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AmeriGas Partners LP Message Board

alexalekhine 301 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 minute 53 seconds ago Member since: Mar 22, 2000
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  • Reply to

    Congratulations

    by hgl12692529 6 hours ago
    alexalekhine alexalekhine 1 minute 53 seconds ago Flag

    It seems to me that the "cure" for a valuation too high for one's comfort is to "tiptoe" into the position over an extended period of time..

    Let's suppose you typically take a "full position size" of $20,000 in a stock, but you are worried about te valuation.

    So, instead of buying the full position, why not take a position of $3,000 at the start?
    Give it some time, allow it to appreciate. If the story remains the same, and the valuation remains too high, you will have a decent profit in the name and you can add another $3,000 to your position, which now may be valued in total at around, let's say, at about $6,600 (assuming a 20% profit on the first lot of shares."

    As the ad says, repeat and rinse.

    aa

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine 3 hours ago Flag

    The average FD share count was 91.1 million.

    based on share repurchases completed in 14Q2, the share count in 14Q3 will drop an additional 4.0 million shares, bringing it by my count to about 87.1 million shares without taking into account any additional share repurchases completed in 14Q3.

    The company still had $773 million of cash on the BS, though some of that is cash trapped in Venezuela.

    Total debt now is up to about $1.8 billion and share repurchases have caused equity to turn negative.

    aa

  • Reply to

    Congratulations

    by hgl12692529 6 hours ago
    alexalekhine alexalekhine 4 hours ago Flag

    You can capitalize on your desire to buy the stock at $35 if you have extra cash/margin capacity in your account by selling the $35 strike put options. Get paid for your opinion, if you are willing to back it up with cash.

  • Earnings (as measured by AFFO) were in line with the consensus at $0.24/share.

    While this is $0.01/share short of the quarterly rate of dividend payments (which are disbursed monthly), it should be noted that this result did not include any earnings from the Red Lobster transaction, which did not close until late-July.

    In addition, the company provided guidance for a pro forma year-end 2014 "run rate" for AFFO in a range of $1.18-$1.20.

    In my view, this leaves room for the company to increase it monthly cash dividend from $0.08333 per share to $0.085/share. That would be a 2% increase in the dividend to an annual rate of $1.02/share.

    Additional dividend increases later in the year would then be achievable if the company's actual performance moved steadily toward the pro forma guidance figure. I see no reason why, if the pro forma guidance of $1.18-$1.20 per share is confidently achievable, that the dividend rate cannot be approaching $1.10/share on an annual rate by the end of this year.

    If this takes place, then ARCP likely will get a serious re-rating by the equity market and the dividend yield is likely to come down below the 7% level. A 7% yield on a $1.10/share dividend would bring the ARCP share price to nearly $15.75.

    All just my humble opinion ahead of the conference call.

    aa

  • The stock looks to be up about $7 after hours..............over $45

    aa

  • Reply to

    Watch for breakout

    by wlenaty Jun 3, 2014 10:45 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 28, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    The 90-minute and 120-minute candlestick charts are quite interesting and IMHO bullish looking.

    aa

  • alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 28, 2014 9:45 AM Flag

    With the stock under $26 down more than $1 after the downgrade, it is a typical overreaction that can be taken advantage of with a little judicious out-of-the-money put selling of the near-month expiration.

    I like selling the August 25s here for 35 cents or so, or even 30 cents. Three weeks until expiration and the earnings report is after the expiration date.

    I agree with retailexec: DSW is much closer to the bottom than the top and the stock is quite cheap.

    Unfortunately, it is still looking for a catalyst, so it might stay cheap for some time.
    The 3% yield at the $25 level makes the wait a bit bearable and provides alot of support to the stock, making it pretty nice to wasting asset option premium.

    aa

  • Reply to

    If you own this stock you should know..

    by dj2ooolbs Jul 25, 2014 12:02 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 28, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    I salute your civilized response to my question, sir.

  • Reply to

    August is comming

    by roxyroo73 Jul 25, 2014 10:17 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 27, 2014 9:40 PM Flag

    You guys seem to be old timers here, what's the story?

    aa

  • Reply to

    Google Search on CYAN

    by alexalekhine Jul 27, 2014 9:32 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 27, 2014 9:33 PM Flag

    CYAN is up against Baker & Hostetler, one of the most powerful law firms in the world.

    Their lawyer's firm has the guy's actual name in the name of the firm.

    Not good.

    aa

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Jul 27, 2014 9:32 PM Flag

    Try googling Cyanotech Law360 and check out the article dated 9 July.

