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American Realty Capital Propert Message Board

alexalekhine 182 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Mar 22, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Upcoming EZPW Catalysts

    by alexalekhine Apr 30, 2016 1:32 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine 10 hours ago Flag

    Oof

  • Reply to

    Makes no sense

    by vietvet_06801 Feb 11, 2016 9:52 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine 15 hours ago Flag

    Man your call sucked!

    2 months instetead of 12???

    OK, just kidding..

  • I see you raised the quarterly dividend from 16 cents to 17 cents on the day before Tax Day.

    aa

  • Reply to

    Earnings AH?

    by pler33 20 hours ago
    alexalekhine alexalekhine 17 hours ago Flag

    I'm thinking we get a presser after the close announcing when the earnings release will be.....maybe later in the week, or else next week. Just a guess.

  • The stock is up $1.50 in pre-market trading this morning to $25.85.

    As noted in a prior post, the company has more than $300mm of LTM FCF.
    The company has announced it will refranchise 1,000 company-owned stores
    over the next 3-4 years. I have estimated that could raise $750mm in proceeds.

    If we assume that FCF in each of the next three years averages $250mm annually,
    then the company will generate $1.5 billion in cash over three years.

    That compares to the current equity market cap of $1.75 billion.

    That makes these shares ridiculously cheap and completely explains why the
    Board has decided to take this step.

    aa

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Apr 30, 2016 1:32 PM Flag

    1) Upcoming earnings Report
    Date expected: About May 9th but before May 16th

    Possible catalysts:
    a) Good earnings results demonstrated with Grupo Finmart deconsolidated as a "discontinued operation" giving us a first look at the company's results without GF both for Q2 but also for Q1 (by backing out the 3 month numbers from the 6 month numbers)

    b) Possible decision on GF: They may announce a decision to proceed with a sale of GF to a third party or a deal to put it into a JV that they do not control, or (unlikely in my view) a decision to put it into runoff and shut it down). Clearly the latter two would be considered bad news and could hurt the stock price, while the first would be good news and help the stock price.

    c) An announcement of a writedown of the GF entity. Although this seems unlikely after the 10-K filing reiterated its value, they could use the excuse that further analysis revealed an impairment. Obviously this would hurt the stock.

    d) Later, an announcement of a sale of GF could be made; That would be a major positive catalyst.

    e) Announcement of a buyback.
    The shares sell for substantially less than book value and even less than tangible book value.
    I think the market would react positively to a share repurchase announcement using some of the proceeds from the GF sale. However, management has said they want to use the cash to buy more pawn shops.

    f) FTC Requires First Cash to sell stores to do merger with Cash America. The recent merger deal announcement is likely to further incent EZPW to do M&A deals. if the FTC requires their merging competitors to sell some locations because of anti-trust issues (think Staples/Office Depot). That would be bullish for EZPW, a logical buyer.

    Can anybody think of any others?

    aa

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Apr 30, 2016 1:22 PM Flag

    So, Junky, perhaps you could provide your astute analysis of the metrics of the recent takeover deal and how it impacts your view of the valuation of EZPW?

    aa

  • Reply to

    Life savings

    by pler33 Apr 29, 2016 9:57 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 30, 2016 1:20 PM Flag

    it completely depends on a variety of "personal factors" including such things as:

    1) What other assets do you own?
    2) How old are you?
    3) How much is your life savings/
    4) Are you including your retirement accounts in that calculation or just your taxable investment account.
    5) How much do you earn? Is it enough to live on?
    6) Do you have dependents (a wife, children, elderly parents to care for)?

    Let's say you are a single 25 year old with $10,000 to invest outside your IRA/401K account, with a job that covers your expenses: Then I say go for it.

    But, If you are a 45 year old guy with a wife two kids and a mortgage, looking to invest 75% of your annual income, then obviously, no, don't do it.

    Funny question, though.

