow."

    It is NOT a number that is disclosed directly, it must be derived in this manner.

    Similarly, you can look at the same lines in each of the SEC Form 10-Q filings.

    There is a final wrinkle. If you go to the second quarter Form 10-Q and do a calculation, you have the number for 2 quarters combined. In order to get just the second quarter number, you have to subtract the first quarter's number.

    Of course, analysts then compare that number to things like revenue (FCF as a percent of revenue) and they also look at that number compared to equity market value, what I have described as the Free Cash Flow Yield. Analysts also care about the trend in this number from year to year.

    Happy hunting!

    aa

  • Reply to

    We'll see how much HERC split is valued

    by activistshareholder May 21, 2015 12:46 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine May 28, 2015 1:13 PM Flag

    Close, but not exactly. Perhaps I did not make myself completely clear.

    If HERC were to be spun off without any debt, it would be expected by Business Insider to have an equity market capitalization of about $4.1 billion, equal to about $9 per share if shareholders got one share of HERC for each share of HTZ they held.

    Since HTZ is selling for $20, that implies a share price of $11 for the HTZ stock.

    Is there some part of that hypothetical situation that is not clear?

    aa

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine May 27, 2015 4:38 PM Flag

    So, there was a huge gap in the chart back in early November after the earnings report.

    The stock went from the $3.60 area all the way up to $7.20, a 100% increase in a matter of a week or so.

    I remember arguing with somebody here on this board who was contending that the stock would "fill the gap" meaning that it had downside all the way to below $4.00.

    Kudos to him on that good call.
    I hope he was able to get in and buy all he wanted in the low $4s here over the past month.

    aa

  • Reply to

    Great stock here at a bargain price!

    by draconian_symbolist777 May 12, 2015 6:28 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine May 27, 2015 4:36 PM Flag

    Good call.
    Looks like it can recover all the way back to the gap in the chart at $5.10-$5.20, which is coincidentally where the peak was during the rally that ended last August.

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine May 27, 2015 3:18 PM Flag

    Stock action remains pretty bullish.

    yes, there was a pullback from $52 to $45, but the lows persisted only a few days.

    Now, we've had a big market swoon yesterday during which the stock held up pretty well, while in today's market rally, the stock is up nicely.

    This is a real "tell" that the trend is still up.
    Of course, there will be some backing and filling as we approach the old highs, but the market apparently expects a strong Q2 earnings report and response from the stock: The August $55 calls can be sold for $1 each, even though the stock has never been above $52 and change.

    aa

  • Reply to

    FTC may not act against this pyramid abomination

    by hudget May 27, 2015 2:45 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine May 27, 2015 3:14 PM Flag

    You need professional help to handle your delusions.

    You still don't seem to understand that vast quantities of powdered nutrition are being consumed by large numbers of people all around the world.

    The product category is so hot that new entrants are coming in, like Soylent, which purports to be cool, but isn't.

  • Reply to

    We'll see how much HERC split is valued

    by activistshareholder May 21, 2015 12:46 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine May 27, 2015 12:05 PM Flag

    Business Insider recently estimated that the Enterprise Value (no pun intended) of HERC likely is about $4.1 billion which is about $9 per share of HTZ common stock.

    With the stock selling at about $20-$21, the car rental business and everything else is being valued at around $11 per share.

    I have to believe that when the dust settles, the car rental business will be worth substantially more than that.

    I'm under water here but I am going to wait for the upcoming catalysts to play out: completion of financials, and spin of HERC.

    Thanks for listening

    aa

  • Reply to

    Got in at $9 with an order. Appaloosa is in.

    by stage3time May 15, 2015 12:05 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine May 27, 2015 11:47 AM Flag

    Got a link?

