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Intel Corporation Message Board

alexander.dumbass 234 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 19, 2014 4:59 PM Member since: Nov 27, 2010
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  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Dec 19, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    "something to think about. "
    .... or you could read the Intel 10q, where Intel discusses the currency exposure in detail.

    "I think INTC is down mostly to the very bad China news."
    Could be. It was also option expiration Friday so there was some arbitraging too.

    Page 13 of the Intel Q3/2014 SEC 10q
    "Currency Exchange Rate Risk

    We are exposed to currency exchange rate risk and generally hedge our exposures with currency forward contracts, currency interest rate swaps, or currency options. Substantially all of our revenue is transacted in U.S. dollars. However, a significant amount of our operating expenditures and capital purchases is incurred in or exposed to other currencies, primarily the euro, the Japanese yen, the Israeli shekel, and the Chinese yuan. We have established balance sheet and forecasted transaction currency risk management programs to protect against fluctuations in fair value and the volatility of the functional currency equivalent of future cash flows caused by changes in exchange rates. Our non-U.S.-dollar-denominated investments in debt instruments and loans receivable are generally hedged with offsetting currency forward contracts or currency interest rate swaps. We may also hedge currency risk arising from funding foreign currency denominated forecasted investments. These programs reduce, but do not eliminate, the impact of currency exchange movements."

  • Reply to

    Intel and customized server chips

    by samiraphd Dec 19, 2014 1:31 PM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Dec 19, 2014 3:29 PM Flag

    At the Intel Investors meeting, Diane Bryant talked about customized server CPU.
    Slide #28 of her 35 slide presentation shows more information about custom servers.

    Bryant said that there was:
    10 customers engagements on full custom CPU
    Customer Feature Integration:
    4 in granley
    2 in development

    Custom CPU optimizations
    33 different SKUs

    System Design Services
    10 mother boards
    28 NICs

    Custom Logic Enabling (Grantley)
    7 node controllers
    3 FPGAs
    1 memory ASIC

    Variations on Standard Silicon
    100s of SKU

  • Reply to

    The word is out...

    by itakebackmyapology Dec 19, 2014 12:09 PM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Dec 19, 2014 12:13 PM Flag

    "Now it is really time to unload."
    Oh.
    When you said Intel would finish today at $33, you were just joking?

    When you said to unload at $25, you were just joking?
    When you said to unload at $27, you were just joking?
    When you said to unload at $28, you were just joking?
    When you said to unload at $30, you were just joking?
    When you said to unload at $33, you were just joking?
    When you said to unload at $34, you were just joking?
    When you said to unload at $35, you were just joking?

  • Reply to

    As long as we close below $37.90...

    by gooptionsprollc Dec 19, 2014 8:49 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Dec 19, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    "lol.. may i suggest investopedia for you to publish your educational articles. U are awesome..."
    No, I am not awesome and I have made my share of mistakes.
    But spotting obviously bogus recommendations does not take someone "awesome".

    IMO, again ...
    There are cases to be made for shorting Intel, but closing below its 52-week high is not one of them.
    Shorting INTC may turn out to make some money, but it will not be related to your analysis.

    Cheers.

  • Reply to

    As long as we close below $37.90...

    by gooptionsprollc Dec 19, 2014 8:49 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Dec 19, 2014 11:15 AM Flag

    "silly, but working right now... :) like your name suggests..."
    No it is not. You condition was a close under $37.90.
    Have we "closed below $37.90" yet?
    Seems like your condition is not effective until the close.

    8-)
    Notice that I did not say "shorting Intel" was silly,
    I said your short condition was silly, and it is.

  • Reply to

    As long as we close below $37.90...

    by gooptionsprollc Dec 19, 2014 8:49 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Dec 19, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    "As long as we close below $37.90.."
    As long as INTC does not go up today by $1.00 and closes below its 52-week high of $37.90, .... it is a "short candidate"?
    Very silly.

    There are cases to be made for shorting Intel, but closing below its 52-week high is not one of them.
    Shorting INTC may turn out to make some money, but it will not be related to your analysis.

