Thanks for the reminder. I have pretty conservative list of holding and about 50% cash in my main account. Pretty diversified over all accounts.
I am long Intel from $22 (now a $1.06 dividend) and have been doing just the similar thing you are doing but just shorting put options from the opposite direction. I don't hold them long and close them when they drop 50% to 75%.
I was just playing with the "Hmmmm-boy".
"This can't be good news for intel can it ????????"
PC shipments .. see Intel earnings transcript from last month. Known and priced into Intel.
Strong dollar affecting revenues/profits. Like was pointed out to you yesterday.
Relax. Don't panic.
Now, that is funny.
Intel Corporation (INTC)
$34.36 Down 0.12(0.35%) 4:00PM EST
After Hours : $34.24 Down 0.12 (0.35%) 7:14PM EST
TECD got hammered on the bottom line by currency exchange rate changes.
"The bottom line results indicate demand remains strong for the IT products and services the company distributes, even as weaker foreign currencies continue to pinch top-line numbers at Tech Data and other U.S. companies that operate globally"
1. Intel hedges currencies and impact is much less than your small cap company.
2. Maybe some reading or online classes will help you gain the skills needed to analyze earnings reports.
" Today it is going down at least 3% due to stock market succumbing before Thanksgiving"
Probably not. I suspect it will close near the option strike price plus dividend $34.24.
The only "person" holding this stock at $37 is the QQQ ETF so you are part owner too.
"Just do the opposite of what he (it?) says/predicts and you'll retire rich and early."
A perfect contrarian would have some real value. You could really just do the opposite. Someone who always just predicts "down" or always predicts "up" is useless in determining an investment strategy.
Their only value is to surface issues that each investor must VERIFY as truthful and analyze as part of their own strategy.
"extremely low volume today, INTC be down HUGE again tomorrow"
The multiple "thumbs down" ratings were more correct than your "down HUGE" "prediction".
I guess "super genius" has a different meaning on your planet than on Earth.
Maybe your perpetual "Intel will be down huge" prediction will be correct "tomorrow".
"alex = mean to marco ...Bear's Lives Matter"
Alex thinks BEAR lives really do matter. Alex also thinks that marco is THE ONLY person who thinks "marco is a genius". Alex thinks that marco is just a goof-off alias. Of course, marco knows this to be true.
Why not make "a case" that you are really a "bear" instead of just an anonymous message board poster saying "sell" every day. Post some real information once in a while.
"Yinz shoulda listen to yer olde buddy marco, AGAIN."
If I had followed the advice of "marco the super genius", the "genius" recommended I sell at $22 or $23 or $24 or $25 or $26 or ..... Hardly "genius" class advice.
"marco the super genius" is the "negative broken clock" of Intel forecasting.
There are investing strategies OTHER than "all in" or "all out".
Saturday, Supercomputing 2015 conference opens and Intel should introduce their 72-core PHI (Bootable) version.
Next week is the investors conference and a likely catalyst for volatility.
When Intel was $25.87 ....
Looks like INTC will close RED again
by marcopubio • Aug 26, 2015 10:39 AM Flag
falling again like a 747 that just ran outta gas.
marco the super genius : - ))))) No gas -Fed QE4 - KABOOM!
So you think these are going to be a surprise to executives and they did not consider when making their forecasts?
If it is not a surprise to you or me, then it is already priced into the market.
Enormous volume ... during the same time in 2011, A pair of deep call strikes had near identical volumes of 660,000 CONTRACTS each. The fails to deliver (naked short sales without providing shares) spiked to 11,000,000 shares from its normal couple 100k share average. (historical data from failstodeliverDOTcom ) I have not been able to figure it out, but what you detected yesterday has routinely occurred for Intel on the EVE of ex-dividend. The trading volatility is drained low and I personally think that it is one or more very large arbitrager harvesting pennies off an arbitrage situation they have created.
JMO based on the kind of behavior you observed. INTC. The futures are modestly green so Intel will likely finish down a dime at $34.00 tomorrow as the option guy unwinds the trades.
Watch the BID/ASK spread for options too.
There is a 25 cent spread (the same as the dividend)and the option market maker will not let it get smaller than 25 cents in the money.
ALSO ... so far ... but the Open Interest will tell you what actual positions were taken.
13,000 Jan 2017 $20 calls have traded
28,000 Nov 20th $31
32,000 Nov 20th $30
7,500 Nov 20th $29
7,500 Nov 20th $28
IMO, it is dividend arbitraging. Tomorrow, Intel trades ex-dividend so there will be a discontinuity in the value of the stock/calls/puts.
The buy the deeper calls and sell the shallower calls (more premium).
Today near the close, they will prematurely EXERCISE the deep call ($20), steal the dividend and then let the shares be assigned back to the shallower calls ($25). IF They can acquire the complementary call positions for less than the dividend, then they can make a few cents per share.
IMO, it is the option market maker doing this OR hedge funds with positions I the In convertible notes.
"DOW will drag INTC down to $33.50 bet ya....
Intel is part of nearly every large index. Its price movement is strongly influenced by ETF and derivative transactions.
I "bet ya" that Intel dividend arbitraging will keep Intel near the dollar strike today ($34.00) but open ex-dividend tomorrow below $34.00. Intel historically sells off after dividend payments so $33.50 is not a terribly risky guess.
"I think this was more than a programmed sell. Does anyone know how many shares Stacy has left?"
The last SEC FORM 4 that was published was Tuesday, Oct 27th for a routine trade on the previous Friday, Oct. 23rd when 2 RSU options vested and there was automatic selling to cover taxes. He retained the basis adjusted shares and did not sell them. That SEC FORM 4 indicates Smith has 350,000 direct shares and about 300,000 derivative shares (options, convertible securities).
Unless the SEC Form 4 has not been published by Intel yet, I cannot find any documentation of the 225,000 share trade. Stacy Smith has been a very irregular seller and the last time he had anything other than RSU tax selling was in Jan 2014 at $28.xx per share.
I will watch for new SEC FORM 4 published next week to see the information on the Smith sell ... if it happened. I doubt that it means much.
"Do any of Yinz think I should start my own newsletter, or something, huh?"
LOL! YES!!! We need more humor.
You could call it "Marco Stock Alerts". marcostockalerts is available for only 99c per month through go dadddddy.
Sunday, 10/18, the "genius" read that Intel was down $2 in Germany from Friday close at $33.04. The "genius" read $31 from the ticker. 8-)
OMG Futures = Bloody Bloody RED
by marcopubio • Oct 18, 2015 11:44 PM
INTC down over $2.00 in Germany.
marco the super genius : - ))))) It's gonna bee a bad hair day for you Longies. Good idea, if you're Long, get drunk or high, because tomorrow Yinz are gonna lose HUGE.
Most of Ashraf's articles are phrased to generate clicks. Hyperbole and bad new generates more than "nothing new to see here" articles.
The article is, however, quite surprising in that it indicates a lack of understanding about financials that I thought Ashraf had. When Intel shifts production to a new process, the costs of developing that process are applied to the cost of the products produced. The new products have lower margins until the development cost is chewed up. Products on the old process have drained the development costs and therefore have higher margins.
You can see the dip from 14nm costs and it is already seeing the margin expansion.
Data for this Date Range
Sept. 30, 2015 62.99%
June 30, 2015 62.51%
March 31, 2015 60.48%
Dec. 31, 2014 65.36%