    Remember, diversification is the only "free lunch" on Wall Street.

  • Reply to

    Back to the TEENS

    by tradingexpert4me Apr 28, 2016 8:29 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 29, 2016 12:26 PM Flag

    It is already a buy.

    They bought back about 10% of the stock during 16Q1 and now have only about 70 million shares outstanding. Therefore, at $25 the equity market cap is just $1.75 billion.

    Yet, last 12 months FCF is more than $325 million.

    $325 / $1,775 = 18.5%

    You can't get an 18.5% FCF yield practically ANYWHERE.

    Yes, there are problems. competition from AMZN is largest among them.

    However, I expect that the company's 3-year program to refranchise more than
    1,000 company-owned stores, is likely to generate more than $500 million in
    proceeds. Add in 3 years of FCF at the $250 million level and the company will be
    generating more than $1.25 billion in FCF over 3 years on a $1.75 billion equity
    market cap.

    So, unless you think the company's business will completely implode (and that was
    not the impression I got from reading the conference call transcript), the stock is a
    solid buy here.

    All IMHO, FWIW, DYODD

    aa

  • Reply to

    FCFS and CSH merging

    by right100pctofthetime Apr 27, 2016 10:24 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 29, 2016 12:17 PM Flag

    On what basis did you make that valuation conclusion?

    Others here and the Hedge Fund manager that published on Seeking Alpha have concluded that $15 is the valuation....

    Just askin

    aa

  • Reply to

    Who is left to possibly merge with for EZPW?

    by den56kk Apr 28, 2016 11:17 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 28, 2016 3:32 PM Flag

    The real question is, given the valuation of EZPW shares, why didn't THEY get taken over.

  • This week the "Rating Outlook" was upgraded to Stable from Negative.

    The actual Ba1 rating itself remains the same.

    This is the first necessary step for the company to achieve a rating upgrade to IG in order to be able to refinance the February maturity in the unsecured bond market.

    it's all part of the plan which is going according to script.

    aa

  • Reply to

    Thoughts on Conference Call

    by pkg_long Apr 22, 2016 1:53 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 28, 2016 11:05 AM Flag

    Get a clue --

    it's a cyclical stock.

    That's the kind of stock you date. You never marry them.

  • Reply to

    FCFS and CSH merging

    by right100pctofthetime Apr 27, 2016 10:24 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 28, 2016 10:50 AM Flag

    I've been around the block a few times and aside from crystallizing what the value for the underlying business can be in a takeout, I view it as negative, as EZPW will face a larger, tougher competitor with greater economies of scale relative to being a public company.

  • alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 26, 2016 5:39 PM Flag

    Except for one of the largest shareholders, Meridian.

  • alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 26, 2016 4:30 PM Flag

    Speaking of bozos............

    Try watching the CNBC special on Costco.
    You might learn something.

    They sell large packages of stuff to consumers who can afford them and who have the space to store them until they are needed because they are relatively wealthy and have large houses.

  • As of the end of the conference call, XRX is at $9.75 down $1.42.

    The company cut its Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow guidance by $300-$350 million for the year.

    However, $200-$250 million of the cut reflects expenses related to the separation, which the company expects to complete by the end of the year (Form 10 expected to be filed in July).

    Also, and maybe this is a bigger impact on the stock price, is that the company announced it would not complete and share repurchases in 2016 because the company wants to reduce debt in order to prepare the two separate entities for life on their own.

    Anyhow, this selloff is a big over-reaction in my opinion.

    aa

  • Papa was a rollin' stone

  • Reply to

    A message forsayuthink

    by classfiverapids Mar 17, 2016 12:12 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 24, 2016 8:34 PM Flag

    yet you keep coming back for more and don;t seem to actually ever talk about TRV.

  • Reply to

    A message forsayuthink

    by classfiverapids Mar 17, 2016 12:12 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Apr 24, 2016 8:32 PM Flag

    its "drivel" not "dribble"

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