  • Reply to

    China about to throw our all U.S. Tech companies

    by backbay_bstn Dec 18, 2014 11:31 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Dec 18, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    "Thats what we get for having a weak leader the past 6 years.."
    What difference would a "strong leader" make?
    Would China make a different decision?
    Why would China decide differently?

    I suspect that China is reacting to the NSA inserting "implants" into US manufactured hardware destined for China. China simply wants a secure supply of unbugged equipment.

    I am very, very interested in hearing your answer if you don't mind. My expectations are not high.

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Dec 17, 2014 4:51 PM Flag

    "[Surely, you jest. "
    No.

    "You are going to try to make the case that it's a financial hardship to be a Congressman???"
    No. I am going to make a case that these are normal job related expenses. It has nothing to do with hardship.

    "These guys have given themselves pay raise after pay raise while cutting benefits for kids, the working stiff and veterans"
    I hold myself to a higher standard than those who voted against the veterans .... I prefer to take a higher goal.

    "Their benefits after leaving the job are enormous. "
    Probably. The benefits of running a visible fight is too, even if you lose. ..... watch Wendy Davis.

    "Do they need yet another subsidy? Hell, no"
    I think you have to reimburse job related expenses. I guess we just differ.
    I would like to remove as many barriers for the less wealthy to be able to run for office and be able to support a family. I do not want to make it more likely that only the wealthy run for office. That is too common today.

  • Reply to

    Laughing at Wall Street

    by wallisweaver Dec 16, 2014 11:32 PM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Dec 17, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    "None of these will offset the positive impact that lower gas prices will have on US consumers."
    To be precise, you should say "COMPLETELY offset" because every "negative" has to "offset" a positive. When you subtract, your result is a smaller result. Then, what you are arguing about is which is bigger or smaller. At this point, no one really knows so you can declare victory because I cannot refute your opinion. Notice that I did not say "you are right".

    "The Republicans on Wall Street hate the idea of a tax cut that they doesn't go 97 percent to them."
    So you are saying the Republicans would HATE a tax cut where they only got 96%?
    Who is the person who is doing the calculations to confirm the percentage?

    NOTE: Before you go into monkey jumping mode 8-), I respect your right for you to have and express your opinions.

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Dec 17, 2014 10:58 AM Flag

    "Unbelievable. Toss the money-grubbing bums out."
    If I travel for my job, they pay normal and reasonable expenses. Ground transportation is definitely normal. Car rental rates in Washington DC at a tier 1 rental company seem to be $35 in the middle of winter which is $1.050 for a 30-day month. They will also reimburse me for gasoline, parking, ....

    If Washington DC is anything like the NY area, the rental rates double in the summer ...but weekly or monthly rates can mitigate expenses.

    $1,000 per month seems about right and reasonable for transportation.
    This subsidy is not a big deal for the wealthy but it is a big deal for a citizen who gave up a job to become congressman.

  • Reply to

    ARM Challenging Intel in the Server Market

    by theblueredmonk Dec 17, 2014 8:15 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Dec 17, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    A different "not Intel" server article but also a "not ARM" from a currently successful server vendor.

    Rackspace to Reduce Intel Reliance With IBM-Led Group

    ....... down in the Bloomberg article .....

    Not ARM

    Sullivan said the company has been surprised by how easy it has been to make Rackspace’s software work with the IBM-designed chips. He added that Rackspace chose to develop chips based on IBM’s Power rather than designs from U.K. semiconductor firm ARM Holdings Plc because those chips didn’t do well in tests. ARM chips have traditionally been seen as the main alternative to Intel processors.

    Rackspace’s involvement in OpenPower underlines how the technology industry has more options when contemplating alternatives to Intel.

    “Having more choice is actually great,” said Gordon MacKean, chairman of OpenPower and a director of engineering at Google. “We’ve got interest in anything that’s viable.”

  • Reply to

    Laughing at Wall Street

    by wallisweaver Dec 16, 2014 11:32 PM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Dec 16, 2014 11:47 PM Flag

    "But selling the idea that low oil prices are bad for the economy???"

