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Intel Corporation Message Board

alexander.dumbass 412 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 28, 2014 10:23 AM Member since: Nov 27, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Cramer bashes Covello...what a riot.

    by twobitlouie Aug 18, 2014 10:23 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 18, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    Seems like a "frontal attack" on semi conductors did not work too well for him so he downgraded the whole SOXX and gave all his negatives. Intel is 9.5% of the SOXX. The SOXL, SOXS, ..... so all the sympathetic negative trading affects Intel.

    The PUT/CALL ratio is currently 1.78 and normally is expected to be in the 0.50 range. Option activity does not seem to be very large but the 5,000 contract put option series (2015) are all in the $30 to $28 range. The trading behavior implies PUT buying so it appears to be cheap insurance for a big sell off.

  • Reply to

    INTC underperforming badly today

    by backbay_bstn Aug 18, 2014 10:34 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 18, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    Intel has been wildly outperforming the market during the last 17 minutes and 42 seconds.

  • Reply to

    Intel up since its August 8 14nm event.

    by paul.ottelini Aug 18, 2014 10:01 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 18, 2014 10:16 AM Flag

    Day range: $33.97 - $34.30
    Bounced off $34 OPTION STRIKE area and chugged back up to STRIKE + DIVIDEND.
    PUT/CALL option ratio is currently 1.40 which indicates 3x as many put options as "normal".

    I suspect that the INTC should fall in line with the market and be up .... as soon as it breaks the $34.22 related arbitraging.

  • Reply to

    California's Kill Switch Is A Bad Idea

    by mega.hurts Aug 16, 2014 10:16 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 17, 2014 12:50 PM Flag

    "motivation for smartphone theft will decrease sharply when the ASP's of smartphones drops below $200 and even further when they drop near $100. "
    Yep! That will change the risk/reward ratio and make the thefts and especially armed robberies really drop.

  • Reply to

    California's Kill Switch Is A Bad Idea

    by mega.hurts Aug 16, 2014 10:16 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 17, 2014 9:42 AM Flag

    "where does the kill switch stop?"
    There is an interesting article from SFWEEKLY "The Life of a Stolen Phone" which was taken home by a BART cop. The article points out incentives that cause the theft rate to rise ... increased revenue/profits for everyone in the industry. The phone is typically the link to the person's account, personal information, .... and the other devices are (I think) IO ports through the smartphone nearby. They don't have as much personal information that makes the ID vulnerable.

    The hard wired kill switch is just a way to lower the market value of the stolen device so they are not taken. I doubt that the mandated hard wired kill switches will become a universal answer.

    CLIP ... incentives ....
    "The manufacturer profits by hawking a replacement phone; the carrier profits double, by locking the crime victim into a new contract, then opening an account with whomever ends up with the stolen phone. Telecom companies even profit from the specter of phone theft, by selling expensive insurance policies to protect their users."

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 15, 2014 7:10 PM Flag

    It will be interesting.
    Premiums on health insurance exchanges are forecast to rise nationally by an average of 7.5 percent next year, according to a new analysis (Health Research Institute at Price Waterhouse Coopers). It would have been smaller but some states will be hit with larger increases to cover failure to expand Medicaid coverage. However, when the "we did not expand Medicaid" states start publishing their increases, the 7.5% is likely to increase.

    The $716 billion cut from Medicare they moved to cover Medicaid expansion will be used to pay Medicaid costs ONLY in states that expanded.

    States that did not expand will see drop in Medicare funding and increased non-payment problems. Premiums will go up to cover the increased medical bill non-payments.

    It looks like a 5% increase if your state adopted Medicaid expansion and 10% increase if your state did not expand. Many of the non-expanding states have not published their new figures yet, so Indiana has the largest increase so far.

    Oregon -2.5% DROP.
    California +4% increase.

    Indiana +15.4% increase. (highest so far reporting rate changes for 2015)

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 15, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    University of Toronto, Andres Lozano gave a very interesting TED TALK on the use of deep brain stimulation for treating Parkinson's, depression and shaking symptoms. Bio solutions are making stunning progress. He was able to control the symptoms of a young boy with dystonia which had twisted his body to the point where he was only able to crawl on his stomach.

    Amazing stuff.

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 15, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    Yesterday, Intel had a HIGH/LOW of $34.23 / $33.74
    Today's HIGH/LOW range so far is $34.21 / $33.71.

    A high of STRIKE ($34.00) plus DIVIDEND, to
    a low of STRIKE ($33.50) plus DIVIDEND.

    IMO, the option market maker continues to trade to prepare from the quarterly "arbitrage attack". This last quarter he had to absorb 1.2mil contracts which is the size of liquidity he has to deal with. This drains the BETA and causes the Intel trading price support/resistance points.

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 15, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    "Starts" 8-)
    Intel has always been tinkering with Biometrics, but Otellini accelerated this effort years ago. The collections of companies are starting to coalesce into real products that make a difference.

    The Michael J. Fox Foundation and Intel Join Forces to Improve Parkinson's Disease Monitoring and Treatment through Advanced Technologies
    Intel Newsroom on Aug 13, 2014 9:15:02 AM

    Intel acquiring gesture recognition start-up InVision Biometrics

    Intel acquires Idesia Biometrics

    Biometric Gun Safety at Your Fingertips
    Boulder, Colorado, student and Intel International Science and Engineering Fair (Intel ISEF)1 2013 Grand Award winner Kai Kloepfer invents a biometric electromechanical firearm safety solution that identifies a registered user’s fingerprint to permit or deny access to gun operation.

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 15, 2014 1:07 PM Flag

    "Stop it, stop it, stop it already, okay? That was Karen's stuff. So she got a little carried away and left a couple or three tiny things out. I betcha yer knot perfect either."