  • Reply to

    Great stock here at a bargain price!

    by draconian_symbolist777 May 12, 2015 6:28 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine May 23, 2015 3:37 PM Flag

    That would be nice, I am short some of the June $5 puts
    Sold em for 30 cents when the stock was around $6.20.
    If it is close to $5 and I get to wear it, I'll turn around and
    sell the $5 calls on a say, two-thirds of that position.

    aa

  • Reply to

    Rufrano acquires $6 mm in share valuation

    by tangojunto May 14, 2015 7:58 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine May 22, 2015 1:12 PM Flag

    You really should, then, by all rights, be investing elsewhere, and let those with vision own your shares.

  • Reply to

    Rufrano acquires $6 mm in share valuation

    by tangojunto May 14, 2015 7:58 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine May 22, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    He's thinking, "Hey, Board, thanks for the free shares."

  • Reply to

    PE ratio method

    by s_lefkowitz May 21, 2015 3:55 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine May 22, 2015 9:05 AM Flag

    I think you should forget about the P/E and focus on the Free Cash Flow yield method.

    Define "Free Cash Flow" as Cash from Operations less Capital expenditures.

    This is the amount of cash the business is generating.

    By my calculation, for the last 4 quarters, this amount is $10.510 million.
    My Bloomberg shows 22.63 million shares outstanding, and the closing price of $4.34 makes the market cap of the company $98.2 million.

    10.51 / 98.2 = a 10.7% "Free cash flow yield."

    You must then ask yourself:
    1) Is this FCF yield sustainable?
    2) Is this a return that reflects the risk of the company itself and its business?
    3) Is this FCF yield attractive relative to the opportunities available in other stocks?

    By way of comparison, Xerox (XRX), has $1.531 billion of free cash flow in the last 12 months, while it also has an equity market cap of $12.71 billion.
    That FCF yield is 12.0%.

    Should PLNR's FCF yield be less than that of XRX?

    It all depends upon your outlook for PLNR's growth.
    If it grows rapidly it may soon have a higher FCF yield than slow-growing (more like no-growing) XRX.

    P/E is convenient, but earnings are perhaps not the best measure of valuation.

    aa

  • alexalekhine alexalekhine May 21, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    I think they already told us it has to do with different standards for GAAP in Mexico vs US for recognizing loan impairments.

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine May 20, 2015 6:05 PM Flag

    Moody's had some positive things to say about "Red Lobster Acquisition" the entity that borrowed to buy the restaurant operation and that pays the rent to ARCP.

    RLA is amending its revolver, and Moody's views the change positively for their debt.

    But remember: ARCP does NOT operaate Red lobster restaurants.

    aa

  • Reply to

    Buy Monday

    by carlerkornholer May 15, 2015 8:47 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine May 20, 2015 12:29 PM Flag

    hiccup

  • alexalekhine alexalekhine May 18, 2015 3:23 PM Flag

    You must like taking it there big time since you are still here.

  • Reply to

    New Equipment

    by alexalekhine May 18, 2015 9:27 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine May 18, 2015 1:59 PM Flag

    So, when you say "you were told" what exactly do you mean? When werre you told January?

    You wouldn't by any chance have maintained a "timeline" of events related to this capital project, would you?

    Do you recall what the original deadline was for delivery of the equipment from the German vendor and when it actually arrived?

    It seems as if it is close to 4 years since they originally announced that they would pursue the project. Maybe I am getting old and it was only 3 years.

    Yes, I could do some actual research, but if someone has the info handy, I don't need to duplicate that effort.

    Thanks

    aa

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine May 18, 2015 1:09 PM Flag

    Anybody ever heard of betaxanthin?

    I heard about it reading a NYT article today about a way of using yeast to produce morphine, allowing production of morphine to be separated from the growing and harvesting of poppy plants.

    check out the captio to the photo in the article.

    aa

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine May 18, 2015 9:27 AM Flag

    So, is the installation and operational status of the new manufacturing equipment a "material event" taht would require the filling of a Form 8-K to tell investors that it is up and running?

    Or do they keep it a secret until the earnings release (or bury it in the Form 10-K)?

    aa

CAG
38.87+0.26(+0.67%)Jun 1 4:06 PMEDT