    Everyone, worldwide, is trying to buy dollars and exit their local currency which makes the dollar stronger.
    A strong dollar makes US exports more expensive when they are purchased with the dear dollars.
    US exported products then stop selling.

    Many companies and countries that have loans that are to be repaid in dollars so those companies and countries face a larger and growing repayment bill as the dollar strengthens.

    There are many complex impacts, both good and bad. All I am saying is that any major economic disruption in the status quo disrupts relationships.

  • The puns came easy ...

    "South Dakota has yanked its "Don't Jerk and Drive" ad campaign for reasons that are totally obvious to anyone who's ever been 13 years old: It's reminiscent of the (disturbingly popular) pastime of masturbating while driving."

  • Reply to

    INTC PE too high

    by back_bay_professor Dec 7, 2014 11:33 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Dec 16, 2014 9:48 AM Flag

    "no, I get tired of Waldo's nonsense"
    Wallis has been upset at things I have said too.
    There is great nonsense on both sides.
    More than once, I have toyed with the idea that both extremes are from just one person.

    IMO, the hyper-bullish are just as hard to believe as the hyper-bearish. The personal, political, societal insults are out of place here unless they affect Intel financials.

    I pointed out the SQQQ vs INTC comparisons because SQQQ did really well during the 2 week time period you chose. Your comments did not however reflect the drop from $46 taken right before.

    I guess you still own sqqq through the $46 pop. Sorry.

    When would be a good "chart time" to look at XLE?

  • Reply to

    INTC PE too high

    by back_bay_professor Dec 7, 2014 11:33 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Dec 15, 2014 10:07 PM Flag

    wdblawgrow,
    "I don't invest in the sqqq or the tqqq,I trade them and flip back and forth depending on the charts ..... "

    Wonderful. That is what I expected. I did not suggest anything else. Since you indicated you owned sqqq at higher than current prices, I just asked if you were able to exit when sqqq went up 30% into the mid-$40's. Notice that I did not use the word "invest".

    The various performance comparisons between Intel and sqqq was to make the same point that you indicate. Vehicles like sqqq are wonderful if you are on the correct side of the two week swings but can be deadly if you miss.

  • Reply to

    INTC PE too high

    by back_bay_professor Dec 7, 2014 11:33 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Dec 14, 2014 5:01 PM Flag

    "The bidding is stoked by fear of possible violence in oil-producing countries, notably Iran."
    " True or false? "
    Me no know.
    All are possibilities .... in part ... or in total. I doubt there is anyway to really know with any confidence.

  • Reply to

    INTC PE too high

    by back_bay_professor Dec 7, 2014 11:33 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Dec 13, 2014 4:39 PM Flag

    " pumped up by tankers sitting offshore creating artificial demand....warehouses run by WS packed with metal commodities...."
    I always like to dig a little into vague or general statements like this and I was rather surprised at the numbers. thanks

    There is 2 bil barrels capacity in tankers and about 90 mil barrels/day consumption ... if my reading was correct. That means their is about 22 days of consumption capacity in the tankers. It is unclear how many barrels get into the system via pipeline, rail, truck, ... but a 22 day capacity in tankers does not seem like a sufficient to pressure the market one way or the other.

    When crude drops from $100 to $60, there are a number of sources where the cost to extract is higher and they will go off the market.

    But, I still think that the Saudis are applying pressure to Putin after he passed up opportunities to change his behavior.

    From The Telegraph 27 Aug 2013
    Saudis offer Russia secret oil deal if it drops Syria

    Saudi Arabia has secretly offered Russia a sweeping deal to control the global oil market and safeguard Russia’s gas contracts, if the Kremlin backs away from the Assad regime in Syria.

    The revelations come amid high tension in the Middle East, with US, British, and French warship poised for missile strikes in Syria. Iran has threatened to retaliate.

    The strategic jitters pushed Brent crude prices to a five-month high of $112 a barrel. “We are only one incident away from a serious oil spike. The market is a lot tighter than people think,” said Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review.