  • Reply to

    Annual meetings......

    by meelertime Jul 25, 2014 5:37 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 27, 2014 9:28 PM Flag

    What does Costco have to do with the annual meeting?

  • Reply to

    Cyanotech: Discounted by the Market?

    by prince_ashargin Jul 24, 2014 7:39 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 27, 2014 9:25 PM Flag

    Probably they are discounting it because they are unable to sustain any significant degree of profitability.

    Plus, there is emerging execution risk from the new equipment installation, which the company has never before attempted.

    Not to mention the lawsuit.

    That's alot of discounting.

    Who is this Meiko and why should we care what they have to say?

    aa

  • Reply to

    Very modest forecast for Cag

    by burkepaul471 Jul 23, 2014 2:14 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 27, 2014 9:13 PM Flag

    That's a really good post.
    They have TOO MANY different brands, making their advertising problem very difficult to solve.
    yes, there is a problem with dramatically changing consumer preferences. I suppose there are not very many CAG skus for sale in Whole Foods. Every supermarket chain out there is trying to emulate Whole Foods, thus, there is less and less space available in existing stores for things like what CAG sells.
    The Ralcorp deal has not worked very well...I don't really know why, but it looks like Stiritz took CAG to the cleaner and maybe stole the crown jewel while they weren't looking.
    Still the stock is FAR too cheap here from a FCF yield perspective, in my view.
    I anticipate that an activist could come in and find it really easy to split this company up and put the company name into the history books.
    Of course, I may need to have alot of patience for that, and will run the risk of getting caught in a "value trap."

    My main strategy here for now is to sell puts into volatility at strike prices that are well-supported by dividend yield. I made a nice trade following the recent earnings report selling some good put premium. It worked out nicely (I keep that stuff short term since te premium on the short ones burns away so much faster).

    I look forward to elucidating conversation.

    aa

  • alexalekhine by alexalekhine Jul 27, 2014 9:02 PM Flag

    Would be 20% off the high.

    This name does not correct by 20% very often.

    The gap through the 200 day moving average on Friday is frightful for the technically-minded.

    There is ALOT of support on the chart in the $270-$275 area.

    However, if there are serious fundamental problems that have developed, the charts won't mean anything.

    I have taken a look at my spreadsheet of the reported financial data and supporting calculations, though, and I did not see any particular problems in the results reported in recent quarters. To the contrary, business seems to be on an improving trend.

    How much of this might just be related to index-related nonsense? The small cap index has been getting really whacked?

    Reasonable opinions/facts welcome.

    aa

  • Reply to

    The Street News

    by tradelink21 Jul 25, 2014 10:35 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 27, 2014 8:47 PM Flag

    Given the significant challenges and lack of growth, what do you think should be the FCF Yield that XRX trades at?

    aa

  • Reply to

    Another decent quarter

    by betting_my_bundle Jul 25, 2014 9:48 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 27, 2014 8:46 PM Flag

    I agree with your commentary here.

    However, what you typically refer to as "PE expansion" I refer to as a reduction in the FCF Yield. Slightly different accounting (I like CFO - Capex = FCF as my "metric" because manipulating eps is too easy) but essentially two sides of the same coin.

    The key thing is that by this time next year I expect revenue growth at the top line to begin to emerge as the growth of ACS begins to outweigh the shrinkage of the document business.

    aa

  • Reply to

    Another decent quarter

    by betting_my_bundle Jul 25, 2014 9:48 AM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 27, 2014 8:44 PM Flag

    I guess you have not been following XRX very long.
    the company only recently completed the integration of ACS.
    A split of the company is NOT on the horizon and there is no activist HF out there that will suggest it.

  • Reply to

    Watch for the Barron's Bounce

    by alexalekhine Jul 20, 2014 7:48 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 27, 2014 7:03 PM Flag

    To be sure, I was saying stay away from Value Line stock, not stay away from the Investment Survey. I guess that could have been misunderstood.

    Value Line actually for many years fit the "VO" strategy you outlined. The family of the founder owns 90% of the stock and the daughter ran the company (Chair/Pres/CEO) from around 1987 until a few years ago when she was banned from the securities industry and banned from being an officer of a public company.

    Regards

  • Reply to

    Watch for the Barron's Bounce

    by alexalekhine Jul 20, 2014 7:48 PM
    alexalekhine alexalekhine Jul 27, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    I was an analyst at VL for 5.5 years...but left more than 2 decades ago.

    It is indeed very useful, but the analysis is very limited in space.
    That company never successfully adapted to the digital era as far as I can tell,
    and Morningstar has eaten their lunch.

    I still know people who are working there.

    aa

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