Market seemed to be responding to restatement of extremely high May housing numbers and an 8.1% lower June number than the higher May number.
I would expect the buyers included index ETF, sector ETF, value ETF, mutual funds for index, value and sector. When the 14nm production kicks into full gear, the Intel margins should expand and lower power consumption should expand the TAM and revenues. .
Intel has been up more than down all year. What are you talking about.
Last 30 days
SP500 up 2%
INTC up 13%
itakebackmyapology has a 100% accuracy record.
On days Intel is down, he is 100% right.
On days Intel is up, he is 100% wrong.
Mixed about any change. If changed, my guess would be 2.5 cents in November.
Announcement? My expectations would be today ... or at least this week.
Management ranked dividends above buy backs, so with a big buy back, that would imply a big bump to complement the $20bil.
Management has a 40% cash flow target and they are currently at 48% TTM so that would imply no bump or possibly small bump.
Intel has historically announced dividend increases in advance (by a month or so) with a press release and since that has not happened yet, that would imply no bump .... but new management and maybe they will do it differently. There is something to be said for some unpredictable behavior. Change would certainly mess up the arbitragers.
Seems like Sherry's Walmart calculator was accurate for the calculations entered.
The calculations probably need some adjustment for the 62% of the shares that are owned by institutions. Those shares are not likely for sale at the same rate.
Those shares that are owned by index and sector ETF are definitely not in play.
HFT traders will likely double the trading volumes by front running the large orders.
A substantial part of the volume will take place in dark pools and will add to the average volume since they are not counted. That will make your argument stronger.
One simple way of looking at a potential impact would be to compare the buyback with the growing short interest when the short interest was growing from 100,000,000 shares to the peak of 220,000,000 shares short.
There is one case that shows how Intel conducts their buyback operation. The program was documented as part of a Lehman Bros. lawsuit against Intel. I asked Intel IR about buyback programs a couple years ago (but the process might have changed) and IR indicated that they hired an agent.
In November 2009, representatives of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (Lehman) advised us informally that the Lehman bankruptcy estate was considering a claim against us arising from a 2008 contract between Intel and Lehman Brothers OTC Derivatives Inc. (Lehman OTC). Under the terms of the 2008 contract, Intel prepaid $1.0 billion to Lehman OTC, in exchange for which Lehman OTC was required to purchase and deliver to Intel the number of shares of Intel common stock that could be purchased for $1.0 billion at the volume-weighted average price for the period August 26, 2008 to September 26, 2008. Lehman OTC's performance under the contract was secured by $1.0 billion of cash collateral. Under the terms of the contract, Lehman OTC was obligated to deliver approximately 50 million shares of our common stock to us on September 29, 2008. Lehman failed to deliver any shares of our common stock, and we exercised our right to setoff against the $1.0 billion collateral. Lehman OTC has not initiated any action against us to date, but in February 2010, Lehman served a subpoena on us in connection with this transaction. In September 2010, we entered into an agreement with Lehman that tolls any applicable statutes of limitations for 90 days and precludes the parties from commencing any formal proceedings to prosecute any claims against each other in any forum during that period. In October 2010, Lehman demanded that Intel pay it at least $417 million. We continue to believe that we acted appropriately under our agreement with Lehman OTC, and we intend to defend any claim to the contrary. We have agreed to extend the tolling agreement twice, and it is now in effect through May 2011
CNBC heads were suggesting that the forecast earnings did not contain a Nokia loss of 8 cents. Seems like revenue and earnings were in line with expectations.
Looks like there is someone SELLING their Friday $34 CALLS and BUYING AUG $33 CALLS for a $1.00 DEBIT. The trading is probably being affected by the AT the money and IN THE money options. The OMM is involved and with the dividend announcement pending, there is lots of arbitraging posturing.
I don't agree with Russ on some of his possible schemes either, but I was surprised to see the impact of capex and depreciation on the bottom line. If his numbers are correct, EPS can expand very rapidly if depreciation stabilizes or drops.
As for the extra fab space, I think that the only extra fab is the fab42 shell. Intel did something similar for the Rio Rancho fab11 building. Intel built out the entire fab11 building shell and then only occupied 1 quadrant. IMO, fab42 was not stupidity but a decision to have the long lead time permitting and construction completed so the building could be fired up with "copy exact" 14nm process quickly. Intel could not accept any large customer business IF it negatively impacted existing customers. I think that may be what TSMC has done.
"You think stocks trade on some math formula?"
Hmmmm. Then why did you chose "$40 .... $45 ... and $50 by Christmas targets" instead of "$50 .... $60 ... and $70" .... or "$140 .... $145 ... and $150". I asked how you chose your numbers.
"I am NOT interested in trying to point out to your kind that PEs go up and down based upon how growth is seen in a company."
I noticed. I didn't get the answer I expected, but it is not surprising.
"If you do not think so just go short and quit your crying."
I am long and plan to stay long. I did sell a portion of my holding at $33.33 because I was expecting INTC to bounce off $30 a couple times. Ooops. I was just interested in your analysis as part of my due diligence.
8-) thanks for your explanation.
Can you show your math on the short issue and how you reach your numbers ?
How many shares short do you think would be a "normal" number for Intel?
I was interested to see how you arrived at your $40 .... $45 ... and $50 buy Christmas targets.
If Intel buys back $4bil of shares, the number of shares depends on the price of the shares but it is somewhere in the area of 1.5m shares per trading day (if my calculations are correct). When Intel dropped from $29 to $20 the last time, the short interest increased by 1 mil shares per trading day at the highest rate and many times was in the 500,000 shares per day.
The price might be affected by the $4bil share buyback.
"You referred him to a wild Intel pumper as if that's all he needed to do to satisy his concern."
Your opinion. I expected williamdavis960 to perform due diligence, keep what makes sense and discard the rest.
"Your daily hpocrisy is just flat disgusting, but hey, you are who you are."
Hypocrisy .... again just your opinion.
"You are who you are" ... I could not agree more.
"You act like Russ is an authority?"
How so? I simply said there was some information in the article.
Russ Fischer's Seeking Alpha article deals with the topic in detail.
"Intel: Latent Profitability "
Marco connects to the net through a 1200baud modem and only gets 20 minute delay quotes. His taunts are also delayed.
I would expect the Intel BOD to do something by Wednesday evening if they decide to raise the dividend for this quarter.
"Intel has to raise...going on 3 years now."
Intel does not have to raise. The time frame "3 years" is meaningless. The shareholder value returned during the last 1 year has made those betting against Intel stammering.
FROM MY JULY 17th reply ....
No raise in dividend? by genem7169 •Jul 17, 2014 10:40 AM .
alexander • Jul 17, 2014 11:35 AM
I don't expect any dividend action, but Stacy Smith said that Intel priorities were:
1. invest in the business FIRST
2. generate shareholder return through the dividend
3. and then to return cash to shareholders via stock repurchases.
Since the buyback was so aggressive, it might imply the BOD are expected to add to the dividend too.