    Leaked transcripts of a closed-door meeting between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan shed an extraordinary light on the hard-nosed Realpolitik of the two sides.

    .... and more .....
    .... and a number of Aug 2013 articles .....
    IMO, the Saudis turned the faucet toward the "cold" to cool of Putin.

  • Reply to

    INTC PE too high

    by back_bay_professor Dec 7, 2014 11:33 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Dec 13, 2014 1:42 PM Flag

    "a very good call, the sqqq is now up 10 percent since 11/28/14"
    True for those two week SQQQ trading points. Did you exit sqqq when it was up in the mid-$40's or did you ride it all the way back down? SQQQ can be a great choice if you get the dates correct.

    BUT, if you look at other time periods ... an investment in INTC has been a better choice (historically ... but not likely so in the future).
    TIME SQQQ INTC
    1 day +3.76% -1.36%
    5 days +7.06% -3.56%
    1 month -1.24% +8.54% (INTC becomes the better choice)
    3 months -15.56% +4.89%
    6 months -32.31% +21.29%
    1 year -52.12% +49.16%
    2 years -81.23% +76.82%
    5 years -97.46% +77.31% (SQQQ was created in 2010, I think so this is really since Feb 2010)

    1 year ago INTC closed at $24.29.

    1 year has turned $10,000 of SQQQ into $4788.00 plus no dividends (down 52.12%).
    1 year has turned $10,000 of INTC into $14,916.00 plus $370 in dividends on the original 411 shares(up 49.16%).
    Is my math correct?

  • Reply to

    INTC PE too high

    by back_bay_professor Dec 7, 2014 11:33 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Dec 13, 2014 1:02 PM Flag

    "18 PE high for Intel."
    At $36.22 Yahoo currently has the PE Ratio at 17.25 rather than 18. If you round, it should be 17 and not 18.

    The 42 analysts covering Intel have a 2014 EPS low of $2.21 and a high of $2.28 ... a 7 cent range. At the low EPS of $2.21, the 2014 EPS is expected to be 16.4 in 4 weeks.

    The average 2015 EPS is expected to be $2.38 which would imply a PE ratio of 15.2.

    "INTC going up basically from multiple expansion. Smart $$ waiting for a 10%+ correction before buying in. "
    I sold my trading portion at $33.33, the first time through and I have been waiting for $30 to deploy again (means I am not exactly "pumping" others to .... "buy"). I maintain a long position so I guess I am only "semi-smart".

    I do seriously doubt that you know what the "smart" money is doing or not doing. You may know, but I simply doubt it.

    "Very risky putting fresh $$ in at these levels."
    Many were saying this at $25.
    Many were saying this at $27.
    Many were saying this at $29.
    Many were saying this at $30.
    Many were saying this at $33 (and I know a semi-Smart guy who sold some here).
    Many were saying this at $35.
    The risk/reward ratio become less favorable but owning Intel, with a sub-1.0 BETA is hardly "risky". It should generally track the market with its 2.5% dividend.

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Dec 11, 2014 9:29 PM Flag

    "While the spike to $4.00 is correct"
    The spike was to $4.43. The price went beyond $4.00.

    "you fail to mention the geo political cause the forced the spike and the fact it was temporary."
    "Geo political" events are always involved. "Failing to mention" extenuating circumstances is always key in assigning unfair "blame". Even if the President is named "Obama" and you want to assign "explicit intent" to his actions.

    "Obama, on the other hand with his push for alternative energy and restrictive policy of federal drilling, did everything he possibly could to increase gas prices."
    Alternative energy ... yes.
    Restrictive policy of federal drilling ... we disagree and that is OK.
    [Obama] Did everything he possibly could to increase gas prices .... disagree again.

    Obama did everything he could to stop it [fracking] ... what did he do to stop fracking? Obama instructed the BLM to allow fracking on BLM lands. If he did "everything" then why allow BLM land access? That makes your "everything" statement wrong ... doesn't it?

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