    I am NOT perfect, but this was a "newbie" error. If that is "Karen's stuff" then just walk her through the new numbers and see if a "genius" can also be a patient, respectful teacher. She will appreciate it. It is an easy error to make for a beginner.

    Intel only traded FIVE days above $140 shortly after the 2:1 split was announced. March 2000. Intel only traded above $130 for 19 trading days: March 17th through Apr. 12th.

    Whenever you see someone talking about "INTEL" and "$140 stock price" in the same sentence, you can quickly assume they are inexperienced.

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 15, 2014 1:55 AM Flag

    "Yinz dew da math, okay?"
    A little. Your math seems correct. "Yinz" seems to have messed up on your facts. Not a big surprise. 8-)

    You might want to correct some of your errors if you want it to be more accurate. I included a couple ideas for you, if you want to try making your INTC calculations look worse.

    1. Your first error is forgetting to include the 2:1 stock split on July 31, 2000. Since Mar. 2000 shares would be doubled, you can divide the $145.38 by 2 to get the adjusted stock price for comparison. That was a pretty fundamental goof.

    Mar, 2000 $72.69 (adjusted down for 2:1 split)
    Aug 2014 $33.94

    2. If you are going to the trouble of adjusting for the CPI, then you probably should include the $6.594 per share in INTC issued dividends. You probably just want to add the dividends back in but there was likely some income on those that probably matched much of the CPI change.

    Mar, 2000 $72.69
    Aug 2014 $40.534 (adjusted up for $6.954 in dividends)

    3. If you think that anyone who bought in March 2000 still owns shares, then you can make the comparison look worse than a CPI change. Why not compare it to some alternative investment that did really good during that time. Maybe SP500. The SPY closed at $196.76 and in March 2000, SPY was $106.09. Up 90%. Or find the BEST performing stock over that period.

    4. There was also $33.506 in dividends issued by SPY, so you can make it even worse, if you chose to go through those calculations.

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 14, 2014 3:28 PM Flag

    "$50 per share rather quickly"
    It really depends on your definition of "quickly". IMO, STUNNING, surprise news would be required. Otherwise, it will be a slow grind as revenues increase. Think "years".

    "Very Nice Dividend Now"
    Yep.

    "Now, I can see a Special dividend on the way with all That Cash on hand"
    Nope. Won't happen.
    They would apply cash toward debt before a one-time special dividend.

  • Reply to

    The Samsung Galaxy Alpha

    by theblueredmonk Aug 13, 2014 9:31 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 14, 2014 12:27 PM Flag

    "20nm base band"
    Does it make sense for the base band to be the first 20nm component?
    What can be gleaned from the first 20nm part being a base band component rather than any other part?
    Just curious.

  • Reply to

    I told you buy OVTI and sell INTCFILTH

    by itakebackmyapology Aug 13, 2014 4:43 PM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 14, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    "Insider trading!!! "
    The thought of someone posting unsophisticated messages like these being an insider. Very, very unlikely. 8-) He is just excited about being right.

    "Give a monkey enough darts and they’ll ....." pick a buy-out target.

  • Reply to

    I told you buy OVTI and sell INTCFILTH

    by itakebackmyapology Aug 13, 2014 4:43 PM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 14, 2014 11:38 AM Flag

    "Look at OVTI today and then try bashing me."
    OK .... sort of. I think I will just add some extra OVTI information. It looks like you stumbled blindly into a buyout offer shortly before it leaked to the public. I am betting that OVTI does not do as well in the future as over the past month. 8-)

    "9:03 am OmniVision receives non-binding acquisition proposal from Hua Capital Management for $29.00/share (stock halted)"

    Congratulations on your success. It seems to have done wonders for your confidence after being wrong about Intel for so long. You had great luck picking a buy-out target.

    Please describe your future strategy for the funds.

    When do you sell OVTI?
    What do you do with the cash?

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 13, 2014 11:50 PM Flag

    "This means new revenues and growing earnings."
    Paying 5.7x revenue seems rather high for expansion. Intel is after something other than revenues. I think 2x is closer to expectation.

    The earnings history has not been made public so it is unclear whether the impact will be positive or negative.

    I suspect they are acquire IP blocks for their foundry or patents for negotiation. If the unit is profitable, it might help the mobile group out.

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 13, 2014 4:38 PM Flag

    "Still disappointed the CFO has not raised the dividend in 3 years"
    The "CFO" does not "raise" the dividend. The BOARD OF DIRECTORS "authorizes" a dividend increase as recommended by the company management team. There is no way you can know whether the CFO recommended a dividend increase or not.
    Maybe he did recommended an increase.
    Maybe he didn't.

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 13, 2014 4:12 PM Flag

    $34.23 AH. 8-) My $33.22 guess was just a TYPO.

  • Reply to

    SELL NOW BEFORE THE DIP!!

    by sam.payson Aug 13, 2014 2:32 PM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 13, 2014 2:53 PM Flag

    "Buy low, sell high."
    "The rules of gravity still apply. "
    "WHAT GOES UP MUST COME DOWN!"

    Your "rule" filled argument is "very" persuasive. 8-)

    The question is .... why are the shares behaving this way?
    IMO, it is not short covering nor buyback driven.

  • Reply to

    Alex

    by wallisweaver Aug 13, 2014 11:40 AM
    alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 13, 2014 2:22 PM Flag

    If I were more wrong, I could be a genius. 8-)

    Intel is now out performing the market indices by a substantial margin. It is "breaking the bonds of gravity" one right after the other.

    IMO, it is not short covering but is buying. Intel does not show up on the WSJ buy on weakness or sell on strength lists so ...... it does not look like panic/urgent buying .... like short covering, ....

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